Anisimova or Sabalenka? Making the case for Wimbledon's top half semifinalists

Aryna or Amanda? No. 1 Sabalenka faces No. 13 Anisimova in Thursday's final four, so let's break down the cases for 2025 Wimbledon's first two semifinalists.

WIMBLEDON – It hasn’t been easy for the World No. 1.

Aryna Sabalenka was forced to win seven games to take sets in each of her first four matches here at the All England Club. And then she dropped her first set against Laura Siegemund -- before charging back to advance to Thursday’s semifinals.

Now there’s another huge challenge waiting for her -- a resurgent Amanda Anisimova, living her best life and playing her best tennis ever.

Anisimova ousts Sabalenka; makes first WTA semifinal in over two years

Anisimova has won five of their previous eight matches. But none of them were on grass, where Anisimova seems to have found a serious groove.

“I definitely think this surface suits her game really well,” Sabalenka told reporters. “That’s why she’s playing so well so far. She’s serving well. She’s hitting quite clean and heavy shots.

“We just played recently at the French Open. I had to work really hard to get the win. I mean, it’s going to be very aggressive tennis, I think.”

Anisimova is ready for the challenge.

“It’s going to be another super tough match,” she acknowledged. “I know she’s going to be playing some amazing tennis. I mean, there’s nobody better that I can play other than her.

“I’m really looking forward to the experience. I mean, I’m going to be playing against a No. 1 in a semifinal of Wimbledon.”

We make the case for each of the semifinalists from the top half of the draw:

The case for Sabalenka

There are lots of statistics floating around, but this one captures Sabalenka’s recent run of dominance: With a win against Anisimova, she’ll roll into her fourth consecutive Grand Slam singles final, something we haven’t seen in a decade (since Serena Williams, of course).

Sabalenka is also trying to become the first woman to reach three major finals in a single year since Angelique Kerber and Williams did it in 2016.

What makes her dangerous? Sabalenka lost the past two of those major finals, to Madison Keys in Melbourne and Coco Gauff at Roland Garros this year. It's also worth noting that Sabalenka failed in her two previous semifinal appearances here, in 2021 and 2023. That’s a whole lot of motivation.

Sabalenka has proven to be extremely adaptable this year, and she’ll have to be that way against Anisimova. Playing the “annoying” and diverse game of Siegemund, Sabalenka was off balance for the better part of three hours. Anisimova has a more direct style.

“Less slices from her,” Sabalenka said, laughing. “But yeah, it’s going to be completely different game from what I had to play against today. She’s a challenging player. I lost tough battles against her. I won tough ones. I’m excited to face her.”

As well she should be, because the 5-3 head-to-head that favors Anisimova is misleading.

Rome: Sabalenka beats Anisimova for 1st time in 5th meeting to make SF

Even though Sabalenka is four years older, Anisimova won the first four matches they played, winning eight of 10 sets. Since then, though, it’s 3-1, Sabalenka. In their only meeting this year, Sabalenka was a 7-5, 6-3 winner in the Roland Garros Round of 16.

All things considered, that most recent history will most likely repeat itself on Thursday.

The case for Anisimova

After converting her fourth match point against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, an overcome Anisimova delightfully face-planted on No. 1 Court. When she scrambled to her feet, she was laughing, yet there were tears in her eyes.

That’s how much this means to her.

She was ranked below No. 400 when she returned from a mental health sabbatical at the beginning of the 2024 season. Now, she’s matched her best-ever Grand Slam singles result (2019 Roland Garros semifinals) and next week will jump into the Top 10 of the PIF WTA Rankings for the first time.

“I’ve done a lot of work since then, have really pushed my way through I feel like this year,” Anisimova said. “I’ve dealt with some injuries and [gotten the better of] that and have worked on my physicality, also.

“Yeah, I feel like everything has been kind of clicking for me, and I've been feeling more and more confident with each tournament I’ve played.”

Pavlyuchenkova was impressed.

“First set, I have to give her credit because I thought she was playing incredible,” she said, “I couldn’t touch the ball at the beginning.”

This is Anisimova at her best, taking it early and letting it fly.

Still only 23, she’s the youngest American woman to reach the Wimbledon semifinals since Serena Williams in 2004. She’s won more matches on grass this year (11) than any other Hologic WTA Tour player. The way she’s playing, she’s a serious threat to reach the 2025 WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF.

“Every single match we’ve played,” Anisimova said of Sabalenka, “it’s always been tough. We've gone three sets in a lot of them. So I think we’re both big hitters, and big hitters like to go at it against each other.

“I feel like we always bring the best in each other’s game, and we always raise the level when we play against each other. I always enjoy the challenge that she brings. I’m sure it’s the same vice versa.”

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