One area where the 49ers can take advantage of the Chiefs

I will spare the Super Bowl rematch stuff and say the San Francisco 49ers will play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday between two good football teams.

Both teams have struggled out of the gate, not entirely playing to the form we are familiar with from both powerhouses. The Chiefs, however, haven’t allowed that slow start to impact the win column, starting 5-0 and coming off of a bye. On the other hand, San Francisco has permitted mistakes to turn wins into losses, entering Sunday at 3-3.

With both teams looking to find their top form as we are full steam ahead to the midway point of the season, these are the numbers to know as the 49ers look to defend home field against Kansas City:

801

The Chiefs offense ranks fourth in the NFL with 801 yards after the catch, per Pro Football Reference.

To make it even more impressive, Kansas City is one of two teams in the top five only to have played five games this season–Detroit being the other–with the remaining four teams (Dallas and Detroit are tied) having already played six.

Rashee Rice carried much of the weight for Kansas City pass catchers with 185 yards after the catch, but he’s out for the season with a knee injury. Behind him is only the fastest receiver in the league, Xavier Worthy, with 108. Then it’s Travis Kelce with 94 and Juju Smith-Schuster at 90, with 81 coming in the Chiefs Week 5 win over the Saints.

Mahomes has been giving those receivers plenty of space to collect those precious yards after catch, pushing the ball downfield less frequently than in previous years. According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes throws passes behind the line of scrimmage at a career-high rate of 27.5 percent of attempts.

With that, he’s thrown his lowest rate of passes short–defined by PFF as 0-9 yards–since 2018. Mahomes is more likely to throw a ball behind the line of scrimmage this season than 10 yards or more downfield, with a career-low 23.8 percent of passes traveling at least 10 yards.

The 49ers have struggled with receivers gaining yardage after the catch, allowing 724 YAC, the sixth-most in the league. San Francisco allowed a season-high 171 yards after the catch in Week 6 against Seattle and has allowed at least 100 YAC in five of its six games this season.

16.0

Kansas City has turned the ball over on 16.0 percent of its drives, the fourth-highest rate in the league.

Now, this number comes with a caveat. Six of the eight turnovers have been Mahomes interceptions. Those six interceptions are tied for the most the quarterback has thrown in the first five games of a season, with the other being the 2021 season. However, it’s been the timing of the interceptions that hasn’t hurt the Chiefs too severely.

While the fourth quarter is where Mahomes has thrown his fewest passes, it’s also the only quarter Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception. He’s thrown three in the first quarter, one in the second, and two in the third but has kept a clean slate in the fourth. And that’s huge for a team that has played in four games decided by seven or fewer points.

The offense has also received some help from the defense on turnovers. The Kansas City defense has allowed only three touchdowns on those eight turnovers, allowing just as many field goals after a giveaway. Not only has Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense not turned the ball over in clutch situations, but the defense doesn’t often allow that mistake to compound into six points.

San Francisco has forced 11 turnovers this season but has only managed four touchdowns on drives after a turnover. If Mahomes is turnover-happy on Sunday, the 49ers offense will need touchdowns over field goals to keep the Chiefs at bay before the fourth quarter.

17.0

The Kansas City defense has allowed 17.0 points per game, the sixth-fewest in the league.

While the Chiefs’ offense has made the headlines, the Kansas City defense has been the key ingredient in their 5-0 start. The offenses the Chiefs have stymied haven’t been too bad either:

Week 1: allowed 20 points to the Ravens–currently the fourth-ranked scoring offense (29.5)

Week 2: allowed 25 points to the Bengals–10th-ranked (26.2)

Week 3: allowed 17 points to the Falcons-11th-ranked (24.8)

Week 4: allowed 10 points to the Chargers–27th-ranked (18.2)

Week 5: allowed 13 points to the Saints–fifth-ranked (27.8)

It’s not a defense that won’t force turnovers–only four so far–but it will keep teams out of the end zone. Kansas City is one of six teams entering Week 6 not to allow double-digit touchdowns, giving up only nine touchdowns through its first five games.

The San Francisco offense has found the end zone 16 times this season, above the league average, but it has particularly struggled in the red zone. Despite the red zone struggles, the 49ers’ 27 points per game rank eighth in the league, comparable to some of the offenses Kansas City has already stopped.

San Francisco will need touchdowns over field goals on Sunday to fend off Mahomes against a defense that’s been particularly tough to cross the goal line against.

Click here to read article