World Cup predictions: Brazil vs Norway and Mexico vs England

Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.

This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…

Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.

Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).

Our guest subscriber today is Nathaniel, from the U.S., who supports the USMNT, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Seattle Sounders. Good luck, Nathaniel!

If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.

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What happened on Matchday 24?

Canada’s World Cup adventure was ended by Morocco as they were beaten 3-0 by the African side in what was more of a contest than the final score suggested.

Jesse Marsch’s side shaded the first half without creating any clear-cut opportunities, although in the final minutes the two teams seemed to forget about scoring goals and decided to see who could get the most yellow cards. Five of the eight yellows dished out were between the 40th minute and half-time. Morocco were sluggish and were knocked by the injury to the in-form Ismael Saibari, with the striker forced off after 22 minutes.

Five minutes after the break, the hosts were undone by a clever free kick by Morocco. Achraf Hakimi laid the ball off for Azzedine Ounahi, who fired in an effort from the edge of the area to give his side the lead. The game remained in the balance until the 82nd minute when Ounahi netted his second.

Paraguay produced the shock of the last 32 when they knocked out Germany, but they were unable to replicate it against France — although they gave it a good go, employing some questionable tactics.

The France attack, which has looked unstoppable throughout the tournament, were largely neutralised but unlike against Germany, the underdogs were unable to produce a moment of quality in attack.

Their resistance was eventually broken when Desire Doue was brought down in the box and Kylian Mbappe dispatched the penalty after 70 minutes, scoring his seventh goal of the tournament. An incredible double save from Orlando Gill denied him an eighth in added time.

Arguably the craziest part of this game was that Paraguay, despite their physical approach which threatened to cross the line as tempers flared, received zero yellow cards. Meanwhile, France picked up three during the game.

From a prediction standpoint, we didn’t exactly serve up much excitement ourselves, did we? All five of us picked both Morocco and France — yes, that’s right, even Stanley decided he was going for the favourites for this matchday.

These results did set up a quarter-final tie between France and Morocco, which feels much less predictable than these two matches, so we might get a bit more variety.

How do the predictions work?

It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.

We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.

So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.

Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.

Good luck, and enjoy!

Predictions for Matchday 25

Brazil vs Norway, Round of 16, kick-off 4pm ET, 9pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)

Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Brazil were slow out of the blocks against Japan, and Norway have the attacking talent to punish a similarly sluggish start.

Watch Rating: 5/5. We’re very excited about this one at Predictions HQ — plenty of attacking talent with just enough defensive fragility to bring out the best in them.

The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Brazil seemed to find their stride in the 3-0 win over Scotland in their final group game, but regressed in the first half of their last-16 tie against Japan, where they were outrun and outplayed. Brazil were much improved in the second period, though Japan appeared slightly overawed by the prospect of such a result against the five-time champions, and they must stay closer to that level if they are to overcome an impressive Norway side.

“Norway progressed through the groups at a canter. Their last-32 tie against Ivory Coast was among the most evenly matched of the round, and they battled well against a very competitive opponent, with Haaland netting his fifth of the tournament to win the game and stay in the Golden Boot race.

“While you would be hard-pressed to find a more accomplished trio in defence than Gabriel, Marquinhos and Alisson, Brazil are not as formidable as one might expect, and Haaland will undoubtedly prove another strong test of their solidity. But the same can be said for Norway, who had trouble handling Amad once he was introduced from the bench in the second half against Ivory Coast.”

The Athletic Soccer Experts: BRAZIL WIN

Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: NORWAY WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: BRAZIL WIN

Stanley the dog: BRAZIL WIN

Algo: BRAZIL WIN

Mexico vs England, Round of 16, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)

Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. England are significantly more talented than Mexico, but playing in front of a home crowd at the Mexico City stadium at high altitude is a big advantage for the co-hosts.

Watch Rating: 5/5. The sights of the Azteca. The roar of the crowd. A knockout tie between two proud footballing nations with great tradition is what the World Cup is all about.

The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “The only thing that truly matters in knockout football is making it into the next round, but Thomas Tuchel will undoubtedly be concerned with how England have performed. Aside from a brilliant 20 minutes at the start of the second half in their opening 4-2 win over Croatia, Tuchel’s side have looked disjointed in defence and overreliant on the brilliance of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham in attack.

“On Wednesday, it was all about Kane, the England captain, who netted his 71st and 72nd goals of the season for club and country to save his team from an early elimination, beating the Democratic Republic of Congo 2-1 after going behind early.

“For England to reach the latter stages of the tournament, the rest of Tuchel’s attacking options must step up. Could this be the game where Bukayo Saka, who looked lively in his second-half cameo, arrives at the tournament? Or Anthony Gordon, who has started the last two matches on the bench but assisted both Kane’s goals after entering the pitch on the hour mark.

“But they may face their stiffest challenge yet against a Mexico side in red-hot form. The co-hosts have scored eight goals without response, and have won all four of their matches. Julian Quinones has been a revelation on the left wing, while Raul Jimenez is in good form in front of goal, netting twice from three appearances. The omens are not great for England, as Mexico have lost only two competitive matches at the Azteca in 57 years, winning 70 times, though most of those victories have come against comparatively weaker Central and North American opposition.

“Part of that is the natural advantage of playing at home in front of a passionate crowd, but the other trickier aspect is the altitude. England will not have time to acclimate to the conditions, with the Azteca sitting 2,240m (7,220ft) above sea level.

“Tuchel spoke a lot pre-tournament about developing a game plan to be effective in the heat, but time will tell whether he has something up his sleeve for the… height.”

The Athletic Soccer Experts: ENGLAND WIN

Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: MEXICO WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: ENGLAND WIN

Stanley the dog: MEXICO WIN

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