Black Caps now eye Sri Lanka as teams look to the heavens at Twenty20 World Cup

The T20 World Cup cricket match between New Zealand and Afghanistan was abandoned without a ball being bowled in Melbourne on Wednesday night.

ANALYSIS: The Black Caps will be relieved to know that fine weather is predicted for their next game.

But if they’re believers in the validity of long-term forecasting, there will be some long faces over the prospect of more troubling rain.

New Zealand’s T20 World Cup game against Afghanistan was abandoned without a ball being bowled in Melbourne on Wednesday night due to rain, meaning the two sides took a point each from the scheduled encounter.

The point was enough to keep NZ at the top of Group One with three points from two matches, while four teams have two points after England were shocked by Ireland in a game decided by the DLS method when the rain began to fall heavily at the MCG in the first of the planned double-header.

But after a dominant victory over hosts and defending champions Australia last weekend, the Black Caps would have expected to take two points from the game versus Afghanistan and will now be wary of any further rain-affected matches as they seek a top-two spot to make the semifinals.

They face Sri Lanka in Sydney on Saturday night (9pm NZT) and the forecast offers just a 5% chance of rain.

But rain and possible thunderstorms are then predicted for Tuesday’s clash against England at the Gabba in Brisbane (9pm NZT).

The Twenty20 part of the World Cup to date could easily stand for 40 days and 40 nights of deluge. Two of the Super 12 games have been abandoned with no play possible while rain brought about an early end to England’s chances of a late surge to get them past Ireland.

It’s understandable then that some teams may be praying for the rain to end – or to fall on their rivals and not them as a number of surprise results coupled with the wet have made predicting the semifinalists harder than staying on as UK Prime Minister.

The Australia and England camps will be watching the weather reports right up til play starts – if it can – in Friday night’s game in Melbourne.

To not get any play in a limited-overs international game at the MCG is a rarity – only two games since the start of the ‘80s have been called off without a ball bowled.

But the rain the Victorian capital has experienced this month – twice its normal average – isn’t poised to abate, with showers forecasted among a 90% chance of rain on Friday. That will also be the case for the first game in another MCG double-header between a buoyant Ireland and bottom-of-the-group Afghanistan.

The Black Caps, courtesy of their win over Australia with a thumping net run rate, still hold their fate in their hands if the weather doesn’t intervene excessively.

But Wednesday’s washout was clearly not in their favour.

Rick Rycroft/AP New Zealand's Finn Allen starred in their opening T20 World Cup win over Australia.

Prior to the expected encounter, cricket data analysts CricViz had New Zealand holding a 63% probability of making the last four, which would have climbed with a victory. Following the no-result, that probability slipped to 55% – yet they’re still the only Group One side more likely than not to make the semis.

Friday’s game between Australia and England has a ‘last chance’ element to it, just six days into the Super 12 section of the tournament.

The defeated side will have two losses and no team made it to the semifinals at last year’s World Cup with more than one defeat – South Africa even missed the last four despite having a 4-1 record in their group.

But the prospect of more rain clouds matters. Even if games aren’t abandoned without any action, a reduced-overs game offers more variance and more likelihood of an upset result – allowing for Ireland being the better side for the majority of their rain-affected win over England.

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