Key fantasy football questions for Week 1: Will the Chiefs’ deep ball return? Pump the brakes on JCM?

Week 1 is finally here, so we’re getting close to finding answers to many lingering questions. This is arguably the best time of the fantasy season, just before inevitably learning how wrong we were about sure convictions. Here are the biggest questions and storylines to watch for during the opening week of 2025.

Will Kansas City’s deep ball return?

The Chiefs rank 28th in deep passing yards and last in deep passing touchdowns over the past three seasons. Patrick Mahomes’ average intended air yards (6.3) ranked 41 out of 43 qualified quarterbacks last year, and it’s been in steady decline. It’s possible Mahomes was a Tyreek Hill merchant when it comes to the deep ball, as his splits have been dramatic.

Mahomes just missed connecting with Xavier Worthy multiple times last season.

There were clear misses, but he didn’t suddenly lose the ability to throw deep. Mahomes will (eventually) have far better weapons this year and, crucially, a new stud left tackle. Mahomes dealt with the highest quick pressure rate during standard dropbacks last season.

Kansas City’s offseason moves point to the team planning on throwing deep more in 2025, and the Chiefs had three quarterbacks rank among the league leaders in aDOT during the preseason. Mahomes was the QB2 in expected fantasy points from Week 9 on last year, when he totaled 26 touchdowns with just four interceptions over his final 12 games. He reportedly has been extra “locked in” this summer, so a big bounce-back season could be in store.

We’ll get an early glimpse Friday night in Brazil.

How much offense/defense will Travis Hunter play?

Some draftniks would argue Hunter was in a tier of his own when it comes to this year’s wide receiver class, but how much offense will he play? Liam Coen suggested 80% of the snaps last month, which would be more than enough for Hunter to beat his ADP. However, the rookie dealt with an upper-body injury in late August, and Coen more recently said they’re still evaluating what “usage time” will look like for Hunter in Week 1. Hunter was listed as a starting WR and a backup CB on Jacksonville’s first official depth chart.

Hunter figures to see plenty of time out of the slot in a Coen offense with condensed targets, so he’s got real fantasy upside (and is a true cheat in IDP formats). But the more offense, the better.

Pump the brakes on summer’s most hyped rookie?

Wrapping up drafting season. Here are the players who moved up the most in DK Best Ball from May 1 to September 1:

Jacory Croskey Merrit: 143 spots

JK Dobbins: 87

Nick Chubb: 82

Ollie Gordon: 78

Dont’e Thornton: 70

Keenan Allen: 64

Isaac TeSlaa: 55

Emeka…

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 1, 2025

Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s real-time ADP has moved to RB34 in FantasyPros’ ADP, as he’s Washington’s first running back off fantasy draft boards. However, the rookie enters the season labeled fourth on the Commanders’ RB depth chart, behind Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez. Of course, that can be purely semantics this time of year, but JCM is at slight risk of being inactive early, given Rodriguez and McNichols play special teams. For what it’s worth, “Bill” was second in Washington’s RB rotation during Wednesday’s practice.

Croskey-Merritt’s over/under for rushing yards in Week 1 is a lowly 24.5. Ekeler figures to get the receiving work, while Rodriguez is the favorite for carries at the goal line. Croskey-Merritt could pay off down the road, but the hyped rookie will likely require patience.

Will the Cardinals really use Marvin Harrison differently?

Harrison was one of the most effective receivers on throws over the middle of the field last season, but 75% of his (mostly unsuccessful) targets came on the perimeter, which was the league’s second-highest rate. Harrison ranked sixth in air yards but just 37th in target share (22.2%) and 64th in catchable target rate. Despite being among the leaders in end-zone targets, Harrison was still just the WR32 in expected fantasy points per game.

More than one quarter of Harrison’s routes were “go,” the second most (25.9%) in the league. He was one of only five WRs with at least 50 targets, and he saw none of them come from behind the line of scrimmage. Harrison saw 116 targets but zero screens. During pre-snap motion, he was targeted just once all season and saw the fifth-highest tight coverage percentage. He took 72.6% of his snaps out wide with just 27.4% in the slot, leading to fewer “layup” targets.

Trey McBride claims Arizona’s playbook has evolved greatly during the offseason, with the Cardinals using more motion and complex schemes. Kyler Murray also claims he has a much better relationship with Harrison now. It’s good to hear, but Harrison’s fantasy managers must also hope Murray’s limitations aren’t too big a hurdle.

How will the Lions’ offense perform without Ben Johnson?

Jared Goff benefitted from seeing the highest percentage of pass attempts thrown to a receiver with a step or more of separation, seldom being quickly pressured in Johnson’s system. The Lions led the league in YAC per reception last season. Detroit just scored the third-most points per game (33.2) of any offense over the past 10 years, so they can regress plenty and still be among the league leaders; the Lions are projected to be the third-highest scoring team this year using implied team totals.

The loss of longtime center Frank Ragnow will also be felt, but Jameson Williams continues to ascend, and Detroit may have struck gold with rookie Isaac TeSlaa. Coach Dan Campbell is a big believer in play-action, and Detroit’s new OC was reportedly in high demand. But Johnson is considered one of the league’s best play callers, and Goff requires being on-script. The potential impact of Johnson’s departure in Detroit is one of this season’s biggest storylines to follow.

How will the Bears’ offense perform with Ben Johnson?

Caleb Williams had a miserable rookie season, but Chicago won the offseason. The Bears went from arguably a bottom-five offensive line and coaching staff to a top-five in both, highlighted by the addition of Johnson. Chicago also spent early draft picks on TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden while returning WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Williams has no excuses in Year 2, and fantasy managers are banking on significant improvement.

Johnson brings cheat codes that could make it happen, as Chicago is sure to use far more motion in 2025. Moreover, Williams was much better during play-action and under center last season, which are two areas Johnson will emphasize.

The Bears enter 2025 with possibly the widest range of outcomes, and the significance of Johnson’s impact will be revealed in the NFC North.

How will the Jaguars’ offense perform with Liam Coen?

Coen has proven to be another play caller who’s incredibly important to fantasy managers. He’s a quarterback kingmaker who just helped Baker Mayfield have his career-best season thanks to more screens and play-action. Coen produced fantasy’s QB5, the third-most RB team fantasy points and the fourth-most WR fantasy points in Tampa Bay last season. He now has Brian Thomas and Hunter at his disposal. BTJ has No. 1 overall fantasy upside, while Trevor Lawrence could easily finish as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025.

Jacksonville’s running back usage is another important question we hope is answered this week, although that could be a season-long process. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten could be inactive in Week 1, but he remains the RB with the most fantasy upside on the Jaguars’ roster.

How healthy is Matthew Stafford?

Fantasy managers are heavily invested in Puka Nacua (WR8), Davante Adams (WR19), and Kyren Williams (RB12), and it’s safe to say Jimmy Garoppolo and/or Stetson Bennett would be a significant downgrade at QB (although having Sean McVay helps). Stafford appears ready for Week 1, but his current back condition remains something of a mystery.

Stafford is one of the toughest players in the league, but it feels like one big hit could derail Los Angeles’ season. The Rams’ medical team will monitor Stafford’s back throughout 2025. The 37-year-old immediately will get a tough test in Week 1 against Houston, which has one of the league’s best defensive lines; Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson hopes to be ready after recovering from blood clots. Stafford’s status will be worth watching all season.

How ready are De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill?

Achane has been nursing a calf injury since mid-August, while Hill has been dealing with a lingering oblique strain over the past month. The Dolphins still have potential on offense if health cooperates, especially if Hill bounces back after playing through a serious wrist injury throughout 2024. Achane and Hill are expected to be ready for Week 1, but both remained limited in Wednesday’s practice. Hill is arguably the best WR of this generation, and a healthy version can destroy this year’s suppressed ADP.

Achane entered the year with heightened health risk even before the soft tissue injury, but he saw the third-most expected RB fantasy points last season thanks to heavy receiving work that should continue with Jonnu Smith’s departure. I faded both in fantasy drafts this year, and I could feel dumb quicker than usual should Achane and Hill look 100% in Week 1.

Will the Jets employ a true committee at running back?

New York will run heavily in 2025, and Justin Fields’ mobility should help open lanes for the team’s RBs. However, new coach Aaron Glenn has talked up using three running backs ever since getting hired, and it was proven in the preseason.

Braelon Allen is one of the youngest running backs in the league, and the coaching staff appears to love him. Glenn ostensibly views Allen as he did David Montgomery when in Detroit (with Breece Hall in the Jahmyr Gibbs role). However, the jury remains out on whether Allen is any good. Fantasy managers should generally take advanced RB stats like missed tackles forced per attempt with a giant grain of salt, but Hall outperformed Allen in most metrics last year and ranked toward the very bottom of the league during the preseason.

Hall has fallen from a third-round fantasy pick to fifth throughout the summer. He can still pay off in PPR leagues given Fields’ propensity to check down, and Hall remains capable of running away with this backfield. But it’s possible he’ll never be the same after knee surgery, and it’s easy to see Hall being replaced at the goal line at minimum. Isaiah Davis will also be involved.

The recent season-ending loss of guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is a big hit to a Jets offensive line that was considered a strength entering the year, and all signs point to a running back-by-committee in Week 1.

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

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