Howe’s dilemma as Newcastle’s Saudi owners can’t ignore case to sell Isak

Amid the jungle of super-skyscrapers dominating Riyadh’s financial district, one building soars above the rest. From the higher floors of the 385-metre PIF Tower, employees can plot their next deal while gazing down on a glass-curtained canopy of concrete, steel and polished marble.

For Yasir al-Rumayyan, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the chair of Newcastle United, the top of this striking, 80-storey crystalline structure is a place where metaphorical blue-sky thinking meets reality.

The bad news for Eddie Howe is that the business case for selling Alexander Isak to Liverpool this summer is surely far too persuasive for Rumayyan and his colleagues to ignore.

In an ideal world Newcastle’s manager would keep the Sweden centre-forward while acquiring the France Under-21 striker Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt before a Champions League campaign. Given that Liverpool, like Newcastle, have made contact with Eintracht over Ekitike and seem determined to acquire the Frenchman or Isak that scenario seems unlikely.

The message from Newcastle – and it is said to originate “right from the very top” in Riyadh – has consistently been that Isak will not be sold this year. Indeed, the word is that Howe wants to deviate from his preferred, winger-heavy 4-3-3 and play Isak and Ekitike in attacking tandem.

But, even before contemplating the reality that insisting something or someone is not for sale at any price is frequently a precursor to driving a hard bargain, that supposed stance begs quite a few questions.

View image in fullscreen Hugo Ekitike, who scored 22 goals last season for Eintracht Frankfurt, has already been a target twice for Eddie Howe at Newcastle. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA-EFE

First and foremost why, shortly after Howe and club officials met Isak’s agent, did Newcastle suddenly turn their attention from potential £30m replacements for Isak’s former understudy Callum Wilson to more expensive targets and end up offering Eintracht Frankfurt approaching £70m for Ekitike? Was it really pure coincidence?

And why has there not been any announcement of Isak entering long-mooted summer negotiations to extend a contract that runs until 2028? Even if a player who scored 23 goals in 34 Premier League appearances last season declined to sign, a deal could surely be discussed.

Although Isak is extremely well paid at about £150,000 a week, talks regarding a planned pay increase last summer were postponed as Newcastle struggled to stay on the right side of Premier League spending rules. Much improved terms seem his for the taking now but maybe that moment has passed and Isak would rather move to pastures new.

Newcastle have long suspected that he would decline an extension this summer, and their original plan was to keep him for one more season and sell high in 12 months. But Ekitike’s wages would almost certainly be slightly cheaper and, having just turned 23, he is almost three years younger than Isak. Throw in some stylistic similarities in the pair’s games – for a start both like to drift to the left and suit counterattacking tactics – and the fact that Ekitike is less injury prone and the case for doing a deal with Liverpool becomes ever more persuasive.

Then there’s Howe’s relationship with Richard Hughes. Newcastle’s manager and Liverpool’s sporting director are good friends, stemming from their days together at Bournemouth. Although Liverpool deny making a formal approach for Isak, the fact that intermediaries have subtly made clear that Arne Slot’s board would be prepared to pay about £120m for Howe’s prize possession suggests they have received encouragement, however tacit, from someone, somewhere.

View image in fullscreen Eddie Howe (left) welcomes new signing Anthony Elanga to Newcastle, but how many other players will the club manage to sign this summer? Photograph: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United/Getty Images

With Paul Mitchell having stepped down as Newcastle’s sporting director this summer and Darren Eales, the chief executive, due to depart on health grounds, Andy Howe, the manager’s nephew, has a key role in recruitment. It may or may not be significant that he also knows Hughes well.

skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to Football Daily Free daily newsletter Kick off your evenings with the Guardian's take on the world of football Enter your email address Sign up Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy . We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion

With Darwin Núñez seemingly likely to join Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hilal or Napoli, Liverpool’s twin interest in Isak and Ekitike means it is near impossible to envisage both players wearing black-and-white stripes next season.

Given PIF’s gargantuan wealth it might all be very different without profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) but those spending regulations have arguably made selling well even more important than buying cleverly.

Newcastle narrowly avoided a PSR breach last June and, even though their financial position is healthier, the club’s commercial revenue streams still have some catching up to do with those of Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.

With Newcastle having paid Nottingham Forest £55m for the Sweden right-winger Anthony Elanga this summer, they cannot spend big without selling smartly. Considering Howe needs a right-sided central defender and a goalkeeper – negotiations with Burnley are inching towards a £30m-plus deal for James Trafford – in addition to replacing the Leeds-bound Sean Longstaff in midfield, something is going to have to give.

Accordingly if Newcastle can sell Isak for almost double the near-£65m they paid Real Sociedad for him it would reflect extremely well on their PSR balance sheet. The attendant financial wriggle room would help fund the purchase of a central striker as cover for Ekitike or whoever joins as the first choice, and maybe even a move for Coventry’s Jack Rudoni, an attacking midfielder much coveted by Howe.

It all leaves the ball firmly in Eintracht’s court. The German club are noted as tough negotiators and hope for more than Ekitike’s £87m release clause. Bundesliga strikers have not always fared overly well in the Premier League but the Frenchman scored 22 goals last season, including 15 in the league to help Eintracht qualify for the Champions League. In 2022 he was Newcastle’s top attacking target, ahead of even Isak. Howe has twice tried, and failed, to buy him.

Liverpool possess the pulling power and financial clout to tempt Ekitike to play for Slot rather than Howe but is Isak the striker Slot really wants?

One thing is clear. If Newcastle cannot sign Ekitike the stack of cards collapses and it becomes impossible to imagine anyone in PIF Tower approving Isak’s sale.

Click here to read article