USA vs Belgium - World Cup last 16: Trump, Balogun, prediction, start time

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Who: USA vs Belgium

What: FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16

Where: Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington, United States

When: Monday at 7pm (00:00 GMT going into Tuesday)

How to follow: We will have all the build-up on Al Jazeera Sport from 20:30 GMT before our live text commentary stream.

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Even before a ball is kicked, the dirty game is under way – and it’s the USA that has the advantage. An unfair one, some might argue.

Less than 48 hours before the USA’s last-16 tie against Belgium, US President Donald Trump personally urged FIFA and its chief, Gianni Infantino, to review a case pertaining to the American team, according to multiple reports.

It was about a red card handed out to their in-form striker Folarin Balogun in the last game. Normally, such a booking leads to at least a one-game suspension, but the USA is alleged to have used its “Trump” card, and just like that, FIFA made the unprecedented decision to suspend Balogun’s automatic red-card ban.

The controversial call to clear Balogun to play in Monday’s decisive World Cup knockout tie left many wondering about the increasing influence of politics in football while it also thrust FIFA’s disciplinary process into the global spotlight, albeit for the wrong reasons.

Whether that decision works against Belgium remains to be seen, but after days of lobbying, the pressure is now firmly on the USA – the last World Cup cohost remaining in the tournament – to step up in Seattle and chase their first quarterfinals berth in more than two decades.

Al Jazeera tells you everything about USA vs Belgium:

How did the USA and Belgium reach the round of 16?

The USA topped Group D with six points, beating Paraguay and Australia before losing to Turkiye. They began their knockout run with a 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32.

Belgium topped Group G with five points, drawing with Egypt and Iran before beating New Zealand. In their last-32 tie, they beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time.

Balogun’s red card suspension raises questions about integrity

Until Sunday, the focus of the game was purely about the football: cohosts USA carrying the weight of rising expectations in a promising tournament and an experienced Belgium side that has been far from convincing.

But the high-stakes clash took a political turn when a personal intervention from Trump prompted a last-minute U-turn from FIFA. Balogun, who was sent off for planting his boot into the ankle of Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemovic, had his one-match ban suspended, opening the door for him to start against Belgium.

“In line with article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code, the implementation of the match suspension is suspended for a probationary period of one year,” ‌FIFA said in a statement.

Whether FIFA had upheld justice or undermined its own rules is up for debate, but what’s more evident is that the decision has become the biggest talking point of the tournament with two weeks to go until the July 19 final.

“I think 99.9 percent of people in football have said this is an unfair punishment, and there’s evidence from the past that makes it possible to suspend a punishment and ⁠to fulfil it later on, so I don’t understand how people can be surprised,” USA coach Mauricio Pochettino told reporters.

“This has happened in the past. It’s not something extraordinary that has only happened ⁠for us. … And we’ve seen many players in this World Cup that were not punished, and I’m happy for this because it would have been unfair.”

Belgium coach Rudi Garcia, understandably, had a different opinion.

“I didn’t know that in the offices of FIFA, the 5th of July was the 1st of April in Europe,” Garcia said through a translator in an April Fool’s Day comparison.

“The Belgian federation does not defend itself; it does not protect the national team. She defends football in general. She defends her integrity, her ethics. I think it’s the first time in the history of the World Cup that there is this kind of decision.”

USA vs Belgium prediction

The Opta supercomputer calculation is as close as it comes to a split decision on the winner: It gave the USA a 37.2 percent likelihood of victory in regulation time while Belgium was at 36.5 percent.

The model estimated a 26.3 percent probability of the game going to extra time and potentially penalties.

The USA has not reached the World Cup quarterfinals since 2002 while Belgium haven’t progressed that far since finishing third in 2018.

Kickoff time and TV schedule

USA: FOX, FOX One, Telemundo App, Telemundo Network, Peacock (5pm Pacific Daylight Time and 8pm Eastern Daylight Time)

Belgium: Auvio, La Une, VRT1, VRT Max, Sporza (2am on Tuesday Central European Summer Time)

United Kingdom: BBC One, BBC iPlayer (1am on Tuesday British Summer Time)

To check the TV listings for your country, head to FIFA’s TV listing schedule here.

Who will the winner face in the quarterfinals?

The winner of the USA vs Belgium match will face either Portugal or Spain in the quarterfinals in Los Angeles on Friday.

Head-to-head

After beating Belgium 3-0 at the 1930 World Cup, the USA have since lost each of their last six meetings.

In their most recent meeting in a friendly in March, Belgium thrashed the USA 5-2.

Team news

The USA’s Cristian Roldan is doubtful with a muscle injury.

No injuries are reported in the Belgium camp.

USA’s predicted lineup

(4-3-3): Freese (goalkeeper); Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson; McKennie, Adams, Tillman; Dest, Balogun, Pulisic

Belgium’s predicted lineup

(4-2-3-1): Courtois (goalkeeper); Castagne, Michele, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; Lukaku

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