Joe Root is climbing the Test summit faster than you think: Why early 2028 could be when he beats Sachin Tendulkar

The Hail Mary move in the wake of the London nightclub scandal involving Ben Stokes has not gone according to plan for England. With Stokes sidelined amid an ongoing ECB investigation, Joe Root's return to the captaincy has coincided with a difficult phase for the team.

New Zealand bounced back impressively in the second Test at The Oval, forcing England into a do-or-die final match of the series. For Root, the situation feels eerily familiar. The leadership pressures that contributed to his decision to step down as captain in 2022 have resurfaced, at least temporarily.

Yet while England's fortunes remain uncertain, the conversation around Root himself has taken a very different direction.

Scores of 46 and 77 in the second Test saw the 35-year-old become only the second batter in Test history after Sachin Tendulkar to cross the 14,000-run mark. And once again, the inevitable question emerged: when can Root surpass Tendulkar's seemingly untouchable tally of 15,921 Test runs?

How Root changed the conversation from 'if' to 'when'

When Tendulkar retired in 2013 with 15,921 runs from 200 Tests, the record appeared virtually unbreakable.

Alastair Cook was initially viewed as the most likely challenger, but he retired more than 3,000 runs short. Virat Kohli and Steve Smith were later tipped to threaten the mark, yet Kohli retired from Tests with 9,230 runs, while Smith, now 37, has only recently crossed 10,000.

For much of his career, Root wasn't even considered part of that discussion.

Between 2012 and 2019, he scored 7,359 runs in 84 Tests at an average of 49.1, registering 14 centuries. Outstanding numbers, but not the profile of someone expected to chase down the greatest batting record in Test cricket.

Everything changed after 2020.

Following averages of 37.00 and 42.18 in 2019 and 2020 respectively, Root exploded in 2021, scoring 1,708 runs at 61.00 — the most prolific year of his career. More importantly, he sustained that level, averaging above 55 across the next four years.

His conversion rate improved dramatically as well. In the latter phase of his career, he has scored 24 centuries in 68 Tests, compared to 14 hundreds in his first 84 matches.

The result has been a remarkable increase not just in average, but in runs per match. Gradually, the debate stopped being about whether Root could challenge Tendulkar's record and became focused on when he might get there.

When could Root overtake Tendulkar?

Root's latest innings at The Oval took his career tally to 14,075 runs, leaving him 1,846 runs shy of Tendulkar's record.

For context, Root required just 42 innings to score his previous 1,900 Test runs. That's roughly 25 Tests at a rate of 76 runs per match.

England's upcoming schedule, however, is slightly lighter than previous cycles.

After the final Test against New Zealand, England will host Pakistan for a three-Test series starting in August. That will be followed by a three-Test tour of South Africa later this year.

In 2027, England are scheduled to play: Two Tests in Bangladesh, the one-off 150th Ashes anniversary Test in Australia in early March, a home Test against Bangladesh in late May, followed by a five-Test Ashes series against Australia

That amounts to 16 confirmed Tests, potentially 17 if England qualify for the World Test Championship final.

Based purely on current projections, Root may require more than the remainder of this WTC cycle to overhaul Tendulkar.

The next likely opportunity could come during England's expected tour of India in early 2028, by which point Root will be 38 years old.

There's a certain poetry to that possibility. Breaking Tendulkar's record in India, perhaps even at the Wankhede Stadium where the Indian great played his final Test, would be a fitting chapter in cricket history.

Of course, Root would probably prefer the milestone to arrive on home soil. And that remains a realistic possibility too.

Since getting within 4,000 runs of Tendulkar's record, Root has scored at a rate exceeding 90 runs per Test. He also enjoys strong records against most of England's upcoming opponents. He averages: 55 against Pakistan at home, 50 in South Africa, 49 in subcontinental conditions, and 51.5 against Australia during the 2023 Ashes, when he scored 412 runs. An Ashes-record-breaking moment therefore cannot be dismissed.

Yet history also provides a note of caution. Very few batters have maintained elite productivity deep into their late 30s. Root has shown remarkable durability and consistency, but age remains the one opponent no batter can entirely control.

Still, 1,846 runs is no longer an impossible mountain. Not long ago, surpassing Tendulkar felt like a fantasy. Today, with every passing innings, Root is making it feel increasingly inevitable. And that may be the biggest achievement of all.

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