The awkward logic behind Nottingham Forest’s next major decision

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After Chelsea did what truly mattered on the final day of the Premier League season, winning and securing a place in next season’s Champions League.

Now, Nottingham Forest are left to wonder about it all, settling for the Conference League to leave a mood of plaintive appreciation at the City Ground. There were a few shots of their scowling owner, Evangelos Marinakis.

The Greek businessman didn’t come onto the pitch in the manner he has made so notorious of late, but Chelsea co-owner Todd Boehly did. The American hedge-fund manager ostentatiously celebrated Champions League qualification with the squad, the club returning to the competition for the first time in three years.

“Very proud,” Enzo Maresca said. “We brought this club where this club has to be, the most important competition.”

The Italian also indulged in a bit of a victory lap, even saying “eff off to all" of the team's critics.

He stopped himself from actually swearing when he remembered he had his young daughter sat in front of him for the press conference.

They have qualified for Europe for the first time since 1995-96, but that is only after a campaign where they spent a long period in the top three, and looked like getting back into the Champions League for the first time since they were European champions in 1980-81.

Nuno did make sure to add that they should also be “proud”. They have significantly overperformed, even if it ended up underwhelming. A little like some of the manager’s football and the season as a whole, there were no fireworks on this final day.

It says much that five clubs were going for the last three Champions League places, and only two of them won. One was Chelsea, who properly dug in after Levi Colwill’s 49th-minute strike. Maresca actually lamented how so much of modern football discussion is results-based, but this was all about just getting over the line.

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open image in gallery Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis in the stands ( Action Images via Reuters )

You could see it in their football on the day, and the focus. Maresca said the only time he was informed of results elsewhere was when Manchester United went 2-0 up against Aston Villa late on, which all but secured Chelsea’s place in the Champions League.

In truth, they’d looked comfortable for most of the day.

Part of that was how they were playing, and a fairly compact performance. Pedro Neto was excellent for the goal to tee up Colwill. Marc Cucurella was solid as ever. Enzo Fernandez continues to evolve into a real leader.

In Maresca’s press conference, where he came across at his most charismatic all season, the manager was quick to point out that Chelsea managed all of this with the Premier League’s youngest-ever squad.

It was actually confirmed before the game that the average age of Chelsea's starting XI in the Premier League this season (24 years and 36 days) is the youngest-ever by a team in a single campaign in the competition. Two things can both be true: Maresca’s line about “where this club has to be” was correct in a few senses. Chelsea are so wealthy that they should still be a club that reach the Champions League, especially when we have the absurdity of allowing five in. In the same way that they won on the day, however, Chelsea also finished in the top four.

Maresca’s grand riposte still might have been a touch far: “The doubt was from outside. All the ones that have the answers or the ones that have the truth, they were saying that we are too young, we are not good enough, they were waiting for Aston Villa to drop points for us to achieve the Champions League. They were saying that we were not able to win on this pitch because we are too young, because we are not experienced. Unfortunately for them, they have all been wrong. All the ones that have the truth and have the answer to everything. So in English, how you say? Eff-off to all of them, because the players deserve that.”

open image in gallery Chelsea’s Levi Colwill celebrates scoring the opening goal ( PA Wire )

The season will look even better if they win the Conference League on Wednesday, but there is another financial footnote there. A fair argument exists that clubs from the big five leagues shouldn’t even be in the competition, and Chelsea also have an immense financial advantage over most of those - like their final opponents Real Betis.

It is about a par performance for the season given financial power, even if it obviously won’t feel like that for the fans - or Maresca or Boehly.

This isn’t to be churlish but it is the framing of modern football that ownerships like this have ensured. Chelsea’s own PSR considerations have been significantly eased.

There was then the other part of the day. Forest just never looked like scoring. The pre-game table ensured they had to be the team to take the initiative here and they just couldn’t really do it.

Even when Chris Wood was given a 94th-minute chance just yards out, you couldn’t quite see it. You could see why Forest’s season has gone as it has, mind, almost split into parts.

When they were on that streak in the first few months, such a chance would have been seized. It was the same with another Wood opportunity in the opening minutes.

open image in gallery Nottingham Forest's Ryan Yates sits dejected ( Richard Sellers/PA Wire )

His streak is over, though, and so is Forest’s.

A European run is possible, which shouldn’t be forgotten. Chelsea may have done too much in modern times for the Conference League but Forest can value it. They can also have a real go at winning it.

As to whether Nuno is the man for that, that is where there is now a bigger discussion, that he was directly asked about after the game.

The Portuguese clearly did well for the moment. He has overachieved.

That doesn’t mean the moment hasn’t passed, though.

The underlying numbers show Forest should have finished 14th. People might scoff at that and point to the table, but these figures are usually borne out over a longer period of time. That is probably what we have seen with Forest’s slide from - a brief - second to seventh.

open image in gallery Nottingham Forest's Nikola Milenkovic looks dejected ( Richard Sellers/PA Wire )

Nuno spoke afterwards as if he was expecting a difficult conversation, and even spoke of a “bad day” like this. You wouldn’t have quite guessed that from the supporters’ hearty applause afterwards, but you would from Marinakis’ facial expression in the final minutes.

And here’s an awkward little thought experiment.

If Marinakis were to change manager, it would likely be presented as harsh, and typical of his type of owner.

But would there not be a logic? Could it not be akin to Bournemouth going for Andoni Iraola or similar. Nuno’s football was revelatory for one moment, in terms of how it was an approach that many clubs had forgotten how to solve. It looks like it has since been rumbled.

He and some Forest fans would of course say the manager now deserves his chance.

Whatever happens, Chelsea deserve their Champions League place.

They, unlike most rivals, did what was required.

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