The nine remaining AFL contenders’ biggest ‘ace’... and why experts think they can win the flag

Welcome to ‘big boy month’.

As the AFL calendar gets closer towards finals footy, July presents contenders a key opportunity to get their game in prime condition for a run at the premiership.

After all, the team that goes on to win it all is typically the side in the best form in the back-end of the season building towards September.

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‘Big boy month’ is a term coined by three-time premiership coach Damien Hardwick, as revealed by Tigers champion Jack Riewoldt on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

“As the weather starts to get a little bit cooler and we start to get towards the pointy end and finals, I’m going to steal a quote from my old coach that’s started to become a bit of football vernacular — it’s ‘big boy month’. As we head into July, it’s time to look at the contenders versus each other, the month of July is when the good teams announce themselves for a premiership tilt,” Riewoldt said on the program.

“It is a crucial time for sides to get their club in order for a crack at a flag ... he’d pick out the month and actually come away with what he would like to get from that — now, whether that be results, whether that be statistics, whether that be any sort of facet that he thought that that side needed to grow up.

“We’re going to look at the nine contenders and what their ace is.”

With that, read on for the nine contenders’ biggest ace with insights from the On the Couch team.

Wildcard Round - 'Something to play for' | 01:39

COLLINGWOOD

Rock solid defence

-Ranked No. 1 in points against, No. 1 in score per inside-50 against and No. 1 in chain-to-score against

Jack Riewoldt says: “They’re probably the team everyone is aspiring to beat, sitting two and a half games above the rest of the competition. And it’s their defence. We’ve lauded it all year. That is their ace at the moment ... what they do is they trap sides; trap sides and then prey on turnover. The communication between the Collingwood players on defence — they want sides to take little kicks so that then they can prey on it and force turnover, which gives them great offensive looks ... their ability to rush back and reset again — there is no better team in the competition at getting back and structuring up ... they are the most organised team in the competition.”

Jonathan Brown says: “It’s been a big change from last year, hasn’t it? They lost Nathan Murphy, which upset their balance behind the ball, so they’ve gone to work over the off-season; it’s a major improvement.”

BRISBANE LIONS

Midfield batting deep

-Ranked No. 1 in clearance differential.

Jordan Lewis says: “The one thing that separates Brisbane from the competition is how deep they bat in their midfield. You look across their list and there’s probably 11 or 12 players that go through their midfield, and I think it’s a really good balance. You’ve got inside midfielders like Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. You’ve got the outside in Zac Bailey, Jaspa Fletcher and Callum Ah Chee, but then you’ve also got guys who can do both — play inside and outside — which I think the sides who are the have-nots this year, they don’t have the flexibility, the hybrid-type midfielders. Both Ashcrofts can play inside and outside, Rayner can play inside and outside, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko has played there at times as inside and outside, and Fletcher is more of that outside midfielder. So, I think (that’s) the separation between Brisbane and the other teams playing deep into September.”

Lewis: Ump contact crackdown 'unfair' | 04:01

GEELONG

The dash brothers

-Bailey Smith (No. 1) and Max Holmes (No. 6) ranked in the top six for metres gained

Jonathan Brown says: “I think the ace up their sleeve this year has changed because Bailey Smith has come in (alongside) Max Holmes. That combination has been unbelievable. Metres gained is huge. Max Holmes is the highest-rated player in the competition in the past six weeks, so he’s been fantastic. They’re actually the fastest ball movement team in the competition, which we didn’t acquaint with Geelong a few years ago. They’re going to be hard to come up against, especially down at the Cattery and into September.”

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Firepower

-Ranked No.1 in scoring, No. 1 in score per inside 50 rate and No. 1 in chain-to-score rate

Nathan Buckley says: “We’ve lauded them for their ball use; their back-half ball use. They come off defence to be able to intercept, but these numbers are through the roof. It’s not just Sam Darcy. Aaron Naughton gets a lot of pressure put on him and there’s a lot of judgement around him, but he stood up on the weekend when required. Rhylee West is a player that everyone would have in their front six if they had a choice because of his defensive attributes as much as anything. Then you’ve got the midfielders — Marcus Bontempelli, Ed Richards, Matt Kennedy; they’re kicking goals with aplomb and will, really. Then Lachie McNeil and Laitham Vandermeer, who are getting up the ground and all the way back to put huge pressure on. It’s obvious that you can’t rely on one player too much. Bevo’s never been that type of coach that’s put all his eggs in one basket or one player, (I) think he’s been really good at bringing the depth of his list or the middle part of his list up to be able to play really important roles in the team — and we saw that. Darcy after quarter-time (against Sydney) didn’t have as much impact, Richards was well-held, Bontempelli had a moderate game by his standards, and Tom Liberatore was quiet. But then Joel Freijah stands up, Naughton stands up, and Lachie Bramble who as excellent in the third quarter, and they’ve just got the job done. That’s a great sign for them — still a lot of work to do against the contenders — but going in the right direction.”

Blues star addresses trade whispers | 04:19

GOLD COAST SUNS

Stoppage returns

-Ranked No. 3 in points from clearance differential, No. 3 contested possession differential and No. 3 in clearances differential

Jordan Lewis says: “I zero in on the midfield and I think there’s an argument this is the best two-way running midfield in the AFL — you look at Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Touk Miller. Once they win the ball, I think their decision making to go from offence to defence is the best in the competition at the competition.”

Jack Riewoldt says: “There’s no team that needs to perform more in ‘big boy month’ than the Suns. They haven’t played finals yet since they came into the competition, they do need to grow up in the back part of this season and they’ve been waning a bit. The importance on ‘big boy month’ is critical.”

Lewis says: “You only have to look at their next four weeks (games against Essendon, Collingwood, Adelaide and Brisbane) The ability for the coaching staff to get all players not necessarily focusing on finals but the here and now ... Essendon I think funnily enough of all those matches will be their toughest challenge mentality. You have to be at least against that calibre.”

ADELAIDE CROWS

Contest gains

-Ranked No. 1 in the AFL in contested possessions differential and No. 1 in groundball gets differential

Jonathan Brown says: “They’ve been a big improver all around the field. They’re the best post-contest clearance team. It’s a combination of the groundball work and aerial work — they’re No. 1 in contested marks in the competition — they have six players with 10-plus contested marks led by Riley Thilthorpe (27). Then they can transition the ball in this manner, they can go wit great confidence and keep the ball moving. They’re a real threat going into September because of the mix. They’ve got good big blokes and good ground level players as well.”

Lewis: 'What is Maynard doing!' | 02:21

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

Dropping anchor

-Over the last six rounds ranked No. 3 in intercept to score against, No. 2 in clearance to score against and No. 3 in score per inside 50 against

Nathan Buckley says: “You don’t have to go any further than their defensive numbers — and they jump off the page. We’ve known Justin Longmuir is defensive first and his teams have been really well structured, pretty similar to what we showed with Collingwood. Those numbers have stood up and they’ve won their last six in a row. In that time they’ve conceded 62 points on average. If you’re keeping your opposition to nine or 10 goals a game, you’re going to give yourself a chance to win every time. You can say they’re boring as much as you like, but I’ve seen them play with more joy and excitement on the back of the connection they’re feeling in their defence. It helps when Luke Jackson jumps off the page, too.”

GWS GIANTS

Scoring from defensive half

-Ranked No. 1 in average points from defensive half (41, highest since 2016)

Jack Riewoldt says: “The Orange Tsunami is back and they are the No. 1 team at transitioning the ball at the moment. They are starting to put some good number down there. It is critical Finn Callaghan is healthy in the back part of the season, he’s been crucial to that. I still think they would be burning a bit off the back of (last year’s semi final) and what happened against Brisbane when they had that near 40-point lead then got rolled. They’ve got the crew there and they’ve got the key forwards, but (their scoring from defensive half) is their trump card.”

Jonathan Brown says: “I still think they can win it (the premiership).”

HAWTHORN

Transition game

-Ranked No. 6 in moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 and No. 1 in defensive 50 to inside 50 against

Jonathan Brown says: “They’re actually the best team in the competition in stopping the opposition moving the ball from one end of the ground to the other, which surprised me. I don’t think we’d thought of the Hawks as that. I think that holds them in pretty good stead going into September.”

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