Mats Wilander gives two reasons why he thinks Novak Djokovic could beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarter-final

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are set for another reunion on the court, this time in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open.

Both former world number ones, 37-year-old Djokovic leads 21-year-old Alcaraz 4-3 in their ATP Tour head-to-head record.

Alcaraz has labelled Djokovic ‘unbelievable’ ahead of their Australian Open clash, with the pair having last met in the 2024 Paris Olympic final.

The Serbian legend won that battle last summer to complete the Golden Slam, although that came after he lost the 2024 Wimbledon final to the Spaniard for the second year running.

Intriguingly, all seven of their ATP meetings thus far have come in semi-finals or later, a trend that is now ending in Melbourne this week.

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Mats Wilander says hard-court favours Novak Djokovic against Carlos Alcaraz

Just two of their meetings have taken place on hard courts, with the more experienced Djokovic winning on both occasions.

And that is just one such reason why former world number one Mats Wilander thinks he could emerge victorious at Rod Laver Arena.

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“Novak Djokovic has a reason to win because he doesn’t lose on this court very often,” Wilander said on Eurosport. “This is his home, this is his living room. That’s the main reason.

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“The second reason is that I believe he gets more free points off of his serve. I think he serves better than Alcaraz.

“I am not saying that I think Djokovic is going to win, but those two reasons are two reasons why I think he could win.”

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Tim Henman says Carlos Alcaraz has physical advantage over Novak Djokovic

Djokovic boasts 10 Australian Open titles from his stunning career so far, with Roger Federer and Roy Emerson his nearest rivals in that regard with six.

Conversely, Alcaraz is yet to win a Grand Slam title in Melbourne, instead enjoying success at Wimbledon twice and once at both the French Open and the US Open.

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But former British number one Tim Henman has explained why he thinks a Spanish win is on the cards this time around.

“My two reasons why I think Carlos Alcaraz could win is that I think he has the physicality,” noted Henman.

“He is 15 years younger than Djokovic, playing best of five in these Slams, his movement is incredible. I think that physical element could play a part.

“I think, along similar lines, but I think talking about Alcaraz’s serve – the improvements that he has made.

Player Serve rating % 1st serve % 1st serve points won % 2nd serve points won % Service games won Avg. aces/match Avg. double faults/match Novak Djokovic 285.9 64.1% 75.5% 55.5% 86.1% 7.3 2.6 Carlos Alcaraz 283.8 65.3% 73.0% 57.4% 85.5% 4.7 2.1 Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz serve stats (ATP Tour website)

“He is getting a little bit more firepower than he has in the past, so those free points could be an important factor. I cannot wait for it.

“It doesn’t even seem right that Djokovic versus Alcaraz is a Grand Slam quarter-final. It’s been a Grand Slam and an Olympic final so it’s great we get to witness it one more time.”

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