Survivor pool picks, predictions, advice, strategy: Top Week 3 NFL survivor pool selections

"You do it to yourself, you do, and that’s what really hurts … Is that you do it to yourself, just you. You do it to yourself" — “Just”, Radiohead (1995)

The chorus to Radiohead’s 30-year-old classic mod-rock song “Just” applies to the feeling you get when you’ve trusted the Dallas Cowboys to win as a favorite at home for your Survivor “life.”

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Especially when, all of a sudden, Russell Wilson has turned back the clock to a level of production that only the enhancing effects of nostalgia can make anyone believe he ever reached.

Even after experiencing Giants-Cowboys, as if it were the latest one-word horror title from director Jordan Peele, it remains unclear how Dallas won and survived, amidst every other sensible Week 2 contender doing so without breaking much of a sweat.

Alas, it’s never about how easily you won, even if you made a series of deals with the devil on the way to Week 3.

Contest sizes can vary. From the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that. However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.

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Week 3 moneylines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).

*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.

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Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams, and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

Ravens: 20.0

Bills: 20.0

Eagles: 18.6

Packers: 17.6

Lions: 16.7

Rams: 16.7

Chargers: 16.5

Chiefs: 15.9

Broncos: 15.4

Steelers: 15.1

Cardinals: 14.9

49ers: 14.6

Bucs: 14.3

Seahawks: 13.8

Texans: 13.5

Vikings: 13.5

Cowboys: 13.5

Jaguars: 13.5

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 3 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.

Week 3’s top choices

As we look at the best options for Week 3 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from the pick and previous ones.

Team(s) you’ve most likely used:

Broncos (most popular selection Week 1)

Cardinals, Ravens, Cowboys

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The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those future matchups).

1. Seahawks (77.6%) over Saints

Seattle is currently rated as a top-18 team, so it’s qualified to be considered for use at some point this season. Like the Cardinals last week, picking the Seahawks requires a leap of faith that their defense will be able to limit the opposing quarterback, and the home side’s QB won’t make a crucial mistake to keep the underdog in it.

What you’re giving up:

Week 17 at Panthers (SEA -5.5)

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Unlike Arizona, who had other potential options on the schedule allowing for us to hold them back long enough to prove they’re a Survivor-worthy squad, the Seahawks don’t allow for the same patience, with just one viable option the rest of the way. Going clear across the country to Carolina in Week 17 feels like a far sketchier time to trust the Seahawks, who are relatively healthy now. They fit the bill as a high-probability team who won’t likely be an option going forward.

2. Bills (86.5%) over Dolphins

Like the Ravens last week, the Bills are the biggest favorite of the week, and expected to win comfortably. If you had the Cowboys last week, it is incredibly tempting to try to have an easy week, especially one that you can get over with on Thursday night.

If only such things existed in the NFL.

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The market is down on the 0-2 Dolphins, pushing the Bills up to -12, but on a short week, you never know what can happen when the game plans between division rivals are bare bones. After all, last year’s matchup in Buffalo came down to a game-winning field goal in the final seconds, and last week shouldn’t wipe the Bills’ Week 1 defensive performance from our memories.

What you’re giving up:

Week 4 vs. Saints (BUF -14.5)

Week 5 vs. Patriots (BUF -9.5)

Week 9 at Panthers (BUF -11)

Week 18 vs. Jets (BUF -12)

Naturally, with a team of Buffalo's quality, there are plenty of options throughout the schedule. If you’re willing to sweat out a different matchup that’s lined as a one-possession game, you can literally use Buffalo next week against a far less-capable offense. The Bills have a lookahead line of -14.5 against the Saints.

3. Buccaneers (73.8%) over Jets

The Buccaneers become considerably more attractive since Tyrod Taylor is now forced into action for an injured Justin Fields. Taylor is the veteran, less-talented version of Fields. Taylor fits the mold in the offense, but if he was better he would have found a way to hold a starter’s job among the many teams he’s played for. Being a good “vibes guy” in the locker room is great, but doesn’t play as well on the field, since the Jets’ offense is predicated on Fields’ dual-threat capabilities. As for Tampa Bay, returning home on a short week doesn’t set up great after a last-second win.

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What you’re giving up:

Week 10 vs. Patriots (TB -4)

Week 14 vs. Saints (TB -7.5)

Week 18 vs. Panthers (TB -9.5)

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

The schedule gets a lot trickier for the Buccaneers for the next couple months. Even their December road games are potentially playable with trips to Carolina and Miami. Having multiple options for Tampa late in the season allows you to evaluate whether you should save them for Week 18 on an almost week-to-week basis. Plus, given how banged-up the Bucs offensive line is, waiting on some better health is potentially prudent.

4. Falcons (68.6%) over Panthers

You’ll note that the Falcons aren’t listed as a top-18 team above, but the reason they’ve made this list is due to how poorly the Panthers have played so far this season, and news of two starting Carolina offensive lineman having suffered injuries keeping them out of this game.

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This game was lined near-pick’em as recently as last week, so Atlanta being a significant favorite is a new development off of just two data points early this season.

What you’re giving up:

Week 11 vs. Panthers

Week 18 vs. Saints

If the Falcons are worthy of using instead of the teams above, they’re definitely worthy of using them when they play the Panthers at home. Plus, a quick look at the board that week shows some difficult matchups elsewhere, with a Thursday Night Football matchup of Jets-Patriots having potentially the next-largest point spread.

Week 18 is such a wild card, that saving a team for the season’s final game is probably a fools’ errand, but two elements you’re looking for in a pick are:

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A team with two viable quarterbacks, in case one gets hurt

A team who’s unlikely to be sitting starters in preparation for an already-clinched playoff run

Don’t let the first two weeks fool you, there’s still a long way to go, and it doesn’t matter if your survival is “Just,” so long as you get to play again next week.

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