Week 10 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Raiders at Broncos (-9): The Broncos and Patri*ts have the longest winning streaks in the NFL, at 6 games each. Denver has a point differential on the season of +68; the Raiders have a point differential of -78. Easy survivor pool pick here, as we'll get to momentarily.

Falcons at Colts (-6.5): If the Falcons lose this game, they're heading to the graveyard in our NFC Hierarchy/Obituary. The Colts played their first truly bad game of the season Week 9. It'll be interesting to see if they can bounce back. (Also, this will be Sauce Gardner's first game in Indy after the Colts swung a blockbuster deal for him.)

Browns (-2.5) at Jets: The Jets made two blockbuster trades at the deadline:

They traded CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts for a first-round pick in 2026, a first-round pick in 2027, and WR Adonai Mitchell.

They traded DT Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys (lol) for a first-round pick in 2027, a second-round pick in 2026, and DT Mazi Smith.

Obviously, that's a whole lot of draft capital, but also losing two of their best players will aid in efforts to tank for the No. 1 overall pick.

If the season ended today, the Jets would have the No. 3 overall pick, though they have played one fewer game than the Titans and Saints.

Saints at Panthers (-5.5): It's pretty incredible that the Panthers have a winning record in November with the roster they have. They have a chance to be 6-4! For those of you still alive in survivor pools... got the stones to take them? (I don't.)

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins: The Bills swept the Dolphins in 2023 and 2024, and coming soon, 2025.

Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans: The Texans haven't been that bad this season, despite their 3-5 record. They just haven't been able to win close games. They have a +47 point differential at 3-5, while the Jags have a -8 point differential at 5-3. The Texans have also played a harder schedule so far, in my opinion. I think they're the better team.

But, C.J. Stroud has a concussion and won't play. I'd really love to take the Texans at home with points but I just can't make that one of my spread picks this week.

Ravens (-4) at Vikings: The Ravens feel primed to go on a run with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback, and their defense has been better in recent weeks after a putrid start to the season.

Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5): As noted above, the Patri*ts have a six-game winning streak, tied for the best in the NFL. Credit them for taking care of business, but they have also played the weakest schedule in the NFL, per Inpredictable. That streak ends Week 10 in Tampa against a good Bucs team coming off their bye.

Giants at Bears (-4.5): The Bears are a "bad 5-3 team," but the Giants are a "bad 2-7 team." This line was Bears (-2.5) earlier in the week, and I was ready to jump all over that, but it's not quite as tasty at 4.5.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5): The Seahawks have won eight straight in this rivalry, including a matchup earlier this season. But also, the Seahawks look like they might be a pretty good football team.

Lions (-7.5) at Commanders: The Commanders are dead. Jayden Daniels' season is very likely over, and their defense sucks. Meanwhile, the Lions probably can't wait to light up the Commanders in their building after the Commanders ended their season in the playoffs last year. I don't normally like laying more than 7 points, but I'll make an exception here.

Rams (-4.5) at 49ers: The 49ers are now without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and rookie 11th overall pick Mykel Williams for the season. Meanwhile, the Rams are extremely healthy for a Week 10 game. It doesn't matter to me whether Brock Purdy or Mac Jones starts. The Rams are a much better team either way.

Steelers at Chargers (-3): The Steelers have lost six straight playoff games, while Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs. So I guess that makes this matchup the One And Done Bowl. I don't like this Steelers team even a little bit, but they have a huge matchup advantage with their edge rushers against a Chargers offensive line that is without Rashawn Slater and now also Joe Alt.

Eagles at Packers (-2.5): The Eagles should be rested and spry coming out of the bye, and they probably played their best football of the season in the two games preceding it.

• Passing game starting to come together while keeping opposing defenses guessing... ✔️

• Rushing attack showing signs of life... ✔️

• Interior defensive line beginning to make some noise... ✔️

• Edge rusher reinforcements on the way... ✔️

Meanwhile, the Packers lost an ugly game at home to the Panthers Week 9. They will be without their best weapon in the passing game in TE Tucker Kraft, and likely also without their best wide receiver, Jayden Reed. Those guys do a lot of damage in the intermediate areas of the field as well as after the catch in ways that their other receivers do not.

The Packers have talent, and their defense has been very good so far this season. They are stout against the run, and then obviously Micah Parsons has given their pass rush a big jolt. However, they have only forced five turnovers this season, second-worst in the NFL, and they're playing an Eagles team that has only turned it over three times this season, least in the NFL.

I like the Eagles' chances of winning the turnover battle, and in turn, the game.

Click here to read article