College football Week 1 predictions: Texas vs. Ohio State, more picks against the spread

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The majority of the 136 FBS teams don’t open their respective seasons until this weekend, but we can already start slicing down the field of contenders.

In the past decade, there hasn’t been a national champion ranked lower than fifth in the AP preseason poll. Since 1991, just two national champions have emerged from outside the preseason’s top 15.

But unlike most seasons, there has rarely been so much mystery — and such wide floor-to-ceiling variance — among the top teams.

Georgia’s Gunner Stockton has made one career start, a playoff loss to Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish turn to redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who has never appeared in a college game. Alabama’s Ty Simpson has thrown 50 passes in three seasons. Oregon’s Dante Moore is getting his second chance, two years removed from the highly touted prospect’s bumpy freshman year at UCLA. Carson Beck is resurfacing at Miami following shoulder surgery and a disappointing, interception-heavy campaign.

And of course, No. 1 Texas and No. 3 Ohio State are set to battle in a season-opening, semifinal rematch.

The Longhorns enter the season as the top-ranked team in the nation for the first time in program history, with the prince of football’s first family (Arch Manning) finally the starter in his third season. The Buckeyes’ repeat hopes hinge on Julian Sayin, another former top-rated prospect, who threw 12 passes as a freshman.

Manning — the preseason Heisman favorite after throwing for 939 yards and completing nearly 68 percent of his passes in limited action last year — has never thrown a college pass outside of Austin, but he is better prepared for the high-profile matchup, facing a defense without its championship coordinator (Jim Knowles) and last season’s entire defensive line. Sayin’s first start will come against one of the nation’s best defenses, featuring a stacked secondary, which helped Texas record the most interceptions in the nation last season.

Hook ’em Horns (+2.5).

6 Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws during an NCAA college football practice in Austin, Texas, Wednesday, July 30, 2025. AP

SOUTH FLORIDA (+5.5) over Boise State

The Broncos’ first game of the post-Ashton Jeanty era is tougher than it appears, a 2,600-mile trip, facing an opponent with more continuity than any team in the AAC, coming off its second straight bowl win. The heat and humidity won’t help.

Nebraska (-6.5) over Cincinnati

The neutral-site affair will be a sea of red, with Arrowhead Stadium just a three-hour drive from Lincoln. The Cornhuskers’ long-awaited breakthrough may finally be upon us — with a manageable schedule and an accomplished offensive coordinator (Dana Holgorsen) who can unlock Dyan Raiola’s potential. Matt Rhule won 10 games in his third year at Temple. He won 11 games in his third year at Baylor. Nebraska, a playoff sleeper, could hit double digits for the first time in 13 years.

6 Colorado head coach Deion Sanders directs players during an NCAA college football practice Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025, in Boulder, Colo. AP

Georgia Tech (-4.5) over COLORADO

Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are no longer around to mask the weaknesses of the Buffaloes, who finished last season with the nation’s second-worst ground game, one of the lowest-rated special teams units and among the 10 most-penalized teams. Deion Sanders’ latest batch of transfers aren’t prepared for a physical opponent with an accomplished offense — led by quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes, who averaged 5.6 yards per carry last season.

BAYLOR (+2.5) over Auburn

After getting benched at Oklahoma, Jackson Arnold — who had fewer yards per attempt (5.8) than all but one qualified FBS quarterback last season — is already looking over his shoulder, with Hugh Freeze suggesting he could use all three quarterbacks in the season-opener. The Bears have stability in senior Sawyer Robertson, who led Baylor to a six-game win streak to close last season.

6 Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze talks to the media during SEC Media Days at Omni Atlanta Hotel.

Syracuse (+13.5) over Tennessee

Joey Aguilar, who threw 24 interceptions in two seasons at Appalachian State, needs time to gel with the Vols’ unproven crop of receivers — time that may be in short supply behind an offensive line with four new starters.

PENN STATE (-45.5) over Nevada

If the Nittany Lions don’t win it all this season, they might never do it under James Franklin. In addition to bringing back so much of the core of last year’s playoff semifinalist — and stealing Jim Knowles from Ohio State — Penn State was also awarded one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have covered nearly 70 percent of their games as a favorite in the past four seasons.

6 Penn State head coach James Franklin speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

GEORGIA (-39.5) over Marshall

Kirby Smart’s teams almost always start strong, allowing an average of 5.25 points in his past eight season openers. The Bulldogs have won their past three openers by an average of more than 39 points — including blowouts of two top-15 teams (Oregon, Clemson) — and open this season against a lightweight with 62 new arrivals.

Alabama (-13.5) over FLORIDA STATE

Mike Norvell’s top-10 transfer class should bring Florida State back to respectability after an all-time embarrassing season, but the Tide are a better bet to make a leap in their second season under Kalen DeBoer, whose last national title game appearance was more recent than Nick Saban’s.

6 Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood throws during an NCAA college football spring game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, April 19, 2025. AP

New Mexico (+34.5) over MICHIGAN

The Wolverines ranked 131st in the nation in passing yards last season, scoring more than 30 points only one time in Sherrone Moore’s first season as head coach. Let’s see Bryce Underwood throw one pass.

Lsu (+3.5) over CLEMSON

It is the battle of top-10 teams, of Tigers, of claims to Death Valley, of two of the best quarterbacks in the nation (Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Lsu’s Garrett Nussmeier). LSU hasn’t won a season opener since Joe Burrow was under center. Clemson lost all three games against SEC teams last season. The points are the play when the gap between opponents is this small.

Utah (-5.5) over UCLA

Kyle Whittingham gives the Utes a chance to win the wide-open Big 12, following an injury-marred season in which Utah was forced to use four starting quarterbacks. Even if Nico Iamaleava plays to his potential, the Bruins’ defense — which lost nine starters from last season — should be in for a long day in the beautiful but unhelpful home field of the Rose Bowl, where UCLA has lost six of its past eight games.

6 Head coach Kyle Whittingham of the Utah Utes speaks with the media during the Big 12 Media Days at The Ford Center at The Star on July 09, 2025 in Frisco, Texas. Getty Images

Virginia Tech (+7.5) over South Carolina

LaNorris Sellers has the Heisman hype, but Hokies dual-threat Kyron Drones could cause just as many problems for the Gamecocks, returning from an injury-riddled season for his third year as the starter. Tech finished one game under .500 last season, but lost its seven games by an average of fewer than seven points.

Notre Dame (-2.5) over MIAMI

It should give you pause that Kirby Smart, perhaps the best coach in college football, was willing to let Carson Beck — a lead candidate to be the No. 1 NFL draft pick one year ago — walk away. Even if Beck bounces back, it’s hard to imagine him approaching the ceiling of Cam Ward, whose brilliance wasn’t enough to carry the Canes to a winning record against teams with a winning record.

Betting on College Football?

Tcu (-3.5) over NORTH CAROLINA

Bill Belichick went 6-10 in his first season with the Browns. He went 5-11 in his first year with the Patriots. He went 4-13 in his final season with the Patriots, dropping his all-time win percentage without Tom Brady to .449 (83-104). Don’t expect a miracle on Day 1, as the Tar Heels — who went 0-7 against the spread in Chapel Hill last season — introduce 70 new players.

Best bets: Baylor, Georgia, TCU.

2014-24 record: 1,392-1,309-31 (.515)

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