What are BYU's odds to make the Big 12 championship game?

BYU wide receiver Darius Lassiter (5) breaks away from Arizona State defensive back Xavion Alford (2) during the second half of a game Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Tempe, Ariz. Arizona State won 28-23.

The Big 12 is currently living up to its “conference of chaos” reputation.

With just a week left to play in the regular season, eight of the league’s teams are still alive within the conference championship race. There are 19 possible matchups on the table for Dec. 7′s title game at AT&T Stadium. Buckle up, folks.

According to statistician Ben Williams and his very helpful Big 12 standings predictor website, four squads have the best percentage chance to face off for the Big 12 crown:

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Iowa State (51.95% chance)

ASU (48.44%)

BYU (37.87%)

Colorado (29.3%)

Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia all have yet to be officially eliminated from the running, but far too much would have to happen in order for any of them to crash the postseason party. We’ll assume their continued survival comes to an end on Saturday ... unless the Big 12 somehow elects to embrace full anarchy. Such a possibility can never be fully ignored.

Related The Big 12 just released further details on its football championship tiebreaking scenarios

Of course, anything can happen on the football field, but let’s look at some of the data-driven prediction models to see how this weekend’s most critical contests are expected to shake out, along with how those projections will affect the Big 12 championship game matchup.

Remember: In order for BYU to tap into its 37.87% chance to make the trip to Jerry World, the Cougars will need to pair a win against Houston this Saturday with either a Kansas State win over Iowa State or Arizona State loss to Arizona.

ESPN Analytics

ESPN Analytics uses a number of formulas — including Football Power Index (FPI), strength of record and more — to project specific outcomes for each individual college football game.

Here’s what ESPN projects for this weekend.

No. 20 BYU has an 87.3% chance to defeat Houston

to defeat Houston No. 15 Arizona State has a 71.8% chance to defeat Arizona

to defeat Arizona No. 17 Iowa State has a 54.2% chance to defeat Kansas State

If ESPN’s favored teams each win on Saturday, then Arizona State would play Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game.

SP+

According to Yahoo Sports, SP+ is defined as “a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, intended to be predictive and forward-facing.” Invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ “is not a résumé ranking, and is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Connelly uses SP+ to project the win probability and final score for every college football game each week. The SP+ model is 7-4 in correctly predicting BYU games this season, having picked the Cougars to lose to both SMU and Kansas State while beating Kansas and Arizona State.

Here’s what SP+ projects for this weekend.

No. 20 BYU has a 94% chance to defeat Houston

to defeat Houston No. 15 Arizona State has a 66% chance to defeat Arizona

to defeat Arizona Kansas State has a 51% chance to defeat No. 17 Iowa State

If SP+ is correct in which schools it favors, then Arizona State would play BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.

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