PGA Championship props: Banking on an American winner at Aronimink Golf Club

With 85 players representing the stars and stripes in a field of 156, including the defending champion Scottie Scheffler, I will lean on the math and depth. Australian Jason Day, the champion at Whistling Straits in 2015, was the last non-American winner of the Wanamaker Trophy. That’s 10 straight for the red, white and blue, which matches a tournament record in the stroke-play era.

Neither man has won a major championship, but both arrive at Aronimink in their best form of the season. Time to strike while the iron is hot! Åberg, who held the 54-hole lead at THE PLAYERS Championship before drifting to T5, now owns four top-eight results from his last five events. The only outlier was T21 at the Masters. Of his last 20 rounds, he signed for 18 at par or better. Cantlay produced all three of his top-10 finishes of 2026 in his last four events. The outlier was T12 at the Masters last month. Cantlay is excellent on approach and around the greens and is comfortably flying under the radar upon arrival.

Fowler is turning up the heat as he enters his first major championship of the season. Failing to qualify for the Masters, he cranked up his play in April and early May. He arrives in Philadelphia off T8, T9 and T2 finishes in the three previous Signature Events. A super putter, currently ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting, he is wise enough to find his way around a proper setup. The biggest story of the week at Myrtle Beach probably was Brandt Snedeker winning for the 10th time on TOUR, but for the first time since 2018. For me, it was Brooks Koepka who found his love for the game again. Closing with 64, including a closing 29, he produced his lowest round on TOUR since 2021. I do not have to remind you that he owns five major championships. In six visits to the weekend this season, he cashed T18 or better, including T11 last time out.

Justin Rose won his only major championship, the 2013 U.S. Open, eight miles down the road at Merion Golf Club, and won the 2010 AT&T National at Aronimink Golf Club before Gil Hanse’s 2016 renovations. Before missing the cut at Quail Hollow Club in 2025, the Englishman racked up seven consecutive paydays, including a run of T6, T9, T13, T8 and ninth. I’m adding Sepp Straka, the 2025 Truist Championship winner at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, J.J. Spaun, the 2025 U.S. Open winner at Oakmont, and the 2018 BMW Championship winner at this course, Keegan Bradley.

I parlayed the six players who have the longest active streaks of playing the weekend at the PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy leads the group with nine consecutive cuts made, followed by Matt Wallace (seven), Viktor Hovland (six), Collin Morikawa (six), Keegan Bradley (five) and Tyrrell Hatton (five). If you are unsure about Morikawa and his back issue, the other five players would return +470. Replacing Morikawa with Scottie Scheffler, who has not missed the weekend in any event since August of 2022, would produce a return of +502.

For reasons too long to list, it is not a surprise to see Hideki Matsuyama (-136) listed as the favorite in this four-person group. I am going to push in on the 23-year-old who is having a better season of the two. Entering the week with four top-10 paydays, Hisatsune has not missed the cut in 12 consecutive starts in 2026. Making his third consecutive start at the PGA Championship, he cashed T18 on debut at Valhalla in 2024 and followed with T37 at Quail Hollow Club in 2025. Over the last six events when they were both entered, Hisatsune won the head-to-head battle four times. The wild card in the group is Kota Kaneko (+480), also 23, who cashed T9 and T19 in back-to-back weeks on the DP World Tour before missing the cut in his previous outing. He is also making his first start in a major championship. I don’t need the extra pressure.

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