NFL insider playoff predictions: Coaches, execs pick divisional round winners

What a crazy way to open the NFL postseason. The wild-card round was loaded with close calls, back-and-forth games and unforgettable drama.

Yet it was all so … predictable.

Last week, The Athletic asked a panel of NFL coaches and team executives to predict the wild-card round winners, and it delivered with a clean sweep, nailing all six games.

Breaking it down by individual ballots, we had one perfect picker on the panel in the wild-card round, and four cards went 5-1. Interestingly, all four picked a different loser, so there was no upset that universally rocked the group.

And for the panelists’ perfect insight, they were rewarded with more work because we asked them to come back and do it again for the divisional round. As a reminder, panelists were not asked to make a pick if their team was involved in the game.

No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5, 1-0 playoffs) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

Expert picks: Broncos 7, Bills 4

Bills quarterback Josh Allen unleashed another dominant performance in a 27-24 victory against the Jaguars, completing 28-of-35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown, to go along with 33 rushing yards and two scores. He bailed out the defense by rallying twice for fourth-quarter touchdowns to set up a playoff meeting with the Broncos for the second year in a row.

“Superman is coming out,” an executive said.

But Allen hit the injury tent twice against the Jaguars, first for a concussion evaluation and then for a potential leg injury. Allen will play and more than likely be fine, but there are concerns about the accumulation of wear and tear, as it’ll impact the Bills’ championship aspirations.

Plus, the Bills have compiled injuries later this season, and their depth has taken a hit. Can Allen continue to play to a perfect standard to carry them into another round? That’s the panel’s greatest concern.

“The Bills have too many injuries to overcome at this point,” a second exec said. “I thought the quarterback wasn’t going to make it out of the first half of that (Jaguars) game.”

The Broncos need to control the game on the ground. Their 16th-ranked rushing attack wasn’t overly electric this season, but they should have success against the Bills’ No. 28 rush defense. And if Bo Nix can have more success with designed runs than Trevor Lawrence did, it’d further test the Bills’ vulnerable front.

“That stadium is tough,” a third executive said of Empower Field at Mile High. “The Broncos defense is nasty, and the Broncos offense should be able to run the ball. It may be close, but the Broncos are a fourth-quarter team, and so are the Bills. So it should be fun.”

The Broncos have won 13 of 14, and they’re rested. Their defense ranked third in points allowed and second in yards, and their 68 sacks easily set the pace — 11 more than any other team and 20 more than any other playoff team.

Allen should be able to attack the middle of Denver’s defense, though, and the Bills can ride rushing champion James Cook to control the game. Allen was efficient in last year’s playoff blowout, and Cook tallied 120 of the Bills’ 210 rushing yards in that game.

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 1-0) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

Expert picks: Seahawks 6, 49ers 3

Both teams have declared they wanted this rematch, and now they’ve got it.

Not too surprisingly, the panelists felt strongly about the Seahawks two weeks after they dismantled the 49ers 13-3 in San Francisco with the NFC’s top seed on the line. Niners quarterback Brock Purdy was held without a touchdown for the only time this season, while running back Christian McCaffrey’s 57 yards from scrimmage were a season-low and just the fifth time he didn’t hit the century mark.

The Niners played without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall in that matchup, but Williams has since returned, and Pearsall appears to be close to returning, as well. Linebacker Fred Warner won’t play after dislocating his ankle in October and tight end George Kittle is out with a torn Achilles. The injuries have been a continuous story for the Niners.

“No Kittle hurts,” an executive said of the star tight end who caught five of Purdy’s 19 completions in the teams’ Week 18 matchup.

“The 49ers are just so banged up,” another executive said.

Fun fact: The Niners have won exactly two playoff games in each of their last six postseason appearances, with four of those under coach Kyle Shanahan. They’ve won back-to-back road games in two of those postseasons, so they have precedent on their side.

The Seahawks will have a full-throated home-field advantage, though, with this being their first playoff game in front of fans in nine years. (Their last home playoff game was in January 2021, following the COVID-19 season.) Their victory against the Niners in the finale wasn’t just vital for the standings, as they also erased the sour taste of losing seven of their previous eight games to their NFC West rivals.

Offensively, the Seahawks ranked third in scoring and eighth in total yards, but their 28 turnovers were the second most in the NFL and five more than any other playoff team. They led the league with 13 lost fumbles.

Quarterback Sam Darnold had the second-best season of his career and helped wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead the league with 1,793 receiving yards, but Darnold’s 14 interceptions were also his second most.

“Darnold will be the X-factor either way,” said a coach who picked the Seahawks. “His play determines the outcome of the game.”

While Darnold and the offense are capable of exploding at any given moment, the Seahawks will go as far as their defense will carry them. Coach Mike Macdonald, who will make his playoff debut, helped the Seahawks lead the league in points allowed for the first time since 2012-15. They also ranked third against the run, sixth in takeaways (25) and tied for seventh in sacks (47).

“Seattle’s defense is nasty, nasty,” an executive said.

The 49ers had 22 regular-season giveaways, two interceptions in their 23-19 victory against the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round and fumbled twice (recovering both), so ball security has a chance to be the major story of this game.

No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5, 1-0) at No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3, 1-0)

Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC/ESPN

Expert picks: Patriots 7, Texans 3

The Patriots have awoken from a half-decade hibernation and are set to host the hottest team in the league, which boasts a ferocious defense and just won a playoff game for the third year in a row. The Texans might have sent Aaron Rodgers into retirement in the process.

And yet, the panelists were primarily focused on one man: Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

“The way Drake is playing — other than this past week, I don’t think Drake is going to have two in a row like that,” an executive said. “That’s a really tough place to play. I don’t know if the Texans are going to run the ball and possess it enough to keep Drake Maye off the field.”

The Texans are riding a 10-game winning streak, and they’ve scored 30 or more points in four of those games. However, quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense haven’t been the most consistent group, and wide receiver Nico Collins is in the concussion protocol. Furthermore, they finished 22nd in rushing yards and 29th in yards per carry this season, so they don’t help Stroud on the ground.

But the defense scored five times in the regular season and twice more in the 30-6 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round. The Texans forced 29 regular-season turnovers, third most in the NFL.

“This is the best team the Patriots have seen,” a second executive said.

The Patriots’ .391 strength of schedule was easily the worst in the league, but they can redirect that narrative by taking down the Texans, who are 5-1 against playoff opponents since Week 8.

Both quarterbacks are coming off games with uncharacteristically poor ball security. Stroud threw an interception and fumbled five times, losing two, against the Steelers. But Stroud only fumbled twice all season and didn’t lose one until the playoff game. He also cut down on his interceptions from 12 in 2024 (on 2.3 percent of his throws) to eight this season (1.9 percent of throws).

“Stroud will take care of the football,” the second executive said.

Maye threw a pick during the Patriots’ 16-3 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers, and he also fumbled twice, losing one. That’s a little more explainable with the five sacks. But Maye also cut down on his interceptions from 10 as a rookie (3 percent of throws) to eight in 2025 (1.6 percent). He lost three fumbles during the season.

A defensive coordinator pointed toward Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ historical success against the Texans’ defensive scheme. The coach predicted McDaniels would neutralize the Texans’ explosive edge rushers to allow Maye to play the game on his terms.

Eventually, an executive predicted, the Patriots will generate too much offensive pressure for Houston to withstand if its own offense isn’t doing enough.

“The Texans’ running game isn’t there,” the executive said. “You want to have faith in that defense, but I don’t trust the offense to take enough pressure off them.”

No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 1-0) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6, 1-0)

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

Expert picks: Rams 9, Bears 2

If this becomes a quarterback duel, Caleb Williams will have a hard time matching Matthew Stafford’s consistency. Then again, Williams has unquestionably been at his best in the most dire circumstances because of his athleticism and extraordinary arm talent.

That’s just a tough way to live in the playoffs.

“The Rams will get a lead, then the pass rushers will start getting after Caleb, and they have the speed to chase him down,” an executive said.

Edge rushers Byron Young (12 sacks), Jared Verse (7.5) and Kobie Turner (seven) lead the way for the Rams, who ranked seventh during the season with 47 sacks.

Williams has understandably generated the most attention, but the Bears’ offensive identity is through their physicality within their running game. They were third in rushing offense with D’Andre Swift (1,087 yards, nine touchdowns) and Kyle Monangai (783 yards, five touchdowns) leading the way. The Rams have been susceptible to the run at times this season.

Stafford, an MVP candidate, has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 16 of his 18 starts this season, including the last 12. The Rams led the league in points for the first time since 2017, and a couple of panelists believe Rams coach Sean McVay has a steep advantage against Chicago’s defense.

“I don’t trust the Bears defense,” an executive said. “I don’t know that they’re ready for a big game yet.”

Turnovers could be the key in this game, too. The Bears finished a league-best plus-22 in the turnover department this season, with the Rams ranking fifth at plus-11. They both take it away, with the Bears No. 1 with 33 forced turnovers and the Rams at No. 5 with 26. And neither give it back, with the Bears also No. 1 with 11 giveaways and the Rams at No. 6 with just 15 turnovers.

A break in that pattern could be an X-factor. Another could be the Rams’ woeful special teams.

And by now, the Rams are well aware that the Bears seem to have nine lives. Williams had a league-high six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season, and he’s one-for-one in the playoffs. The Rams are 5-5 in one-possession games this season, including their 34-31 playoff victory against the Carolina Panthers, but they won’t be comfortable with a coin-flip finish against Williams and the cardiac Bears.

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