Shock late NSW switch predicted; QLD’s big advantage: Matty and Cronk’s Origin I verdict

State of Origin is back, with Game I to be fought out tonight at Sydney’s Accor Stadium.

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As they do before each Origin clash, Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk have run their expert eye over each side, breaking down what is set to be an epic contest.

The pair puts forward two potential under-the-radar gamebreakers while Johns predicts the Blues to make a shock line-up switch before kick off.

Read on for Matty and Cronk’s Origin Game I verdict!

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Cronk: All the attention will go to Nathan and rightly so. He’s playing very well and he feels this is his time to dominate the Origin arena. That’s who I would be looking at.

Matty: I’ve gone with the Hammer (Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow). There’s a magic about him. How many times has he scored really important tries for Queensland.

Cronk: I thought he’d be under pressure defensively in the centres but he’s been rock solid. He comes up with line breaks, broken tackles and tries. He won’t be stuck on the left, I think he’ll pop up somewhere on a set play.

Matty: He’s done a few things down that left side that remind me of Greg Inglis.

MAROONS’ ADVANTAGES

Cronk: The advantage I feel that Queensland have this game is if the game is officiated the same way (it has so far this season) I think No. 9s are becoming almost the most important players on the field and Harry Grant in the last two weeks, has become so important for the Storm. If the Maroons start getting ascendancy, he’s going to go arrow straight and that will bring Munster and Ponga in. I think he is the most influential player on the ground if the game is officiated the same way. I also think Kalyn Ponga (is a big advantage). He’s playing really well. He’s in better form this season than he was in his Dally M year. Something about the way he’s carrying himself now is different.

LEFT-FIELD GAMEBREAKER

Cronk: When I look across the field at New South Wales, there’s a couple there. But for Queensland and outside of their key guys like Hammer, Ponga, Grant, Munster, there’s one thing that Queensland is going to need and that’s confidence. Sam Walker’s confidence is a big part on whether he’ll play well or not. He has Alfie Langer traits, he has confidence to the point he believes he can be the best player. He sits on that precipice of either rising to the occasion and putting his name up in lights or he’s going to be put on the back foot because of the play of Nathan Cleary and then he starts trying to finesse something when it shouldn’t happen.

Matty*: I’ve got Ethan Strange. I think he could leave the series at the end of game three as a genuine star of the game. He’s the sort of guy that when things are tight at the end of games and you need a try, he can deliver.

Cronk*: One thing I admire about him is his physicality for a half. For an Origin game, that’s a very good trait to have for a kid that loves to run the ball.

*Note: These comments were made before Strange was named to replace the injured Mitch Moses at five-eighth.

ANY LATE CHANGES?

Cronk: Lindsay Collins has been named on the bench. He’s that guy that leads from the front and his best stint is probably his first. Rueben Cotter’s always been the guys that gets moved around at some stage. He’s almost the flexible rod in that pack. He’s just the guy that is Billy’s safety blanket. I don’t think too many tactical changes though.

Matty: I look at Stephen Crichton and Tolu Koula. Koula plays his best football at centre, Crichton is a natural footballer and has proven himself at a high level as a winger. It wouldn’t surprise me if there was a switch.

Cronk: Depending on what side of the field both wingers play, it could come down that if Selwyn Cobbo is marked up on Koula, Crichton is moved to the wing on defence to cover Cobbo’s height.

Matty: The other one, and this is a big one, but it wouldn’t surprise me and that’s bringing Dylan Lucas into the 19. He’s currently 20th man. We’re short of an edge back rower NSW. I’ve heard Laurie say ‘well I can put Cam Murray and Victor Radley there’. I don’t like either on an edge. It doesn’t suit their games. The other one is covering the outside backs. I heard Gus talk about the concern of the lack of flexibility and what would happen if James Tedesco gets injured. If Teddy goes down and you got Lucas in the 19, what happens is that Crichton or Koula go to fullback and Lucas into the centres. I’ve seen Lucas play centre and he’s as good a centre as he is a edge back rower.

FINAL VERDICT

Cronk: I’ll always say Queensland but NSW scares me. They do. Their halves, back rowers and there’s something about playing at home. If the Maroons are to win this, they need to start very well and I think they do. I don’t think they can chase down the scoreboard. Queensland to win for me. I’ll say 24-16 and Harry Grant to win man of the match.

Matty: I’ve gone NSW. I do suspect it will be a very high tempo and if it is, that will suit the Blues. Scoreline, 28-18, although games at Accor can be low scoring.

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