ATP Paris Day 4 Predictions

Tennis fans are in store for a terrific day of action on Thursday at ATP Paris as all eight Round of 16 matches will take the court in the capital of France. 11 of the top 15 seeds remain alive in the draw, including No. 2 seed Jannik Sinner, who squares off against the always-tricky Francisco Cerundolo. As always, we at LWOT preview and predict every match on the slate, with No. 5 Ben Shelton vs No. 12 Andrey Rublev featuring in a separate article. But who will advance to the quarterfinals?

ATP Paris Day 4 Predictions

Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik

Head-to-Head: Fritz 3-3 Bublik

The ever-dangerous Alexander Bublik squares off against No. 4 Taylor Fritz in the Round of 16 in Paris. The two have split their six encounters, though Bublik has not beaten the American since 2021. Both men have played solid tennis this year and have the firepower to compete with anyone on an indoor hardcourt. When both are playing at their absolute best, I would honestly consider this match a coin flip. That said, Bublik is susceptible to the leaky game (or set), and against one of the top workhorses on the ATP Tour, that leaves you very little room for error.

Prediction: Fritz in 2

Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov

Head-to-Head: de Minaur 1-2 Khachanov

As the 2025 tennis season winds down, Alex de Minaur squares off against Karen Khachanov in a top-ten Round of 16 battle. Khachanov’s lone Masters 1000 title came on the indoor courts of ATP Paris back in 2018. However, he has limped down the stretch of the 2025 season. Before his two wins this week, Khachanov’s last Tour win came in the first round of the US Open. On the other hand, de Minaur reached the quarters in Shanghai and semis in Beijing and Vienna. He has been absolute nails on hard courts this season, posting a 41-13 record. I’ll ride with the better, more in-form player.

Prediction: de Minaur in 3

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Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot

Head-to-Head: first meeting

What a month it has been for 26-year-old Valentin Vacherot. He entered October ranked No. 204 in the world with one career match win in a Masters 1000 series. Heading into this ATP Paris Round of 16 match, Vacherot is No. 37 in the live rankings and has racked up an additional nine master series wins. His level has been tremendous as he continues to prove that his run in Shanghai was not a one-hit wonder.

Cameron Norrie, who is likely to finish the season with his worst winning percentage since 2020, also enters this match off a memorable result: beating Carlos Alcaraz. The Brit took down the World No. 1 in three sets, marking his first victory over a No. 1-ranked player. This Norrie vs Vacherot matchup may not have the star power of some of the other Round of 16 encounters, but expect the tennis to be scintillating. If Vacherot continues to hit with power and aggression at small targets, he is going to be a tough out for anyone.

Prediction: Vacherot in 3

Jannik Sinner vs Francisco Cerundolo

Head-to-Head: Sinner 3-2 Cerundolo

An early exit in Paris from Carlos Alcaraz has opened the door for Jannik Sinner to reclaim the World No. 1 spot. If he wasn’t already motivated at the only Masters 1000 series event where he has yet to reach the fourth round, now there will be no questions. Francisco Cerundolo has caused the Italian some trouble in the past. However, his only non-retirement win over Sinner was on the clay over two years ago. Sinner on indoor hard courts is, in my opinion, the most dangerous player in the world. He rolls.

Prediction: Sinner in 2

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