Steelers vs. Browns Predictions: Week 12 Thursday Night Football odds, picks and player props

The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season features the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at Huntington Bank Field. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 12 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

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How To Watch Steelers vs. Browns

When: Thursday, November 21st at 8:20 pm ET

Where: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio

Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)

Steelers vs. Browns Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 19th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Steelers -185, Browns +154

Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-110), Browns +3.5 (-110)

Total: Over 36.5 (-110), Under 36.5 (-110)

Steelers vs. Browns Analysis

The Steelers come into this one on a five-game winning streak, and they are now 8-2 both straight-up and against the spread this year. Meanwhile, the Browns are just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS on the year. These are two football teams that are in very different places right now. Pittsburgh is a surefire AFC playoff team, and the group is looking to win the AFC North. Cleveland is just playing for pride, but a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is very likely. But don’t make the mistake of thinking this will be a cupcake game for the Steelers. Divisional games are always tougher than you think, and that’s especially true in this specific division. It’s also a road divisional game for Pittsburgh, and it’s coming on a short week. Honestly, that’s why I like the idea of taking the points in this spot, while also sprinkling the moneyline.

For as good as the Russell Wilson story has been so far, Pittsburgh is just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.018) in his four weeks under center. It’s not like this offense is suddenly explosive. In fact, the Steelers haven’t done anything very well since Wilson took over. They’re outside of the league’s Top 15 in both Dropback EPA per play (0.059) and Rush EPA per play (-0.099) since he took the starting job. Admittedly, Wilson is much better than Fields in obvious passing situations. He will hit the occasional moon-ball over the top, and he’s much better about finding George Pickens and forcing the ball his way. But overall, nobody is scared of this offense. And the inconsistency of the group was on display last week, as Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown against a Baltimore defense that has been getting lit up all year. That said, Cleveland’s 20th-ranked defense in EPA per play allowed (0.028) should be off the hook here. And that might be an understatement. This Browns secondary has what it takes to stifle Wilson, as Denzel Ward has the ability to take Pickens out of this.

Cleveland is just going to need Jameis Winston and the offense to be decent. And that actually starts with the running game. The Browns have not been able to run the football all year, and they need to set up manageable situations for Winston on third downs. If they don’t, you might see some mistakes from the 30-year-old. But Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski knows this Pittsburgh defense well, so he should be able to put together a good game plan here. And I have said it a few times this year, but the Steelers secondary is burnable. So, I can see Winston playing a very good game.

It’s also just hard to overlook the fact that the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five games in this head-to-head series. The Browns have also won four of their last five home games against the Steelers.

Another angle that’s interesting here is that Mike Tomlin is just 9-10 SU and 8-9-2 ATS on Thursday nights in his career. Meanwhile, Stefanski is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. So, for as good as Tomlin is at leading this Pittsburgh franchise, he hasn’t been great on short weeks. The opposite is true of Stefanski, who also happens to be 13-9 SU when coming off a game in which his team scored 14 or fewer points. A great offensive mind, Stefanski can be trusted to get this figured out after the ugly Saints loss.

Steelers vs. Browns Player Props

Jameis Winston Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-115)

There’s a chance we end up seeing some snow or light rain in this game, but I’d still fire up Winston to go Over 208.5 passing yards. Winston has gone Over this mark in all three of his starts, and he’s averaging 44.3 attempts per game as Cleveland’s starter. The Browns just haven’t been shy about letting it rip, and Winston has connected on a bunch of deep passes. I don’t see that changing here, and a big play or two will help him hit this incredibly low mark.

Steelers vs. Browns Pick

I’m going to be playing the Browns as one of my Week 12 NFL best bets. This Pittsburgh team is definitely better with Wilson under center, but the offense is still shaky and the defense isn’t quite as good as people think — especially in the secondary. So, in a tough divisional road game, I’m not sure the Steelers can be trusted to win by more than a field goal. I’m also not sure they’ll win at all. Home games against AFC North opponents are now the only circled schedule spots for a Cleveland team that doesn’t have much to play for. The Browns might not be able to get themselves back in the playoff mix, but they will take pride in derailing rivals.

Our betting splits pages also happen to show that this will end up being a Pros vs. Joes situation. Public bettors are all over Pittsburgh at both DraftKings and Circa. Well, the line has moved from Steelers -4.5 to Steelers -3.5. The sharp money is Cleveland.

Bet: Browns +3.5 (-105) & Browns ML (+166 – just a sprinkle)

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