Are favourites France getting stronger still? Re-ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day 16

That’s a wrap on day 16.

World Cup favourites France and the brilliant Ousmane Dembele didn’t take it easy on Norway, claiming their third victory of the group phase and setting up a round-of-32 meeting with Sweden on Tuesday. Will Norway’s rested starters from that match, including Erling Haaland, be raring to go against Ivory Coast a few hours earlier?

Cape Verde made history as the smallest nation to ever reach the World Cup knockout stages, where Lionel Messi and Argentina await. They couldn’t… could they?

And there was a thrilling finale to Group G on Friday — including an unusual decisive offside call late in Iran’s 1-1 draw with Egypt — where Belgium thrashed New Zealand 5-1 to finish top.

So, how does all this shake up our rankings?

1. France

FIFA ranking: 3

➡️ (arrow depicts movement from our previous ranking)

France outclassed Norway’s B-team to join Mexico as one of just two sides to have won all three group games. Last year’s Ballon d’Or winner Dembele took advantage of Norwegian rotation on Friday, scoring a hat-trick in the absence of manager Didier Deschamps, who was back in France following the death of his mother but is expected to return to North America for the knockouts.

With Michael Olise playing in the No 10 role, on three assists and counting, along with Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Desire Doue, their attack has looked unstoppable.

As you can see, the French remain top of our rankings — and The Athletic‘s live projection tool forecasts a 21 per cent chance of them winning this World Cup.

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2. Argentina

FIFA ranking: 1

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Lionel Messi is regarded by many as the greatest player of all time, but did we see this coming? Complete domination by the 39-year-old, who has now scored all five of Argentina’s goals in their two wins and became the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer after his double against Austria.

The defence will be pleased too after consecutive clean sheets, though Cristian Romero’s substitution against Austria due to a knee injury is a concern.

It might be beneficial for some of their other forward players to show some form, as Messi can’t win the World Cup single-handedly. Or can he?

3. Spain

FIFA ranking: 2

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After starting their tournament with a draw against Cape Verde, Spain collected back-to-back wins once Lamine Yamal returned to the starting XI against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to top the group.

The 4-0 defeat of the Saudis in match two was their most convincing, while against Uruguay on Friday, the European champions showed how they might frustrate sides in the knockout rounds, with them being so comfortable in possession after taking a lead.

They will play Austria or Algeria in the next round.

4. Brazil

FIFA ranking: 6

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After their opening draw with Morocco, Brazil have gone from strength to strength, with two 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland.

They have been comfortable letting the opposition have the ball and pouncing at the right moments, and have played with more of an edge since Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha came in up front against Haiti.

Vinicius Jr is their star of the tournament, with four goals already, while Neymar made a substitute appearance against Scotland.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side topped Group C — but their round-of-32 opponents, Japan, won’t be pushovers.

5. Netherlands

FIFA ranking: 8

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Ten goals in three games, with convincing wins over Sweden and Tunisia and a draw against Japan — the Netherlands made their group stage look pretty comfortable, with Brian Brobbey scoring three and Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville adding two each.

But they now face a challenging round-of-32 opponent — Morocco on Monday in the Mexican city of Monterrey. We will soon find out whether they, and Ronald Koeman’s coaching, stack up.

6. England

FIFA ranking: 4

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A dull, underwhelming performance and result against lower-ranked opponents? England, you’re back! After the excitement, goals and thrilling attacking football of their 4-2 victory over Croatia, the goalless draw against Ghana has stopped everyone shouting: “It’s coming home.” Well, for a few days at least. Beating Panama in their final match today (Saturday) will get England back on track as group winners.

7. Germany

FIFA ranking: 10

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Germany lost against Ecuador, but in fairness, they had already secured their spot as Group E winners, while the South Americans needed a win to progress. The worry is that they started with a near-enough strongest XI, before rotating with substitutes and buckling under the intensity.

They take a drop in our rankings as the contenders above them are yet to lose a game, but Julian Nagelsmann’s team still made light work of Curacao and beat a capable Ivory Coast.

Paraguay are now their confirmed opponents in the round of 32 — a match Germany should expect to win.

8. Morocco

FIFA ranking: 7

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So far, so good for Mohamed Ouahbi, who was only hired as Morocco’s manager in March, having led the nation to victory at the Under-20 World Cup last year.

In Group C, they went toe-to-toe with Brazil before beating Scotland and Haiti rather convincingly. Using Ismael Saibari to lead the line has proved an inspired choice — he has scored once in every group game.

Their round-of-32 draw hasn’t been kind, though. They will be in Monterrey, facing another top 10 team in our rankings, the Netherlands.

9. Mexico

FIFA ranking: 13

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The first team to collect three wins from three in the group stage. Mexico scored six goals and kept three clean sheets, beating the Czech Republic 3-0 with a rotated side on Wednesday.

Several players caught the eye, including 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora and forward Julian Quinones, who has scored two goals.

Winning Group A means they will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and, if they make it through, the round of 16, too), with The Athletic’s live prediction tool forecasting a greater than 99 per cent chance of facing Ecuador next.

10. Norway

FIFA ranking: 31

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Norway qualified for the knockout phase with a game to spare after having no trouble scoring against Senegal and Iraq. Their fearsome Manchester City striker Haaland got four goals in those matches, his first appearances at the World Cup, before being rested against France in Friday’s finale.

They were perhaps caught off guard that the French, also already through after back-to-back wins, fielded the majority of their stars. Norway’s reserves didn’t stand much of a chance, losing 4-1. It highlights a concern about the squad’s lack of strength in depth, though their starters should benefit from the day off.

Norway next face Ivory Coast on Tuesday in an intriguing round of 32 tie.

11. United States

FIFA ranking: 17

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The U.S. have been responsible for bringing great excitement to the tournament as one of the three co-hosts. Their positive and adventurous football has not been short of goals. But after rotating against Turkey, they lost some momentum, suffering a late 3-2 loss.

Still, with an elite coach, Mauricio Pochettino, in the dugout, their fans are full of confidence entering the knockouts, asking, ‘Why not U.S.?’

Facing Bosnia and Herzegovina in the next round, they will fancy their chances of reaching the last 16.

12. Colombia

FIFA ranking: 14

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A team of attacking talent and with willing runners aplenty, they have a 100 per cent record with two wins from two. Neither victory was wholly convincing, with a wobble against Uzbekistan and then an unnecessarily tight 1-0 victory over DR Congo, but Colombia have achieved their first aim of the tournament by progressing to the knockout stages.

To do it with a game to spare takes the pressure off their lip-licking game with Portugal this weekend, but they’ll still want to top the group, which they can do with a draw.

13. Portugal

FIFA ranking: 5

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Portugal put right the wrongs of their underwhelming opener against DR Congo with a much-needed 5-0 shellacking of Uzbekistan to get their tournament up and running.

The fact Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice wasn’t just an historic moment (he became the first man to score in six different World Cups) but important to quell the incessant noise about his place in the side, at least for a few days.

However, given how overawed and inexperienced the Uzbek defence was, any excitement at Portugal’s overall prospects should be tempered. Their clash with Colombia next up will tell us more.

14. Switzerland

FIFA ranking: 19

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After starting with a draw against Qatar, Switzerland progressed to the knockout stages as Group B winners following victories over Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina. An encouraging sign has been the performances of 20-year-old Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi, who has breathed new life into the team with three goals.

After going undefeated in the group, they look likely to have a fairly kind landing in the next phase, with Iran (a 92 per cent chance) their most likely opponents in the round of 32.

15. Croatia

FIFA ranking: 11

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Survived a couple of real scares against Panama to edge a narrow 1-0 victory thanks to substitute Ante Budimir’s close-range finish.

How far can Croatia’s golden-olden generation take them in this tournament? The signs in their opening two matches haven’t been great, but one thing we have learned from the finalists in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022 is to never write them off.

16. Japan

FIFA ranking: 18

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A likeable team who have impressed in the groups playing an egoless, exciting brand of football, their style was exemplified in their final game, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, in which they took off their captain after 39 minutes and scored a well-crafted team goal.

Japan’s most impressive performance was the 4-0 win over Tunisia in their second group game. They will play Brazil in Houston in the round of 32, and not everyone would rule them out.

17. Belgium

FIFA ranking: 9

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After unconvincing performances against Egypt and Iran, Belgium showed their quality to overwhelm New Zealand as their big-name forwards Leandro Trossard, Kevin de Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku all got on the scoresheet in a 5-1 win.

Their performances in the group stage suggest they are not as good as that FIFA ranking implies, but in the end they topped Group G, setting up a round-of-32 match against South Korea (44 per cent probablity), Senegal (33 per cent), Algeria (13 per cent) or Austria (1o per cent).

18. Ghana

FIFA ranking: 73

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It couldn’t have gone much better. Victory over Panama was brilliantly backed up with a 0-0 draw against England in a resolute, organised performance.

They could even have won via sporadic, pacy threats on the counter and, if VAR hadn’t gone for a coffee, they might have had a penalty for Ezri Konsa’s foul on Prince Kwabena Adu.

Four points from two games has already secured their progress to the knockout stages.

19. Canada

FIFA ranking: 30

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Canada can be happy with their work in the group stages. They emphatically earned their first men’s World Cup win with a 6-0 victory over Qatar as key player Jonathan David found form, scoring a hat-trick.

Ismael Kone breaking his leg against Qatar was a dark cloud, but Canada still progressed in second place. They had the chance to finish top and remain on home turf for the round of 32, but lost to Switzerland.

Their opponents for the next round at SoFi Stadium? South Africa. It could be a lot worse.

20. Egypt

FIFA ranking: 29

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Egypt started the day top of Group G and took an early lead against Iran, but by the end they were on the ropes and lucky not to lose the match. The 1-1 result dropped them to second on goal difference, after a win against New Zealand and another draw with Belgium, so they finished unbeaten.

It is not disastrous for their round-of-32 outlook — Egypt will face Australia in their first ever World Cup knockout-phase match — but it does mean they could meet champions Argentina in the last 16.

21. Ivory Coast

FIFA ranking: 33

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With a 2-0 win over Curacao, Ivory Coast reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time. The level of their performances in the group phase shows promise to go further, with wingers Yan Diomande and Amad capable of troubling any defence.

Their round-of-32 match-up will test that. They will face the runners-up of Group I, Norway.

22. South Korea

FIFA ranking: 22

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South Korea suffered defeat against South Africa in their final group game, but they should still progress to the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams.

They made a promising start with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but didn’t score again in their second, a loss to Mexico, or third match.

The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 44 per cent chance of making the round of 32, with Belgium their most likely opponents if they do make it through.

23. Sweden

FIFA ranking: 38

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After thrashing Tunisia and being thrashed by the Netherlands, Thursday’s 1-1 draw against Japan evens them out as a solid-looking team. Sweden have wrapped up their spot in the knockouts as one of the eight best third-placed teams — despite Anthony Elanga’s apparent confusion.

Elanga’s curling strike in that Japan draw showed they have individuals capable of game-changing moments, along with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. But they will need a big performance to get past tournament favourites France in the next round.

24. Ecuador

FIFA ranking: 24

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Ecuador’s victory over Germany took them through to the World Cup knockouts for the first time in 20 years. Had they not suffered a late defeat by the Ivory Coast, or been denied by Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room’s masterclass, they might have finished higher than third in Group E.

They have continued the defensive strength they showed in qualifying, which bodes well for the round of 32, where they have a greater than 99 per cent chance of facing co-hosts Mexico at Estadio Azteca.

25. Senegal

FIFA ranking: 15

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The (asterisked) African champions had a tough time in Group I, but are now confirmed to progress as one of the best third-place teams after thrashing Iraq 5-0 in their last group match.

Senegal were competitive against France and Norway, but were prone to defensive errors and got played through too easily. They look more formidable going forward, but will hope goalkeeper Edouard Mendy recovers from the knee injury he suffered against Norway.

For the round of 32, their most likely opponents, as things stand, are England (43 per cent).

26. Australia

FIFA ranking: 27

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Progression as Group D runners-up marks a solid effort from Australia, and two clean sheets from three games helped them do it.

Despite disappointing against the United States, their highlight was the performance against Turkey, producing a 2-0 win with only 28 per cent possession in a breakout game for 20-year-old Watford forward Nestory Irankunda.

They will have to channel this solidarity and cutting-edge in the knockout stages, where they will face the runners-up of Group G.

27. Algeria

FIFA ranking: 28

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Algeria showed they are a threat from set pieces, scoring both goals from corners in a turnaround win against Jordan. This could help them hurt superior opposition from limited chances. Riyad Mahrez came back into the starting line-up and was a creative spark in open play.

Their game against Austria on Sunday will now determine who goes through in second place from Group J, but three points puts them in with a chance of a third-place progression. They have a minus-two goal difference, though, so have work to do.

28. Austria

FIFA ranking: 25

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Ralf Rangnick tinkered with the starting line-up against Argentina, bringing Tottenham’s Kevin Danso into the back line and PSV’s Paul Wanner into midfield.

The problem is that this team, despite having quality, doesn’t have prolific forwards or a formidable defence (conceding to Jordan). It is unclear where their real strength to hurt better teams lies.

After Algeria’s win over Jordan, a meeting with them on Saturday will determine who progresses in second place in the group.

29. Cape Verde

FIFA ranking: 67

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Cape Verde reaching the knockouts on their World Cup debut is the biggest fairy tale of the tournament.

After keeping out European champions Spain, earning goalkeeper Vozinha Instagram fame, and drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, they confirmed progression with a third point, against Saudi Arabia, to finish second in Group H.

The reward is a round-of-32 tie against holders Argentina. They couldn’t do it again, could they? Whatever happens in the knockout stages, these players have made history and inspired a generation.

30. Iran

FIFA ranking: 20

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Entering the tournament, all eyes were on the team whose country has been in military conflict with one of the co-host nations, the United States. An unprecedented set of circumstances.

Despite disrupted preparations and having to fly in and out of the U.S. just hours before and after their matches, a decision that was eventually scrapped, Iran came within inches of beating Egypt to finish second in the group, scoring an added-time ‘winner’ that was actually marginally offside, and later hitting the woodwork.

In the end, their third draw out of three took them to three points and kept their goal difference at zero. This means they have a 92 per cent chance of reaching the knockout phase, where they would play Switzerland.

31. Paraguay

FIFA ranking: 40

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Paraguay are almost certain to qualify as one of the best third-place teams after earning their fourth point in a 0-0 draw with Australia.

They started their tournament disappointingly against the co-hosts, thrashed 4-1 by the USA, but held onto a win against Turkey after Matias Galarza’s long-range strike two minutes in, despite Miguel Almiron being dismissed at the end of the first half for covering his mouth while speaking to an opponent, the first ever red card for this offence.

Overall, they have not looked like a team that will threaten too much in the knockout stages, other than frustrate opponents and be defensively solid, particularly as they are facing Germany.

32. Bosnia and Herzegovina

FIFA ranking: 64

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Unlike the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t waste their chance after progressing through the European qualification play-offs, knocking out Italy in the final. A 3-1 win against Qatar earned their place in the World Cup’s round of 32, adding to the point earned against Canada in their opening draw.

Having finished third in Group B, they are set to face another host, the United States, in San Francisco next.

33. South Africa

FIFA ranking: 61

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After South Africa’s poor defeat in their opener against Mexico, few would have predicted the turnaround that has followed — and the big jump in our rankings.

Manager Hugo Broos has tinkered with his line-up throughout the group stage, including dropping Burnley’s Lyle Foster after the 2-0 Mexico loss, and the side looked more threatening on the break against South Korea on Wednesday in a dramatic 1-0 victory.

As Group A runners-up, they progressed to the knockouts for the first time and their round-of-32 opponent is another host nation — they will face Canada in Los Angeles.

34. DR Congo

⬆️ 4

FIFA ranking: 46

Again gave a good account of themselves against star-studded opposition, following up their shock 1-1 draw against Portugal with a narrow 1-0 defeat by Colombia. Defensively, they look pretty handy and always carry a threat on the break through Yoane Wissa.

Victory against Uzbekistan this weekend surely puts them through to the knockout stage with four points.

35. Scotland

FIFA ranking: 41

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Scotland’s job in their final group game was to avoid a heavy defeat, so they left the game disappointed after a 3-0 loss. They were allowed possession by Brazil but made decisive errors at the back, and were punished.

Despite beating Haiti in their opening game, they only scored one goal in the group stages and have looked relatively flat, while Scott McTominay has not got going.

Their hopes of progression lie in other nations’ hands and are becoming increasingly slimmer. The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them less than one per cent chance of reaching the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.

36. Uzbekistan

FIFA ranking: 50

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After a good showing against Colombia, Uzbekistan wilted against Portugal and Ronaldo, defending with naivety in a humbling 5-0 defeat that had star player Abdukodir Khusanov in tears at full time.

Uzbekistan were not expected to earn a point from their two opening matches, but with their confidence and goal difference both having taken a hammering, they now need to beat DR Congo and get lucky with results elsewhere to progress as a third-placed team.

It looks like a tall order.

The eliminated teams

37. New Zealand

FIFA ranking: 85

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We will remember New Zealand at this World Cup for breakout star Elijah Just, who scored three of their four goals, and for those Chris Wood touches in the first game against Iran.

After that match, they were overwhelmed by the quality of both Egypt and Belgium, losing comprehensively to both. But they played a part in their first World Cup finals since 2010, including their own viral sensation in Tim Payne.

Their future goal will remain the same: reaching the knockout stages for the first time.

38. Turkey

FIFA ranking: 23

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Possibly the most underwhelming team compared to their pre-tournament expectations at this year’s World Cup. Most would have predicted Turkey to progress ahead of Australia and Paraguay. Instead, they were eliminated with a game to spare.

They saved face in their final match, scoring their first goals and earning a 3-2 win against the United States, but it was too late to matter.

39. Uruguay

FIFA ranking: 16

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Uruguay left themselves needing a result in the final group game against Spain, after only taking two points from the meetings with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. They never really looked like winning against the European champions. They clearly have quality, having finished level on points with Brazil and Colombia in qualifying, but didn’t show it at this World Cup.

With a goalkeeping howler and a red card, Marcelo Bielsa’s side imploded at the end of a bitterly disappointing tournament for them.

40. Saudi Arabia

FIFA ranking: 60

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A regression from their World Cup appearances in 2018 and 2022, when they were able to win a group game on each occasion. They have still only reached the knockout stage once, in 1994. But Saudi Arabia were hard to beat, earning two draws, and you would expect them to benefit from the development of their domestic league in future tournaments — including the World Cup they will host in 2034.

41. Curacao

FIFA ranking: 82

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The smallest nation to compete at a World Cup came away with a point, earned against Ecuador thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Eloy Room, and their first goal at the tournament scored by Livano Comenencia, but were eliminated following defeat by the Ivory Coast.

After losing 7-1 to Germany in their first game, they recovered to give a good account of themselves overall.

42. Czech Republic

FIFA ranking: 43

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The Czech Republic go home disappointed, having left themselves needing a win against Mexico in their final group game and losing 3-0.

Considering the fight they showed to beat the Republic of Ireland and Denmark in the European qualification play-offs to get here, they underwhelmed at this World Cup, earning just one point against South Africa and finishing bottom of Group A.

43. Panama

FIFA ranking: 34

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Knocked out of the tournament with a game to spare having narrowly lost against Ghana (via a last-minute goal) and Croatia, both games finishing 1-0.

There will be pride in how they performed, but also real regrets over missed chances and spurned opportunities.

44. Jordan

FIFA ranking: 63

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Jordan have bowed out at their debut tournament after losses to Austria and Algeria. They scored in both games, but didn’t do enough to stifle their opponents, something we have seen from other debut nations, mainly from standout goalkeeping performances.

45. Haiti

FIFA ranking: 83

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They played with freedom against Morocco, knowing they were already eliminated, and even though they were beaten 4-2, Sunderland’s Wilson Isidor scored a memorable goal.

After appearing in their first World Cup since 1974, they will hope to be luckier in their draw next time — and avoid two top-10-ranked nations in Morocco and Brazil.

46. Qatar

FIFA ranking: 56

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Qatar were eliminated after a 3-1 loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Having earned a point against Switzerland in their opening match, manager Julen Lopetegui couldn’t prevent them from one of the worst performances of the group stage with a 6-0 loss and two red cards against Canada in their second outing. They failed to build on that opening point.

47. Iraq

FIFA ranking: 57

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Iraq didn’t get near any of their group opponents, who in fairness boasted two of the best forwards in the world in Haaland and Mbappe.

Their highlight was captain Aymen Hussein’s goal against Norway, in the aftermath of his being held for several hours for questioning by U.S. immigration officials upon entering the country.

If they had beaten Senegal, they would still have had a chance at qualification, but instead they conceded after four minutes and were reduced to 10 players shortly after. They ended a first World Cup finals campaign since 1986 with a 5-0 defeat.

48. Tunisia

FIFA ranking: 45

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It has been a miserable tournament for Tunisia. After a 5-1 opening loss to Sweden, they sacked Sabri Lamouchi, but his replacement, Herve Renard, could not prevent further heavy defeats by Japan and the Netherlands.

Finishing on a minus-10 goal difference, no team has a worse losing margin.

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