ATP Montreal Best Bets Including Fonseca vs Shelton

The ATP Montreal tournament continues with the Round of 16 on Sunday. The 1,000-point tournament flows into the 2026 U.S. Open and would therefore be valuable in any year or tennis season. It is especially valuable in 2026 because nine of the top 10 seeds aren’t around in what has been a hollowed-out tournament. ATP Montreal offers a chance to players outside the top 20 and top 30 to gain a ton of ranking points and, for some, to gain a seeded position in New York in a few weeks. There is plenty at stake, which heightens the intrigue and the drama surrounding Canada’s ATP Tour showcase in summer. LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.

ATP Montreal

Tallon Griekspoor – Daniel Merida Aguilar: 12:30 EST

H2H: 0-0

This ATP Montreal match reflects the up-for-grabs nature of this tournament and a lot of the matches within it. Virtually no one predicted that this would be a Round of 16 matchup. These two players entered Canada outside the ATP top 60. One will be in the quarterfinals and will move substantially up the rankings list. It’s a very big match for both men. Who will handle the pressure? Tallon Griekspoor knocked out No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev. Daniel Merida Aguilar beat Ugo Humbert and Alex Michelsen.

Best Bet to Make

Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.

Parlay/hedge options: Griekspoor moneyline at 1.81 at @1xbet, Merida Aguilar +1.5 sets at 1.40 at @10bet

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.

The fact that only one top-10 seed is left in the Round of 16 means you’re going to see very unpredictable and unexpected matches such as this. Neither player is used to this kind of spotlight or pressure in a 1,000-point tournament such as ATP Montreal. It’s a fragile match, exactly the kind of match you shouldn’t bet on. If you absolutely insist on a bet, make it over 2.5 sets precisely because it feels so uncertain.

That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.

Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.27 @betsson

Learner Tien – Thiago Agustin Tirante: 14:00 EST

H2H: 0-0

Thiago Agustin Tirante, like Griekspoor and Merida Aguilar (mentioned above), entered ATP Montreal ranked outside the top 60. By making the Round of 16, Tirante has cracked the ATP top 50 in the live rankings. Now he gets a chance to take on a top-20 player, Learner Tien, to make a bigger climb up the rankings. Tirante upset No. 3 seed Taylor Fritz earlier this week in Canada. Can he keep the momentum going?

Best Bet to Make

Parlay/hedge options: Tien moneyline at 1.41 at @betfair, Tirante +4.5 games at 1.57 at @10bet

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – you should not bet more than half a unit on this match.

The key point to make about the Tirante win over Fritz is that Fritz just won ATP Washington and was tired. Tirante took advantage, and full credit to him for doing that, but Fritz was not in a good position there. We think that win is overvalued and that Tien will win this match in straight sets. Don’t bet too much on the outcome, though.

That being said, betting on Tien winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make

Value bet/ the best odds: Tien winning 2:0 at 2.00 @10bet

Joao Fonseca – Ben Shelton: 18:00 EST

H2H: 0-1

This ATP Montreal match is the big one, the centerpiece of the Sunday card in Canada. A lot of tennis experts would tell you the winner of this battle will go into the quarterfinals as the favorite to win the whole tournament. Rafael Jodar might have something to say about that, but it’s a legitimate line of analysis. It could certainly happen. These two guys are extremely talented and hit the ball bigger than most of the other players left in the field. Let’s get it on.

Best Bet to Make

Parlay/hedge options: Shelton +1.5 games at 1.60 at @bet-at-home, over 2.5 sets at 2.18 at @betsson

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.

The lean is to Fonseca given how inconsistent Shelton has been this year, but Shelton is a top-10 player who is very hard to beat when he is on top of his game. Shelton has done well to make the Round of 16 and might be rounding into form, which is why we advise you not to bet on the match. If you insist, though, Fonseca moneyline is where you should go. You could also consider over 2.5 sets, but we are worried that the winner of the first set might run away with this in straights.

That being said, betting on Fonseca moneyline is the best bet you can make.

Value bet/ the best odds: Fonseca moneyline at 2.10 @betfair

Botic Van de Zandschulp – Jakub Mensik: 19:30 EST

H2H: 0-0

Botic Van de Zandschulp is yet another tour player who entered ATP Montreal outside the top 60 and has reached the last 16. He beat Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz in his past two matches, so he is clearly on a roll. Those two opponents are very talented. Jakub Mensik had a quality clay season and is now doing well on hardcourts. He beat Terence Atmane in his most recent match.

Best Bet to Make

Parlay/hedge options: Mensik moneyline at 1.37 at @1xbet, Mensik -2.5 games at 1.57 at @1xbet

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you should not bet on this match.

Mensik could easily win in straights, so we don’t think you should bet on this match, but it seems Mensik is overpriced here and that Van de Zandschulp, who has played good tennis the past week to reach this round, offers great value on the set spread. Mensik hasn’t been dominant enough to be trusted with a straight-set bet.

That being said, betting on Van de Zandschulp +1.5 sets is the best bet you can make

Value bet/ the best odds: Van de Zandschulp +1.5 sets at 1.80 @coral

Click here to read article