Chiefs-Falcons NFL Week 3 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Before Week 2, Arrowhead Pride’s contributors called for the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals 30-17 — a prediction that was 24 points removed from the 26-25 final. While all of us expected a Kansas City win, three-quarters of us thought it would be an easy one — and only one thought it would be close.

To their credit, our readers were a bit less convinced it would be easy sailing for the Chiefs. Just under half thought it would be an easy victory, while one in three thought it would be a close win.

In Week 3, the Chiefs face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for “Sunday Night Football.” According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

While I worry that the Chiefs’ running game will struggle without Isiah Pacheco, I don’t think it’ll matter against the Falcons, who have one of the league’s worst pass rushes. So Kansas City can get into a pass-heavy script without much disruption — and I think the Chiefs will be able to dominate through the air. And while the Falcons’ offense looked better in Week 2, a lot of that was because Kirk Cousins wasn’t being pressured. Kansas City’s defensive line is better — and I think Steve Spagnuolo is going to test how comfortable Cousins looks against pressure; that’s something that hasn’t looked great over two weeks. I feel this matchup sets up very well for the strengths of the Chiefs’ roster.

Chiefs 31, Falcons 20

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

It’s been a while since NFL fans have had reason to take the Falcons seriously. I think we need to start paying some attention. That’s not to say I expect they’ll knock off the defending champions — but I do think they’ll make it more competitive than many might expect. That Atlanta defense has some serious dudes — and quarterback Kirk Cousins has a decent selection of offensive skill players.

Chiefs 27, Falcons 24

Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

Both Kansas City and Atlanta are coming off last-minute victories. While the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts present challenges for the Chiefs’ defense, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should be able to dial up enough pressure to rattle quarterback Kirk Cousins. Offensively, Kansas City will likely go pass-heavy without Isiah Pacheco, allowing Patrick Mahomes to exploit the Atlanta defense. If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, the Falcons may be forced into a passing game — which plays to Kansas City’s advantage.

Chiefs 28, Falcons 13

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

The Chiefs have taken advantage of opening the season with two home games. Their first road test is a tough one that comes at a rough time for this young Kansas City roster. The offense will have a patched-up backfield — and just benched its starting left tackle for rookie mistakes. In a primetime environment, that could lead to some issues — but I believe the Chiefs have a significant advantage when Atlanta has the ball. That trench battle will decide this contest — and I see Kansas City’s front seven suffocating the Falcons’ offense.

Chiefs 23, Falcons 20

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

Time will tell if rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia’s confidence was shaken during Sunday’s ‘Welcome to the NFL’ moment — or more importantly, if head coach Andy Reid’s confidence in him has shifted. Here’s the other big question: can the Chiefs’ wounded backfield piece together enough production to keep Atlanta’s defense from teeing off on the pass rush? I think it can. On the defensive side, there are few questions for which Kansas City lacks answers. While the Falcons’ Drake London is 6 feet 4 (which could be a problem against Kansas City’s 5-foot-11 cornerback Trent McDuffie), I’m still giving No. 22 the edge. And while the defense’s biggest weakness is short to intermediate routes by tight ends, Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts isn’t a traditional tight end; he’s a hybrid. According to data from seven games charted by Next Gen Stats since 2022, 30 of Pitts’ 43 routes were at least 10 yards downfield. This gives Kansas City’s safeties the edge. I think they will shut him down.

Chiefs 27, Falcons 13

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

The Chiefs and the Falcons are the two teams most fortunate to have escaped Week 2 with victories. It is hard to know how seriously to take Atlanta’s offense after they followed seven and a half quarters of inefficiency with what might have been the best drive of quarterback Kirk Cousins’ career. I am also nervous about the Falcons’ safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates, who helped execute some of the best game plans AFC rivals have ever run against Patrick Mahomes. But ultimately, I expect Kansas City’s defense to make adjustments based on the season’s first two weeks — and put up its best showing of the young season. Even with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, I trust Andy Reid to scheme just enough to outscore the Falcons. And now that Chris Jones has lost half a sack from Sunday’s Cincinnati game, I expect the star defensive tackle to make this Sunday night a bad time to be Kirk Cousins.

Chiefs 23, Falcons 17

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

The Falcons are a tough team to categorize. They have lots of top-line talent on both sides of the football. They’ve added a steady veteran quarterback and overhauled their staff to make the most of their talent. But at this point, they’re not at the Chiefs’ level. So this game shouldn’t be a nail-biter — although the team has demonstrated an ability to make any matchup stressful. Still, look for Patrick Mahomes and Xavier Worthy to connect enough to keep the offense balanced while it finds a new mix among their remaining running backs. I could also see defense or special teams getting a big play to help put Kansas City over the top.

Chiefs 24, Falcons 17

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I think I would be a little more worried about the Chiefs falling into an NFC “trap” game sandwiched between two key AFC games if the Falcons had dropped to 0-2 following their Monday night matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. But thanks to Kirk Cousins’ heroic final drive, Atlanta is 1-1 — and Kansas City avoids a case of pure desperation. It doesn't matter if it’s rookie Kingsley Suamataia or Wanya Morris who starts at left tackle. They’ll still have to prevent Grady Jarrett and company from making it a repeat of last week’s game against the Bengals. I like Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice to have big games. Travis Kelce should surface, too. The Chiefs will jump out early, making Atlanta one-dimensional, and Cousins — still working his way to back to 100% from last year’s injury — won’t be able to handle the heat.

Chiefs 31, Falcons 13

What do you think?

Poll Which team wins Chiefs (2-0) at Falcons (1-1)? Chiefs in a blowout (15 or more points)

Chiefs in an easy win (9-14 points)

Chiefs in a close game (1-8 points)

Falcons in a close game

Falcons in an easy win

Falcons in a blowout vote view results 7% Chiefs in a blowout (15 or more points) (33 votes)

36% Chiefs in an easy win (9-14 points) (165 votes)

50% Chiefs in a close game (1-8 points) (228 votes)

4% Falcons in a close game (18 votes)

0% Falcons in an easy win (2 votes)

0% Falcons in a blowout (3 votes) 449 votes total Vote Now

2024 Standings TW LW Staffer W L Pct Err 1 2 Maurice Elston 2 0 1.0000 10.0 2 1 John Dixon 2 0 1.0000 12.0 3 1 Nate Christensen 2 0 1.0000 13.0 3 2 Ron Kopp Jr. 2 0 1.0000 13.0 5 2 Matt Stagner 2 0 1.0000 14.0 6 1 Pete Sweeney 2 0 1.0000 15.0 7 1 Jared Sapp 2 0 1.0000 16.0 8 2 Rocky Magaña 2 0 1.0000 31.0

In Week 2, AP’s Maurice Elston turned in the best prediction. His call for a 31-24 Kansas City win carried 12 points of error. John Dixon and Ron Kopp Jr. both had 18 points of error in their predictions for 31-21 and 27-17 victories.

Click here to read article