Indian Wells 2026: Five Major Takeaways From “The Fifth Major”

Indian Wells is often called “The Fifth Major” because, like the Majors, it is one of the few tournaments that brings together both the WTA Tour and the ATP Tour. Consequently, like the Majors, it offers a rare opportunity to take stock of both tours and reflect on how the tennis season as a whole is developing.

After Indian Wells 2026, here are five major takeaways from “The Fifth Major”.

Five Major Takeaways From “The Fifth Major”

“Sincaraz” Remain as Hard as Ever to Beat

One of the main reasons that The Big Three remained so dominant for so long, especially at the Slams, was that it was hard enough to beat one of them, let alone all three at the same event. Now, “Sincaraz” (the compound word used to describe the new Huge Two of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner) is proving almost as irresistible an object for any other male player to overcome.

After a fairly dreadful 2025, Daniil Medvedev has undoubtedly made an impressive comeback at the start of 2026, culminating in his defeating Alcaraz in the first semifinal at Indian Wells in straight sets, when he capitalised on a rare off-day for the World No.1 and recent Australian Open winner. However, beating both Alcaraz and Sinner at the same tournament, especially in back-to-back matches, proved too much even for the resurgent Medvedev, as it has for anyone except Novak Djokovic at the ATP Tour Finals at the end of 2023.

Sinner may have only beaten Medvedev 7-6, 7-6 in the Indian Wells 2026 final, but the second-set tiebreak, in which he recovered from 4-0 down to win a truly magnificent seven points in a row, was a reminder that currently he and Alcaraz possess afterburners (or the sheer ability to accelerate play) that no other male tennis player can match.

Sabalenka/Rybakina is the New Big Rivalry in the Women’s Game

For nearly four years, or ever since the shock retirement of the then World No. 1 Ash Barty after she won the 2022 Australian Open, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka were by far the biggest two in women’s tennis, with Swiatek reigning supreme for over two years until Sabalenka overtook her as World No.1 at the end of 2024. Yet they never met in a Grand Slam final, and Swiatek’s long and slow decline in form over the last year to 18 months only gathered pace at Indian Wells 2026, as she was beaten before the semifinals by Elina Svitolina.

By contrast with the Swiatek-Sabalenka rivalry, the Sabalenka-Rybakina rivalry is newer. Yet, it has already produced two fine Grand Slam finals (Sabalenka winning the first in Melbourne in 2023 and Rybakina gaining revenge in Melbourne less than two months ago), and increasingly it looks as if it will surpass Swiatek-Sabalenka for basic intensity.

The closeness of the contest between them was encapsulated by the ending of the 2026 Indian Wells Women’s Singles final, in which Rybakina held a championship point in the third-set tiebreak, Sabalenka survived it with a stunning backhand winner, and then won the next two points to win the match and the tournament. On this form, Swiatek (and perhaps every other female tennis player) will struggle to match Sabalenka and Rybakina for the rest of the season.

For Draper, Beating Djokovic Counts For More Than Most Titles

Jack Draper won Indian Wells last year with a run of results that was so impressive, especially his victory over Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinal, that it seemed he was the man most likely to challenge the Sincaraz duopoly of men’s tennis. Of course, Draper has struggled with injury almost continuously since then, and ultimately, he was unable to retain his Indian Wells title this year.

Nevertheless, the fact that he beat Novak Djokovic in the fourth round in an absolute classic means that he might arguably derive more from losing in the quarterfinal of Indian Wells 2026 (to Daniil Medvedev) than he did in winning the tournament 12 months ago.

That is because any victory over Djokovic, the statistical (at least) GOAT of men’s tennis, still counts for more than most tournament victories. The great Serb is, of course, the only member of the Big Three to have continued to play long enough to face, and occasionally defeat, their successors, Alcaraz and Sinner. But that is precisely why defeating him, especially in such astonishing fashion (Draper served for the match, was broken, but then came back to win the third-set tiebreak), means so very much.

Kartal Achieved Her Biggest Win to Maintain Upward Trend

Sonay Kartal may be another Briton, but her career trajectory has been very different from Jack Draper’s. Whereas Draper (the son of former LTA Chief Executive Roger Draper) has long been earmarked for success, especially since his superb showing against Djokovic in the first round at Wimbledon in 2021, Kartal has had to build her own tennis career much more quietly, steadily, and with much less fanfare. Nevertheless, she almost matched Draper’s feat of beating Novak Djokovic at Indian Wells 2026 by beating Madison Keys in the third round.

Kartal was unable to back up that win over the 2025 Australian Open winner in the next round, when she had to retire against eventual champion Elena Rybakina because of a back injury. Given that she was already losing 6-4, 4-3, it was always unlikely that she would have been able to beat the last two Australian Open women’s champions back to back.

Nevertheless, in defeating Keys so spectacularly, coming back from a disappointing first set to win 2-6 6-2 6-3, she achieved the biggest win of her career. She continued the upward trajectory she has been on since first emerging into the spotlight at Wimbledon 2024.

Empty Seats on a Showcourt Are Never a Good Look for Tennis

Probably the biggest off-court story at Indian Wells 2026 was that the No. 2 court was often largely empty, even during some of the biggest matches it staged, because a change in ticketing arrangements this year meant ground-pass holders could no longer enter the stadium. The result was swathes of empty seats, even as the tournament reached its conclusion.

Empty seats on a showcourt are never a good look for tennis, as we are reminded every year at Roland Garros, when so often the Chatrier and Lenglen stadia are virtually empty until the last course of the last late Parisian lunch has been served. It was a similarly dispiriting vista at Indian Wells this year, and it can only be hoped that Larry Ellison, the tournament owner, learns the lesson in time for 2027.

It certainly provided a stark contrast with the packed courts of the recent South American or “Golden” Swing of the ATP Tour, when South American tennis fans once again put their equivalents in North America and Western Europe to shame.

Click here to read article