Who has the edge in the Sabalenka-Pegula semifinal? A case for both players

In a rematch of last year's US Open final, Aryna Sabalenka -- who advanced via walkover on Tuesday -- takes on Jessica Pegula in the semifinals. Which star player has the edge? We break it down.

NEW YORK -- Just a few hours before she was to meet World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in a US Open quarterfinal match, Marketa Vondrousova withdrew with a knee injury.

That sent Sabalenka into a Thursday semifinal against No. 4-seeded Jessica Pegula, who earlier defeated Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-3.

It’s a rematch of last year’s US Open final, won by Sabalenka in straight sets. We make the case for each player left in the draw’s top half.

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 4 Jessica Pegula

Head-to-head: 7-2, Sabalenka, including the last three in a row -- all on North American hard courts.

Advantage, Sabalenka

In the dizzying daily flood of numbers-crunching statistics, this one stands out:

Sabalenka is only the fifth woman in 35 years to reach all four Grand Slam semifinals in a single year. The others are named Graf, Seles, Hingis and Serena, a Who’s Who of tennis greatness.

The catch is that Sabalenka has yet to win one in 2025 -- thanks to three Americans -- a development that suggests she wants to defend her title here very, very badly.

It was Madison Keys who beat her in the Australian Open final, Coco Gauff in the Roland Garros championship match and Amanda Anisimova in a stunning upset in the semifinals of Wimbledon. Going in, with the exception of Roland Garros, Sabalenka went in as the favorite.

She’ll be the favorite here, based on that decisive head-to-head advantage.

After she got word that Vondrousova was granting her the walkover, Sabalenka immediately headed for the practice court. She’ll be exceedingly fresh for Thursday’s match with an extra day off, and after winning her first four matches in straight sets.

You can be sure that Sabalenka, who was stung by those missed opportunities in Melbourne, Paris and London, will throw everything into this one.

Advantage, Pegula

Last year was a watershed year for Pegula: She turned 30, shook up her coaching staff and advanced to her first major final.

And now Pegula has the opportunity to beat the very player that denied her the title. On a court that’s become her favorite in all the world. Pegula, an American in the only American Grand Slam, is now 15-4 in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Thursday’s crowd will be almost completely behind her.

“It would be cool to be able to get revenge, obviously,” Pegula told reporters. “It’s going to be a tough challenge. But at the end of a Slam, you expect that to happen, and you expect people to be playing their best tennis and to be playing the best players, because those are the players that are playing the best.”

After a disappointing summer, Pegula has caught fire at just the right time. And while none of her five victories have come against seeded players, she’s been exceedingly sharp. She converted five of nine break-point opportunities against Krejcikova and was broken only twice herself.

Pegula knows just how close she was, losing that US Open final 7-5, 7-5.

"I was like, 'Wow, I was right there,’" Pegula marveled. "This year I’ve come back with a different perspective, knowing that I wasn’t playing well, to really enjoy the fact that this is pretty cool.

"I would probably have that mentality, instead of maybe being so focused on what I have to do so strongly ... and enjoying the crowd a little bit more, and enjoying the fact that I’m in this position again to possibly be in another final and I’m playing the best player in the world."

Click here to read article