World Cup semifinals: Why Argentina, England, France, and Spain will and won't win the trophy

Forty-eight teams. Six weeks. Now just four remain standing between here and glory. The 2026 World Cup semifinals have delivered a bracket that both neutrals and pundits alike can agree are the top teams in the final four. France, Spain, England, and Argentina are literally the top four FIFA-ranked teams in the world.

The four nations will collide across two matches this week for the right to play for the biggest prize on July 19 in New Jersey. It's the first time in World Cup history that the top four FIFA-ranked nations have all reached the final four together, and the two semifinals are just a preview of the eventual championship final fireworks.

But with such narrow margins separating the top squads, what are those differences between them? Let's take a look at why each team could win it all or how they could blow it.

France are favorites with the firepower

France will face Spain in Dallas, and the odds makers will look to this match for a favorite to lift the cup. It's not hard to guess why.

Les Bleus made quick work of the group stage, defeating Senegal, Norway, and Iraq by multi-goal margins. They then repeated the process against Sweden in the round of 32 with a 3-0 win, followed by a defensive test in the round of 16 against Paraguay with a 1-0 victory, before eliminating Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals.

The squad has functioned with almost a kind of controlled efficiency that has defined their World Cup journey, handling teams with relative ease.

Here's why they'll win: Forward Kylian Mbappe is in outrageous form, ruthless in front of goal, and striking fear in opposing backlines. Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé also give France a wealth of attacking talent. They are two players who can take over games with individual brilliance, or complement Mbappe in tough games.

This is also a squad with a recent World Cup pedigree. They have back-to-back final appearances, winning the 2018 World Cup and a runners-up finish in 2022.

Here's why they won't: While France's attack is lethal, there has only been one serious question mark -- defensive solidity. Reports that William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano both sat out training ahead of Tuesday's semifinal are a concern, as the centerback duo has been the key to a security vault for France.

Another is just the right team, at the worst time. France's journey has been mostly dominant. Now they're up against a team considered a co-favorite in the tournament. If Spain's press disrupts their rhythm, France could find themselves searching for answers.

Spain have belief in their program and a deep bench

Spain will be motivated as being considered the second-favorite behind France to win this World Cup. Their road to the semifinal has been an interesting case study in composure under stress.

La Roja went unbeaten and largely untouched through the group stage, despite a surprising draw against tournament darlings Cabo Verde. And even in early knockouts they cruised against Austria and Portugal, before finally being tested by Belgium, who became the first team to score against them all tournament. Head coach Luis de la Fuente has leaned on his bench for big moments, and Mikel Merino has now scored decisive late goals in back-to-back knockout matches.

While they're one of Europe's giants, they're chasing a title that's eluded them since 2010. The last time they were in the World Cup semifinals was when they won the whole thing, after getting grouped in 2014, and round of 16 exits in 2018 and 2022, they'll want more this time around.

Lamine Yamal, still chasing his first goal of the tournament, remains a nightly threat who forces opposing defenses into uncomfortable decisions, and Rodri's control in midfield has been the platform underpinning everything Spain does.

Here's why they'll win: The case for Spain is they're back in the semifinals for the first time since their 2010 title run, and a defense that conceded just once all tournament suggests this group knows how to grind out results. It makes them different from the 2010 team that won it all. Especially with a 17-year-old Lamine Yamal still chasing his first knockout round goal of the tournament, and Rodri's ability to control the midfield.

Here's why they won't: They've now shown they can be got at, and France's pace in transition is a different kind of test than anything Spain has faced so far. Maybe there's a layer of pressure on Yamal, whether he does or does not perform well in the semi. While Merino's magic off the bench has come just in the nick of time, doing that against France will require more than one spark at the right time.

Bellingham's time to shine for England

England enter the semifinals against Argentina with a genuine belief that this is finally their tournament. While they didn't have an outright dominating group stage, they still earned a first-place group finish with two wins and a scoreless draw.

The knockout rounds have been equally nervy for them. They had to come back, 2-1, against Congo in the round of 32, withstand a comeback from Mexico in their, 3-2, round of 16 win, and needed extra time to sort things out against Norway in their, 2-1, quarterfinal victory.

It's as if the higher the stakes, the harder England makes things for themselves. While the games to date highlight resilience, they also show a tendency to get in their own way.

Here's why they'll win: They have two of the tournament's most dangerous attacking talents in Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham. While Kane carried England's early tournament push, it's been the Bellingham show ever since.

Bellingham's emergence has gone beyond that of a difference-maker. He's scored six goals, four in the knockout rounds and counting. He scored two goals in the round of 16 and the quarterfinal. The performance has England fans daring to dream of a first title since 1966.

The group is also giving a bit of 'us against' everything else energy. The squad messaging often differs from that of its head coach, Thomas Tuchel, out of the locker room, and maybe this will be a case of winning it all "in spite of" instead of "let's go out there and win it for the coach." Wouldn't be the first time. Spain just did so in the 2023 Women's World Cup.

Here's why they won't: Their knockout run has been defined by nervy, narrow escapes rather than outright dominant performances, and their semifinal opponent has a habit of punishing teams that don't take their chances early. If Kane, for some reason, has hit a slog, or Bellingham can't break through, it'll give Argentina more hope and belief down the stretch of the game.

The injury bug could also be catching up to England. Declan Rice has been dealing with a neural issue affecting his lower back and hamstring, and had to be subbed at halftime in the quarterfinal. The roster is also no stranger to conceding goals, and there will be even more pressure on the backline with just two games separating them from modern-day glory.

Messi's last dance, on repeat, for Argentina

Defending champions Argentina have made it back to the semifinals for the second straight World Cup, and at the center of it all, as ever, is Lionel Messi, who has scored eight goals across six matches this tournament.

Argentina made quick work of their group stage, getting a first-place group finish with definitive wins against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan. They were only recently tested in the knockout rounds. Their path to the semifinals hasn't been without controversy.

Argentina needed extra time against Cabo Verde in the round of 32, and had a contentious VAR decision to get past Egypt in their round of 16 comeback. Adding to the recurring theme of tight, dramatic finishes throughout their run is an extra-time quarterfinal with more VAR controversy in a 3-1 win against Switzerland.

Here's why they'll win: The feelings around VAR processes and decisions. This is a team that has been here before. They know how to win knockout football, and Messi has shown he can still take over a match even after going quiet for stretches, as he did against Switzerland. Even if his teammates can't rally against the opposition initially, they respond to Messi.

Here's why they won't: The drama and conceding goals. Leaning on late drama and favorable officiating can only carry a team so far, and attacking talent for England, or even France or Spain, may be the sternest test yet of an Argentina side that hasn't always looked fully convincing.

Look ahead

With France facing Spain in Dallas on Tuesday and England taking on Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday, the World Cup's final chapter is set to be defined by contrasting styles. French speed and firepower against Spanish control, English emergence against Argentine experience. Whoever survives will meet in East Rutherford on July 19, with a World Cup title on the line.

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