NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, upsets, Cinderella teams: Best model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

A season-ending injury to star freshman Caleb Wilson has North Carolina as a 6-seed in the 2026 March Madness bracket. The Tar Heels will open play in the NCAA Tournament 2026 against VCU. VCU has its own merits to stand on, including winning 16 of its last 17, claiming the A-10 Tournament and boasting a 10-man rotation. Also, 11-seeds have won 50% of their matchups versus 6-seeds over the last five NCAA Tournaments.

2026 March Madness upsets are essentially guaranteed, and this could very well be one of them. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Nova's won eight straight Round of 64 games but is making its first tourney appearance since Jay Wright retired. The Wildcats dropped all five of their games versus ranked teams this season, while Utah State didn't face a single ranked squad en route to a 28-6 record. It split its two matchups versus 2025 NCAA tourney teams as the Aggies rely on their interior scoring, ranking in the top 15 in both FG% and 2P%.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Hurricanes are having a magical season in the revenue sports, with the football team making it to the national championship game and the basketball team piling up 25 wins in Jai Lucas' first season at the helm. Meanwhile, Dennis Gates has now guided the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament in three of his four seasons with the program. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and it's a virtual home game for Mizzou with the game being played at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. The roster construction of these teams contrasts: Hawaii gets 94% of its points from upperclassmen, which is second-most in the 2026 March Madness field, while Arkansas has the third-most points from freshmen in the NCAA tourney. The Hogs won the SEC Tournament for the first time since 2000 as they're peaking at the right time and average the fourth-most points (89.9) in the sport. As for Hawaii, its lone NCAA Tournament win, coincidentally, also came as a 13-seed versus Cal in 2016. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

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