Target this same-game parlay for 'TNF'

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A dropped pass by Eagles running back Saquon Barkley in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter killed our chances to cash a same-game parlay Monday.

Nonetheless, it’s back to the drawing board for Thursday night as the New York Jets play their home opener in Week 3 against the New England Patriots.

There’s certainly a price that comes along with being one of the more popular teams that can challenge for an NFL title. As a result, the Jets are set to play their third game in 10 days and second in prime time.

With New York laying 6.5 points at home, we can shift the odds more in our favor by taking advantage of some alternate lines in a same-game parlay with the visitors at +7.5 and the under at 46 points.

Patriots vs. Jets odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Patriots +6.5 (-120) +220 o38.5 (-110) Jets -6.5 (-110) -275 u38.5 (-110) Odds via BetMGM

Patriots vs. Jets same-game parlay (BetMGM)

Leg 1: Patriots ALT spread +7.5

Patriots ALT spread +7.5 Leg 2: ALT total under 46 points

Patriots ALT Spread +7.5

The Patriots enter this game allowing the fifth-fewest points (16.5) through two weeks.

Their new head coach, Jerod Mayo, inherited a team with the ninth-best Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric in 2023.

Pro Football Focus gave the Patriots a B- for their offseason grade because while they didn’t have any significant free-agent additions, they also had no major departures.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returns to the team that initially drafted him 91st overall in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

While Brissett has often been one of those tweeners throughout his career—not quite good enough to be a regular starter but probably more deserving than being resigned to the bench—perhaps he can benefit from a return to his old stomping grounds.

With New England clearly in a rebuilding mode, stability at the quarterback position is what the team needs to partner with a defense that’s more than capable of getting stops when necessary.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets look to bring their primetime performance on “Thursday Night Football.” AP

In Week 1, the Patriots held the same Bengals team that scored 25 points against the Chiefs to 10 points before losing in overtime the following week to a Seahawks outfit that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA.

Now they’ll face a Jets offense that hasn’t looked nearly as convincing in their ability to cover a point spread within a touchdown margin.

ALT Total under 46 points

Despite a low opening total of 40 points, we’ve seen that number drop even further to 38.5.

Both quarterbacks are much more methodical at these early stages of the season as they haven’t been as willing to push the ball down the field.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Brissett (5.9) and Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (6.3), rank in the bottom quartile of intended air yards per pass attempt.

One thing we can expect to see is a commitment by New England to run the ball.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been dominating the run game for New England. Getty Images

The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rush attempts per game, which is the third-highest mark in the league.

As a result, it’s no surprise to see that New England is dominating the time of possession with its running game, as it ranks fifth with an average of roughly 34 minutes per game.

The Jets’ run defense hasn’t been particularly good to start the year, ranking 26th in DVOA while allowing 155 yards per game on the ground.

Betting on the NFL?

Opposing teams already have a 50.8% run play rate against the Jets, which means they’re more than willing to offset a lower expected points added (EPA) in exchange for controlling the tempo of the game.

With this being a divisional game, an adjusted total of under 46 points should pair nicely with the Patriots at +7.5.

Best bet: Same-game parlay (+115, BetMGM)

Patriots ALT spread +7.5

ALT total under 46 points

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.

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