Wimbledon tennis tips: Preview and best bets for the men's final on Sunday 12 July

Today's Wimbledon tips: Sunday July 12

1pt Jannik Sinner to beat Alex Zverev 3-0 at 29/20 (10bet)

1pt under 0.5 tie-breaks at 7/4 (bet365, BetMGM, VirginBet)

0.5pt under 8.5 games in first set at 13/2 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev (1600 BST)

After some early shocks and the British ‘Fery-tale’, the 2026 Wimbledon men’s singles has produced a final between the top two seeds.

Were Carlos Alcaraz fit, he would be among the top two and may well have reached his fourth successive final in SW19. In that scenario, a lot of salivating would likely be going on as he prepared to face Sinner.

I get the impression that the actual final we have isn’t whetting the appetite in the same way and one of the reasons for that is fear. Fear that this is going to be a one-sided mis-match.

Sinner has ben utterly dominant in this match-up for the past eight months. Since a tight three-set match in Vienna in October, he has won all six meetings in straight sets, posting some wide-margin scorelines in the process.

The duo last met in the final of the Madrid Masters – Sinner a 6-1 6-2 winner – but since then Zverev has finally got the monkey off his back by winning his first Grand Slam title at the French Open.

That success has filled him with confidence and those who read my outright preview will know I’m not particularly surprised to see him in this final.

As the man himself said after his semi-final win over Arthur Fery: “Once you win a major you know how to do it and you feel like you can do it again. You have this feeling inside of you.”

Still, does a higher confidence level really change Zverev’s problems in this match-up?

Frighteningly, he’s not broken serve in any of those six aforementioned matches. That isn’t just down to confidence, that’s being unable to get a consistent read of a service that Sinner is delivering with greater accuracy than ever before.

Since a first-round struggle against Miomir Kecmanovic, the defending champion hasn’t lost a set and has improved as the tournament has progressed.

He hit new heights in the semi-finals against Novak Djokovic, whom he allowed just one break point. He duly served an ace.

Afterwards, Djokovic touched upon the problem Zverev is going to have here, saying: “(It’s) very difficult to read his serve, incredible weapon has become last couple years since he changed his technique.”

Zverev fans will point to the fact that he’s got the better second-serve points won figure at this tournament – 61% to 54% - but in this match up, it’s a shot Sinner has got stuck into and across their entire head-to-head, which Sinner leads 10-4, Zverev has won only 45% of his second-serve points; Sinner has claimed 53% of his.

This will be their first grasscourt meeting and, in theory, Zverev’s serve should have greater bite on the relatively slick surface, albeit the low-bouncing nature of the grass has lessened as a tournament lacking any rain has progressed.

He’s lost serve only five times in six matches in SW19 this year, never losing it more than once in a match.

However, with Sinner having broken in 39% of Zverev’s service games across that six-match sample, it’s hard to see that record staying intact here.

The reality is that Sinner is the better server – remarkably he’s served more than one ace per game on average at this year’s Wimbledon – the better returner and is also better from the baseline. I find it hard to believe that Zverev is going to be able to turn the tide which has travelled in only one direction for so long.

Another straight-sets win looks worth backing at a best price of 29/20.

In the sub-markets, the layers have sadly wised up to Sinner’s ace ability – in Madrid we got 4/5 about him serving the most aces, now it’s 1/3.

Instead, I like the price about their being no tie-break in the match – a 7/4 chance.

There has been just one in the last seven meetings, including none indoors in Turin where it plays fast.

Sinner took Djokovic down without the need for a tie-break and if he produces that sort of level again, I don’t see Zverev living with him, even with his serve in decent working order.

Finally, for those after a bigger price, how about the 13/2 about there being under 8.5 games in the first set?

This has occurred in four of the pair’s last six matches with Sinner tearing into the Zverev serve.

He’d need to break it twice in the opening set to land this which will be a tougher task on grass than clay, but I do feel there’s some value in those odds.

Let’s aim to finish a good tournament for this column on a high!

Posted at 1210 BST on 11/07/2026

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