Ireland and England stars diminished by Lions effect but Ben Earl thriving

Languishing Lions

In the Six Nations era, since 2000, four of the six post-Lions-year championships have been won by France — who do not have the issue of tired Lions players to contend with.

Is it any surprise, therefore, that France look hottest in 2026? Ireland have broken the cycle of post-Lions failure twice, but in both 2014 and 2018 they were the nation that provided the third-most players to the Lions. In Australia in 2013 they had ten tourists, where Wales dominated with 15, and in 2017 had 11, with England way clear on 16.

So you could say it is statistically inevitable that Ireland look weaker in 2026, having delivered 18 players to the 2025 tour, which was run by their head coach, Farrell, and most of his assistants.

Farrell, his staff and players want to dismiss this negative thinking, but the numbers clearly show how his best players have dropped off after the Lions tour.

Some frontline tourists have fallen out of his squad altogether — through suspension in the case of the centre Bundee Aki, and through injury for the likes of Andrew Porter, Hugo Keenan and Mack Hansen. Many Lions tend to suffer injuries in the season after a tour — England have lost Will Stuart, Wales Jac Morgan. More will surely follow as the relentlessness of rugby’s schedule catches up with top players.

But lingering on the Irish, it is notable how the form of their best players has dipped. Dan Sheehan, the hooker, Tadhg Beirne, the back-five forward, and Jack Conan, the No8, are all superb operators who have statistically regressed since the tour.

Comparing their average Test-match numbers for the period between November 2024 and the end of the Lions series against the Wallabies with what they have produced since, there is a stark contrast.

Sheehan is only better in three metrics — having slightly nudged up his dominant carrying, tackling and his turnover rate — but is down everywhere else.

Beirne — the Lions man of the series, and a phenomenal forward when he is flying — has similar issues and is less dominant all over the park. Now 34, perhaps this was always going to happen. Beirne has played the most of any 2025 Irish Test Lion in this World Cup cycle, slogging through 69 games in 2½ seasons.

It is the same story for Conan, the Lions’ starting No8. He carries for nine metres fewer per game, from a similar number of touches, is 17 per cent less dominant as a carrier, and breaks the gainline 12 per cent less too, post-tour.

This decline has not affected everyone, and some players have adapted their games. Jamison Gibson-Park, for example, beats fewer defenders (0.48 per Test since the Lions, 0.60 up to it) but is registering more try assists (0.96 per Test this season, against 0.8 before), and is breaking the line more himself.

James Ryan, the lock, is carrying more (nearly nine times per Test, against six last season), but less efficiently (making eight metres on average, not 11). He has raised his tackling success rate from 91 per cent to 93 per cent, and is attempting more offloads.

Joe McCarthy is a far more dominant carrier (making ground over the gainline with 63 per cent of his carries now, compared with 45 per cent last season) but his defence is worse, with no dominant tackles, turnovers or lineout steals at all in this Test season.

Any former Lion will tell you the trip takes so much out of you. Keith Wood, a tourist in 1997 and 2001, told The Guardian this week: “In the year after a Lions series, every player that went on that tour is wrecked,” adding that he feels Ireland look “flat and jaded”.

Could Farrell have planned better for this? Through the Irish Rugby Football Union’s centrally contracted system, he did rest many of his top men for the start of the United Rugby Championship season, with several Leinster internationals returning only for the 26-13 defeat by the All Blacks in Chicago last November, and yet they are still feeling the effects. Perhaps he did not have the depth of talent to move his older men on sooner.

Player management in Ireland has been far more carefully crafted than in England, thanks to their centralised system, but this year it looks as if Ireland have finally fallen victims of their own dominance. How can England learn from this with their own Lions?

Wilting and blooming Roses

Freeman said it was the mental fatigue that lingered longest. He feels much better now, having been carefully managed by Northampton Saints and England, but slightly regrets having a big holiday to Universal Studios in Florida so soon after the tour.

“I struggled without realising it, I think,” he said. “I had the five weeks off, my body felt good, but my mental state wasn’t in the best spot. Saints did really well at noticing that and giving me the time.

“You go on a big Lions tour off the back of 34 games [in the season] or so. It’s a lot of rugby, and then I could probably have managed my off time better and not gone on as many rollercoaster rides and things like that, probably just sat in the sun. Without realising it, I think I was tired.”

Is this what we are seeing with Itoje, who was clearly fatigued at Murrayfield, and has had to bear the emotional toll of his mother’s death in December?

Phil Morrow, England’s head of performance, spoke before the tournament about Itoje, now 31, entering his “legacy phase” where the volume of work he does during the week has to be tailored, but strength and acceleration drills are essential to keep him finely tuned.

England and Saracens must not flog him too much, or he could start to dip like Beirne, who plays so regularly for Munster and Ireland.

Despite his poor performance against Scotland, Itoje is still generally improving, particularly when it comes to carrying and defence.

Itoje has consistently had heavy seasons across his decade of Test rugby, with his 100th cap due to come against Ireland this Saturday. He has regularly broken the suggested 30-match season limit. That game time must taper if he is to kick on again. Steve Borthwick has benched Itoje twice, against Fiji and Wales, and substituted him after 56 minutes against Scotland, so there is some management of his minutes.

Perhaps he can be driven on by younger men such as Ben Earl, 28, who has played remarkably well at No8 since returning from the Lions, where he was on the bench in the first and third Tests, and returned to be man of the match in November against Australia and Fiji.

In this Six Nations he has carried 36 times for 156 metres in two games — top among forwards in the competition — 53 metres of which have been through contact. In defence he has also made 27 tackles. He scored England’s consolation try in the 31-20 defeat at Murrayfield, having crossed against Wales too, and was totally spent by the end. Earl is demonstrating that the Lions tour can also be one that gives players the confidence to grow.

On Saturday, therefore, it will be telling how the two teams who made up the majority of the 2025 Lions squad fare against each other; and whether Ireland’s post-tour slide accelerates, or slows.

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