Alabama football vs Tennessee previews and predictions

Happy Friday, everyone. Alabama plays Tennessee tomorrow, and Sylvester Croom spoke to the team about what it means to play for Alabama.

Great stuff. Your previews:

Bama’s defense has sprung some leaks of late, but it is still probably better than either Arkansas’ or Florida’s. The Tide are sixth in three-and-out rate (43.0%) and have allowed the ninth-lowest percentage of plays gaining 20-plus yards (4.3%). If Iamaleava can’t raise his level, Tennessee isn’t going to score much Saturday. An awesome Tennessee defense will therefore have to come up pretty big. OLB Joshua Josephs and end Tyre West have been great this season, and star James Pearce Jr. has finally begun making plays the past couple of weeks too. The Vols rank first nationally in stuff rate (32.3%) and yards per carry before contact (-0.38). The secondary hasn’t been as good as the defensive front, and obviously that could be a problem against Williams and an increasingly healthy receiving corps, but if you can render Bama one-dimensional and pressure quarterback Jalen Milroe, you have a chance to stop the Tide. Iamaleava really is going to have to raise his game, though. Having the least effective QB in the SEC isn’t a great way to make the CFP. Current line: Bama -3 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 1.4

Both teams have been inconsistent this season with highs like Alabama’s win over Georgia and Tennessee’s over Oklahoma paired with shocking lows of road losses. Alabama is the more explosive team and has shown it can win in a track meet-type game, but its defense has left a lot to be desired so far this season. Vanderbilt straight up outplayed Alabama’s defense and got what it needed over and over again on third down. Tennessee should have success running the ball against the Tide, but there remain questions whether Nico Iamaleava can make enough big plays to win a game like this. To this point this season, he hasn’t been able to though it largely hasn’t caught up to Tennessee outside of the Arkansas loss. With what should be a raucous environment, you are best off betting Tennessee to cover in a tight one. Pick: Tennessee +3

If Milroe leaves Neyland Stadium with that white road uniform all stained up, Alabama’s in trouble. The Vols will be without linebacker Keenan Pili, the play caller of the defense who is out for the season after an injury last week. That’s a huge loss for Tennessee but there’s plenty of firepower remaining on a defense that ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (10.7) and second in yards allowed (249.8). The Vols also haven’t faced an offense with as much big-play potential as Alabama. The Tide also haven’t seen a defense as solid top-to-bottom coming off one of its most inconsistent performances of the season against the Gamecocks. Prediction: Tennessee 21, Alabama 20 This one is as much of a coin toss as it comes but Tennessee’s at home, so the Vols get the edge in a rock fight.

Iamaleava’s statistics are concerning: 4.7 YPA when under pressure, three turnover-worthy plays when not blitzed and two interceptions when kept clean. That vulnerability plays right into the Crimson Tide’s hands, allowing them to create disruption with their front four while dropping more defenders into coverage. Although Alabama’s secondary ranks 44th in EPA per pass, they could capitalize on Iamaleava’s mistakes. Expect Alabama to employ a multifaceted strategy in which it generates pressure with its front four, mixing coverages to confuse Iamaleava, even in clean pockets, and focus on run defense (ranked eighth by PFF) to force Tennessee into passing situations. Overall, this matchup heavily favors Alabama’s defense. Unless Iamaleava’s decision-making and poise under pressure dramatically improve, the Tide look well-positioned to dominate this matchup and cover the spread.

The Tennessee secondary and pass defense haven’t exactly been exposed, but there’s a problem. Taylen Green of Arkansas went off for 279 yards, and the combination of Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway cranked up 223 yards for Florida and hit the Vol D for the first multi-touchdown pass game of the year. Alabama might be struggling, but it can still bomb away. The Tennessee offense will perk back up, but Milroe will be fantastic in a a blast of a game that won’t take a back seat to anything in the SEC, including that tussle in Austin. Alabama 34, Tennessee 30

Crawford (Alabama -1.5) — These two played an absolute classic the last time this one happened at Neyland Stadium, but the squads are substantially different this time around. Tennessee’s offense is not as explosive as it was under Hendon Hooker in 2022 and Alabama comes in limping since the win over Georgia. It’s going to be extremely difficult for the loser of this game to get to the College Football Playoff given a second loss and the remaining schedules for each. I don’t trust either team here, so tail with caution. ... Alabama 28, Tennessee 24.

Tennessee 24, Alabama 23: You can’t count on Tennessee’s struggling passing attack to expose the Tide’s vulnerable secondary, but you can count on running back Dylan Sampson and UT’s defense. You also can count on the Tennessee crowd. This isn’t Georgia, where coach Kirby Smart must challenge his fans to turn up the volume. The possibility of beating Florida and Alabama on back-to-back Saturdays should have Tennessee fans roaring as loudly as ever.

The last link is from longtime Vols writer John Adams of the Knoxville News Sentinel.

Everyone is predicting a close one, and it should be. The possibility very much exists that Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has a breakout game at home. Of course, that possibility also existed last week when he managed all of 169 passing yards in an OT game against a pretty bad Florida defense.

This looks like a game that Alabama should win, but they have to stop making the stupid mistakes that have killed them in the past 10 quarters. I simply cannot pick Tennessee to win, so I’m going to give this one to Alabama, 30-20.

Of course that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.

Poll What will be the result of Alabama at Tennessee? Pumpkins smashed, Tide by 10+

Alabama wins a close one, Tide by 1-9

Tennessee wins vote view results 36% Pumpkins smashed, Tide by 10+ (129 votes)

47% Alabama wins a close one, Tide by 1-9 (166 votes)

15% Tennessee wins (55 votes) 350 votes total Vote Now

Blocking James Pearce Jr. will be the key.

Related 3 matchups that could define Alabama football vs Tennessee Saturday

The tall tasks continue Saturday with James Pearce Jr.: the Tennessee defensive end who led the SEC in sacks a year ago, and seems to be heating up in conference play, with three tackles-for-loss and 1.5 sacks in his last two games. Tennessee’s defense has not generated many sacks with 12 in six games. But its a pass rush that has helped the SEC’s fourth-best pass defense. “I think the depth, the size, the speed, the athleticism, they’re excellent and obviously have been very productive,” Sheridan said of Tennessee’s front seven. Pearce will be at the center of Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett’s attention Saturday, and could be a defining factor of quarterback Jalen Milroe’s overall production.

Last, Kennington Smith III has a nice history of the rivalry for you.

2007: Alabama 41, Tennessee 17 Welcome, Coach Saban. Alabama was far from the greatest dynasty in modern history at that point. Still, Saban, John Parker Wilson’s career-high 363 yards and three touchdowns and D.J. Hall’s then-program record 13 catches for 185 yards led Alabama to an upset of No. 20 Tennessee and the most lopsided win in the series since 1986. Alabama had lost 10 of 12 to Tennessee before that Saturday, but then the Tide reeled off 15 consecutive wins, the longest streak in the history of the series. Tennessee spoiled Saban’s perfect record with an epic 52-49 win at Neyland Stadium in 2022, culminating in the goalposts being taken down. Alabama hasn’t been back to Knoxville since, setting the stage for another exciting, high-stakes matchup. History indicates that success follows the victor.

May Kalen’s TSIO debut go just as well.

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.

Roll Tide.

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