‘All chips in’: Frontrunner yet to enter 16-man coaching process; ‘difficult’ Hird dilemma — State of Play

The AFL’s three biggest coaching vacancies are all at different stages, with Essendon, Carlton and Tasmania each taking contrasting approaches in their search for a new senior coach.

While the Bombers are casting the widest net with an extensive interview process, Carlton’s interim success under Josh Fraser surely continues to reshape its thinking, and the 19th AFL side in Tasmania appears closest to making its inaugural appointment.

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Speaking on Fox Footy’s AFL 360, journalist Sam Edmund and St Kilda great Leigh Montagna unpacked the latest on each coaching race, including where the leading contenders stand at each club.

And for some left-field analogy, the panel alongside Kath Loughnan gave each vacancy their own racing analogy, given how different a flavour each race has.

Tasmania — 1200m sprint for a three-horse race

Carlton — 2500m derby, made up of the best three-year-old horses

Essendon — 3200m cup in a handicapped race

Read the full transcript discussing each vacancy below:

ESSENDON

Sam Edmund says: “Firstly, where it’s at with Essendon at the moment, is a new lexicon has entered the footy arena in recent months. It’s called: ‘The Coffee Catch-Up’, and Essendon are thick in the middle of the coffee catch-up at the moment. They’re reaching out to as many as 15 aspirants at the moment; just to gauge their keenness for the role and whether they’re still keen to go through the process. Then, they’re going to interview, I’m told, up to 10 candidates — which sounds like a lot. It’s unclear whether John Longmire will be a part of this process or not; the feeling is he’s a ‘gun for hire’, but the Bombers refused to confirm his name when I spoke to them earlier on today. We know James Kelly said he would go through the process ... a lot of Essendon heritage. “

On John Longmire: “I can’t confirm whether he’s in there. What I would say about those sorts of guys, whether it be Ken Hinkley or Longmire, or any other established coach, they’re not going to be involved in the initial phase. You speak to enough people who have been through these processes, and someone like Longmire is not going to avail himself to the first interview — his resume is there. They know what he’s capable of ... but, does it get to a stage later on in six weeks where he becomes part of the process? I think that’s a very real chance, without knowing what’s going to happen in Tassie.

On James Hird: There’s a big Essendon flavour with this, which makes it so difficult to assess. You hear someone like Kevin Sheedy; he’s so strong in his support for James Hird. Not once, not twice, but multiple times. Then, you hear Matthew Lloyd who has almost come full circle, and now got to a point where he’s essentially called Hird the only one who can save Essendon, more or less. Yet, you speak to Essendon and say: ‘What influence does that have over your process?’ They say: ‘Zero, nothing, nada, zilch’.

Leigh Montagna says: Using that racing analogy, it almost feels like every loss that every loss, Dean Solomon is carrying more and more weight going ‘into the Melbourne Cup’ — to the point where he probably can’t win it, if they continue to lose ... does it enhance James Hird’s chances, in that it’s maybe more than just getting the best coach that might have the best tactical plan or relationship with players?

Edmund: Don’t you actually have to be able to coach the team? It’s hard to think that someone like Hird, if you stacked his resume up over time — with all of the established assistants I mentioned — and especially someone like a John Longmire, if he is part of the process, how he could possibly win that process. On coaching, nous, resume, background over the last 10 years. But, if you are after a uniter, a gatherer and healer, then it’s hard to think that there could be anyone better than James in this moment ... in many ways, they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Montagna: “That’s what the panel have to decide between: what is more important for the Essendon Football Club with where they’re at right now as a club.”

CARLTON

Sam Edmund on Josh Fraser: “I find it inconceivable to think that a man who has been flawless (and) hasn’t put a foot wrong, is 7-0 ... it’s inconceivable to think that he at least wouldn’t be a part of the process. He has to be a part of the process, and I’m fully expecting him to be a part of the process in time. But, the narrative that he’s set and stuck to... he’s a bit like James Hird, he’s very clever. Why would you rock the boat now? Why would you change your mind and a complete 180 and say: ‘Yep, I’m in’. That opens him up to a whole other layer of questions from the media. ‘Why hasn’t Carlton appointed you’ ... don’t rock the boat now.

Leigh Montagna says: “You don’t want to change anything. I said (Monday) night that it feels very similar. He’ll keep this line until probably 2-3 weeks time when the process starts to narrow down. He will be, I think, in that process. Do you think then, the next question is ‘would he be the favourite right now for the job?’

Edmund: It’s a very hard one to answer ... when it comes to the coffee catch-ups, they’ve done all theirs, just about. There’s somewhere around 16 names in this group here, I’m told. So that’s going to be widdled down to maybe half a dozen or four, for some real in-depth interviews and presentations — which is where Adam Simpson will come in with scenarios and some game-based stuff and the like to really ‘test the metal’ of these coaches. It’s hard to say whether he would be favourite or not, but it’s getting harder and harder for him to answer the question. If it’s 8-0 and they beat Hawthorn (on Saturday), then it’s going to be nigh on impossible for him to answer the question.

Montagna: It’s going to take a very, very impressive presentation to top him you’d think. Because he’s already got the proof in the pudding about adjustments with game day, and personnel ... all those things that Adam Simpson is going to ask the prospective coaches in their presentations. Josh Fraser’s got proof.

Edmund: “Shouldn’t sleep on the resume. In 14 years, he’s coached his own teams, he’s been an assistant coach at AFL level, he’s been a development coach at AFL and now he’s a senior coach at AFL level. He’s ticked every box there is to tick ... there would be no one on this earth that thought Josh Fraser would harness that group like he has done. From the biggest losing streak in the game, to the biggest (winning) one.”

TASMANIA

Sam Edmund says: “We know he’s (Longmire) in for Tasmania, we absolutely know that — we can state that as fact. That is a three-horse race. It’s feeling like that timeline will come to fruition sooner than the other two, don’t we? Given Tasmania is on the record (CEO Brendon Gale) as saying they want this done by the end of the season. It might even be done earlier than that.

“This is quality not quantity, isn’t it? We’ve got three guys who have achieved so much in the game. I mentioned that ‘Bucks’ has presented again — that’s the second time he’s done so formally. John Longmire and Ken Hinkley, they’ll present formally within the next two to three weeks themselves ... these three are not going to be easily separated on experience, knowledge and nous. Hinkley met with Gale in May, but that was more under the guise of a ‘Head of Football’ role. His next meeting will be about being the senior coach. All chips in the middle of the table for him and John Longmire. They want a coach appointed by the end of the season, (but) what I’m hearing is it might come to hand earlier than that. This one will be the first one done.

Leigh Montagna says: “I like Ken Hinkley’s approach. I think he’d be great for Tasmania ... Kenny would be good.”

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