How realistic is a non-Old Firm title challenge?

With champions Celtic arguably in a weaker state and city rivals Rangers enduring their worst league start since 1983, is this the season a non-Old Firm club finally delivers a serious Scottish Premiership title challenge?

Despite Brendan Rodgers' side being a penalty shootout win away from securing another domestic treble just four months ago, there is a sense things have gone a bit stale at Parkhead.

The Celtic support became increasingly irate throughout the transfer window because of a lack of business they deemed acceptable.

That fury only intensified when a hugely underwhelming deadline day followed the club's Champions League exit and a blunt display in a goalless Old Firm draw.

Rangers, meanwhile, have splashed the cash under new ownership but have won just three games out of 11 under head coach Russell Martin, who is also yet to taste victory in four league matches.

With the mood at both clubs verging on turmoil, what are the chances of a team outside Glasgow taking advantage for the first time in 40 years?

Following the dreary derby stalemate at Ibrox, many were starting to feel Tony Bloom's bullish comments were not so outlandish.

Last month, the Brighton & Hove Albion owner, who now has a 29% stake in Heart of Midlothian, said the Tynecastle club have a "very good chance of at least being second" this campaign.

The Gorgie side are making use of Bloom's Jamestown Analytics software, which proved integral in Union Saint-Gilloise's remarkable rise to become Belgian top-flight champions for the first time in 90 years just last season.

Despite that, Bloom's bold remarks were predictably sneered at across the country.

A month later, Celtic and Rangers played out one of the worst Old Firm derbies in living memory off the back of their own European humiliations.

Martin's men failed to have a shot on target in the match. Brendan Rodgers' side had just two.

On the evidence of that contest alone, there should be nothing to frighten non-Old Firm teams when facing Glasgow's big two this term.

And it was Bloom's fearlessness that caught the eye when he declared Hearts are in a position to challenge now.

That is also the view of former Hearts boss Robbie Neilson, who told the BBC's Scottish Football Podcast: "At the start of the season, I said it was probably going to be a one-horse race. Now I think it's potentially a two, maybe even a three, if you look at what Hearts have done."

Well, what have Hearts done?

As well as recruiting 10 new faces with the influence of Bloom's Jamestown model, they have appointed a head coach in Derek McInnes whose vast experience in Scottish football includes pushing Celtic for titles with Aberdeen.

In four straight seasons between 2014-15 and 2017-18, McInnes' Dons finished as runners-up in the Premiership, albeit Rangers were not in the top flight for three of those campaigns.

This term, his Hearts team have needed late goals and comebacks to take 10 points from their opening four league games but that tally leaves them level with a Celtic side who are top on goal difference.

With a trip to Rangers to come on Saturday, a rare win at Ibrox would be a statement from McInnes' men.

Despite being five points off Celtic and Hearts with a game to spare, Hibernian might well have the same aspirations as their city rivals after their third-placed finish last term.

European exploits have been a factor in their back-to-back league draws with Kilmarnock and St Mirren, but the Leith side’s performances on the continent demonstrated how serious a team they are.

David Gray's men can count themselves unlucky with the draws they were handed, yet they still avoided defeat in three away legs with Midtjylland, Partizan Belgrade and Legia Warsaw.

A vital part of those impressive showings has to be the continuity within the squad.

Hibs have retained almost all of their best XI from last term and have arguably upgraded the midfield with the additions of Josh Mulligan, Jamie McGrath and Miguel Chaiwa.

At the end of November, Gray's side were bottom of the table, but a remarkable run of form stretching to the end of the season earned them third spot.

In their past 28 league games, they have lost just three times.

Their points-per-game tally over that period is verging on two, which would average out to a total of 76 over the course of a 38-game season.

That would have been enough to finish just a point above Rangers last term but Celtic on 92 would have still been way in the distance.

When you think how difficult it would be for a club like Hibs to maintain that form over the course of a campaign, it only reinforces the challenge of finishing second, never mind first.

It tells us to put a big pin in our balloon of optimism - or at least let a good bit of air out of it.

It is easy to watch either - or both - of Glasgow’s big two and bin them off after they fail to pass the eye test, but they will likely still go on to post points tallies non-Old Firm clubs cannot find the consistency to come close to.

We are seeing that already in the infancy of the current campaign, with Hibs drawing two of their three opening games.

Meanwhile, despite a statement end to the transfer window, Aberdeen are rooted to the foot of the table with three straight defeats.

Closing the sizeable margin between second and third could prove hard enough. The average distance between the two spots over the past five seasons is 22 points.

That gap reflects a widening financial chasm, with qualification for Uefa's club competitions playing a key role.

While Celtic and Rangers have both failed to reach the Champions League this season, both still accounted for about 86% of the transfer fees spent in the Premiership this summer, according to Transfermarkt, external.

It makes the Edinburgh pair breaking their transfer records in the past window look like a tiny drop in the ocean.

And Hearts (74) and Hibs (67) would likely also have to smash their top-flight points records to stand a chance of even finishing second.

A Rangers side that was led by Barry Ferguson for the final three months of last term failed to win 16 games over the course of the 2024-25 Premiership campaign yet they still finished 17 points clear of Hibs in third.

Hearts investor Bloom has stressed the importance of "challenging the establishment". Come the end of this season, he will have a clearer picture of how realistic that is.

Click here to read article