Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev final preview: Who will win the Indian Wells title?

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Sinner vs. Medvedev final preview: Two forces collide for Indian Wells glory

Sinner seeks first title of 2026 while Medvedev continues reemergence

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Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will meet for the Indian Wells trophy on Sunday. By ATP Staff

Entering Saturday’s action at the BNP Paribas Open, Carlos Alcaraz appeared the favourite at the season’s first ATP Masters 1000 event. Already a two-time champion at the tournament, the Spaniard was in imperious form, having won his first 16 matches of the season.

But after Daniil Medvedev stunned the World No. 1 on Saturday, it will be Medvedev and World No. 2 Jannik Sinner who clash Sunday for the trophy. Which star will leave the California desert with a critical triumph?

It is a moment of opportunity for both men. Medvedev is guaranteed to return to the Top 10 in the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday for the first time since July last year. But more importantly, he is second in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, the season-to-date standings.

Becoming the first player to defeat Alcaraz and Sinner in the same tournament since Novak Djokovic at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals would be a clear statement that former World No. 1 Medvedev is back at his best. But there will be a significant hurdle standing in his way across the net: Sinner.

With Alcaraz’s dominance of late, it is easy to forget that Sinner won his final three tournaments of 2025 — Vienna, Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals — and lost just one set in 15 matches at those events.

That the Italian losing a five-set semi-final at this year’s Australian Open to Djokovic was a disappointment speaks to the incredibly high standard he has set in recent years. But Sinner has made his first Indian Wells final without dropping a set and after beating Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals he will try to claim his first title of the season.

“It means a lot to me,” said Sinner, who has won the other five hard-court Masters 1000 tournaments. “Third time that I play in [the] semi-finals, so I'm very happy to be for the first time in the final. Now we [will] see what's coming tomorrow.”

Alcaraz owns a comfortable 2,550-point advantage over Sinner in the PIF ATP Live Rankings. But a win against Medvedev could be the start of the Italian reigniting his chase for World No. 1.

The Lexus ATP Head2Head rivalry between Sinner and Medvedev has followed a winding road through 15 matches. Medvedev claimed their first six meetings before Sinner won eight of their next nine to lead 8-7. Sunday’s showdown will be the first time they have played since the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.

Sinner won by a routine 6-3, 6-4 margin that day en route to his maiden trophy in Turin, while Medvedev failed to advance through round-robin play and missed the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025, breaking a six-year streak.

But Medvedev is not playing the same tennis he did when he fell to World No. 18 just six months ago. In winning titles in Brisbane and Dubai this year before raising his game to even greater heights at Indian Wells, Medvedev has blended his typically vexing baseline game with early aggression to prevent opponents from finding their comfort zone.

“It always has to be a balance, because I did try a bit in my career at one point to be, let's call it overaggressive, and it was not good,” Medvedev said. “Right now, I'm in confidence and when I'm in confidence, I always said I feel like I'm an aggressive player, especially on my serve.”

Sinner is one of the most aggressive players on the ATP Tour and in recent years he has managed to take the initiative and blast through Medvedev’s defence. But the 24-year-old is well aware of the danger his fellow ATP No. 1 Club member poses.

“He's back to a very, very high level. Very big serve, I feel like. He's returning very well. Very, very deep,” Sinner said. “Everyone is trying to be slightly more aggressive… Sascha today tried to be more aggressive. He didn't play his best tennis today, I feel like, but everyone is trying to push.

“And I think Daniil has found again a good, good balance on court, winning a title in Dubai, coming here, making again great results.”

With his victory against Alcaraz, Medvedev is now 8-8 against World No. 1s in his career according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. And vitally, the six-time Masters 1000 titlist is feeling good about his game leading into his clash against Sinner, a five-time Masters 1000 winner.

“Maybe I play 10 matches against Carlos, probably I'm going to lose more than I'm going to win,” Medvedev said. “But whenever I go on court, I need to believe in myself, I need to do my best, and try to win as much as I can.”

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