All Blacks vs Springboks: Where the defining third test will be won and lost - Liam Napier

The All Blacks overcame conceding first in the opening Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry test and trailed by one point at halftime. Their 21-3 advantage in the second half then proved pivotal in surging over the Boks at Ellis Park.

Last week, though, the All Blacks conceded first and were 10 points adrift at the break. It’s no surprise the Boks have kicked on to win all eight tests when they’ve led by 10 or more at halftime. That buffer proved too much for the All Blacks to overturn in Cape Town, despite two late tries.

Many factors go into success against the Boks, but the blueprint is clear – hold them off early and surge late.

Accuracy and discipline will be integral to countering the Boks’ rampage from the opening kickoff.

Impose fatigue

Starting well is imperative because altitude suits the All Blacks more than the big Boks.

The All Blacks have savoured some of their most famous triumphs at altitude. From their backs-to-the-wall 2022 victory that saved Ian Foster’s coaching career to the 2013 Rugby Championship decider with the last-minute Israel Dagg try – after Ma’a Nonu’s break with one boot – that broke Boks captain John Smit’s heart in his 100th test in Soweto. The evidence is clear: the All Blacks love the high-veldt thin air.

It makes sense. Pace and ball movement are inherent in the best All Blacks teams.

The Boks traditionally favour their set piece, power and kicking strengths.

Fatigue tends to zap the Boks more than the All Blacks at the back end of tests. That’s why the All Blacks have won eight of their past 10 tests at altitude.

Rennie’s team selection signals the All Blacks will attempt to run the Boks off their feet in Soweto. And by thrusting Asafo Aumua, Peter Lakai and Sam Darry into the starting line-up, Rennie is boldly backing youth against experience.

“We’ll back our conditioning and the mindset to keep working at altitude,” Rennie said. “We certainly don’t see it as a negative playing up here.”

In their two previous appearances at FNB Stadium, the 94,000-seater rebuilt for the 2010 football World Cup, the All Blacks have emerged victorious from battles with the Boks in 2010 and 2012.

Aerial assault

Leroy Carter offered a simple solution to the All Blacks’ ongoing high-ball challenges.

“Just catch it,” Carter said.

One of the All Blacks’ best in Cape Town, Carter did a decent job of following through, too.

The All Blacks’ backfield and their inability to defuse the Boks’ sustained aerial assault are the biggest vulnerabilities hovering over the third test.

Snaffle more and the All Blacks can launch their vastly improved counter-attack. Bobble more and the Boks gain easy field position to impose their power and pressure tactics.

The Boks are averaging 26.5 kicks per game - and last week they regathered 40% of those. That’s far too high.

“We’ve done a lot of work on it,” Rennie said. “What we showed at the weekend is when we got it right we can be pretty lethal. The key thing is us winning a lot more of that ball in the air. They’re very good in that area and because of that we know they’re going to put a lot more up.

“It’s been a focus for the whole time I’ve been involved. We’ve got to be better but there was some really good stuff done in the weekend that we can profit off. The intention is to gather a helluva lot more of those percentage wise.”

Form the foundations

For all the bickering around scrum techniques and tactics, the lineout is the battleground where the Boks suffocated the All Blacks last week. It wasn’t solely the ball the Boks stole but the disruption they caused.

This year the All Blacks lineout has operated at 82.9 % while South Africa’s returns 93.1%. In a game of seizing chances, those stats matter.

In Cape Town, the Boks often stationed two pods at the back of the lineout, which forced the All Blacks to either gamble by throwing long or go to the front.

Any rugby attack coach will tell you the back of the lineout is preferable to launch strike moves. Getting clean ball at the back effectively removes the forwards and creates ample time and space to launch an assault.

In one of their few clean lineout wins, back ball created the All Blacks’ second try in Cape Town with Ardie Savea charging on to a Simon Parker pop pass. Savea beat defenders to provide the incision for Damian McKenzie to score.

Gaining parity against the vaunted Boks scrum is a must but, from an attacking perspective, fixing the lineout is more important.

This week, the All Blacks have new combinations, with Aumua seeking to find Darry, who is also promoted to sort out the messy restarts.

“We’ve made a couple of shifts from a lineout point of view that we think will make the task a lot easier for him [Aumua],” Rennie said. “The lineout has a lot more than the hooker. We expect to be better there this week.”

Spotlight on whistler

Pressure on the officials has been a constant in this series, but neither England’s Matthew Carley nor Australia’s Angus Gardner were decisive factors in determining the outcomes of the first two tests.

Georgia’s Nika Amashukeli assumes charge of the third. He’s a tough taskmaster who can, at times, be hard to fathom, which makes his matches something of a lottery.

The All Blacks will hope Amashukeli delivers quick, clean ruck ball by ensuring the Boks can’t lay and linger to slow their breakdown ball.

The Boks will hope they can manipulate more scrum dominance than in the second test.

Roll the dice on which way Amashukeli will lean.

Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.

Click here to read article