How Hawthorn can upset Geelong as the Hawks meet the Cats in 2025 AFL preliminary final

The most famous saying in football might be its most time limited — "we'll take it one week at a time".

It's a phrase that's uttered countless times across the course of a season, surpassing other catchcries like "we gave it 100 per cent" and "it's a game of four quarters".

It is in this week that the saying means most of all. While fans are busy registering for the grand final ballot and making BBQ plans with friends, coaches and clubs will be drilling players not to get ahead of themselves.

Because falling in the preliminary final can be even more painful than losing on the big day — so close to the final reward but with little to show for it.

Geelong knows this pain more than most sides. The Cats have made preliminary finals in eight of the past ten seasons, including this year.

They've managed to win just two of those seven matches, with their season finishing painfully short on five occasions.

Hawthorn is less familiar with this stage in recent years.

It has been a full decade since the Hawks' last flag, and their last visit to the final four.

In that time Hawthorn has rebuilt and retooled, with Jack Gunston the last holdout from that 2015 premiership. After an abbreviated visit to the finals last year, this year's Hawks are determined to leave their mark on the competition.

At this time of year match-ups become incredibly important, alongside how you adjust to the team you are set to beat.

While Geelong have had the upper hand in recent years against the Hawks, the gap appears to be closing fast. This year the Cats won their only match by a heart-stopping seven points.

That sets the stage for a mouth-watering battle between two well-matched opponents.

Both the Hawks and Cats will be looking to lean on their strengths to make it one more week to the grand final.

The rising Hawks

Hawthorn entered the year in the mix for grand final favourites before sliding through the middle of the year.

After two impressive finals efforts the Hawks see themselves with just their closest recent rival in the way of their first grand final visit in a decade.

The Hawks have built their success slowly but surely, recruiting talent from somewhat unlikely places.

Star forward Gunston left Hawthorn for a year in Brisbane before returning. His forward line foil, Mabior Chol, has firmly found his place in the league at his third club.

Their engine room is led by mid-season rookie pick up Jai Newcombe, alongside Irish recruit Conor Nash.

While the Hawks have made the most of their high draft picks, it's how the talent has come together that has spurred them to success.

This year, the strongest parts of their game have happened not through the middle of the ground, but instead inside the arcs.

Hawthorn's marking inside 50 rate sits second in the league with the Hawks notable for the spread of their threats rather than a dominant figure.

Talls and smalls have all found space to work in. Gunston has kicked a career high 70 goals this year, but he's far from playing a lone hand up forward.

It's the wide range of targets that the Hawks deploy up forward that have created extra space for the Hawks veteran, and what makes them such a deadly proposition.

At the other end of the ground, Hawthorn's defence has been equally stout. They've paired their forward marking prowess with stingy defence against deep marks. They concede the fewest points per entry inside 50 amongst the sides left this year.

However, this stingy defence has come at a cost. A strong defence-first approach hasn't always been effectively paired with creating strong threats going the other way.

The balance between defence and counterattack is hard to get right.

Hawthorn has struggled to capitalise once they win the ball back. They are the only finalist who sits below league average in points scored per intercept.

The Hawks have particularly stalled after defensive half intercepts, sitting 12th for scoring per attempt. Without a potent defensive half counterattack, teams can get a bit more aggressive with their attack.

At face value, Geelong — the best side at exploiting short field turnovers — would be the hardest test for a side that sometimes struggles to move the ball up the ground.

In their round six match-up, the Hawks were solid at moving the ball up the ground, but gave up 14 front half scoring shots to sink their hopes.

To have a shot at beating the favourites they have to make sure they can move the ball safely down the ground.

The always present Cats

As the season has developed, expectation of something special has slowly grown down at Kardinia Park. Seemingly every year that passes is followed by speculation of whether this is the year that the Cats finally slide down the ladder for good.

At this rate that fall may never happen.

With a host of talented youngsters like Max Holmes supplementing veterans like Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield, the Cats shape as maybe the team to beat this year. And it's not just the talent that is driving their 2025 success.

Geelong has long been considered the most inventive side in the competition in terms of set up and execution.

Chris Scott and the Cats often leave opposition coaching staff scratching their heads with how they deploy their side.

From defensive match-ups to ball movement, the use of rucks and how they generate spare defenders, the Cats are a tough problem to solve, especially in the finals.

These quirks can often manifest in one way in particular — opposition mistakes and Geelong goals.

Geelong has been the most prolific team scoring from turnovers this season, with the Cats causing problems with turnovers forward of the centre square.

Geelong's group of forwards force opposition sides to pick their second or third choices when trying to move the ball out of defence. The Cats upfield defence also works like a trap in creating repeat inside 50 entries.

When entering the 50 the Cats manage to find their way towards the hotspot more than any other side. With a deep and talented forward line — led by All-Australian captain Jeremy Cameron — the Cats can force the ball into valuable spots close to goal.

The Cats have 50 per cent more set shots per game inside 15m of any other side this year other than Brisbane. For opposition sides it's often about triaging damage rather than stopping the onslaught.

Like all other teams the Cats are beatable, even if they are more complete than most other sides.

The Cats prioritise around the ground flexibility from their ruck division, sometimes cruelling their ability to win first possession from stoppages.

They will often run one ruck at centre bounces before deploying them behind the ball or deep forward, while a second tall will take over the primary ruck work around the ground. This creates an advantageous mismatch in general transition play, but does come at a cost at the initial contest.

In addition, the Cats deploy a large number of prime movers and defensive options at contest, often leaving them at a disadvantage at winning the ball at the coalface.

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Usually these other elements can more than compensate from the loss of raw volume, but at times it can starve them of field position.

Earlier this year against the Hawks they were able to overcome this first possession weakness, winning that battle 43 to 35. However, they struggled to get the ball to the outside, losing the clearance battle. That led them to losing the territory battle across the game.

While Geelong held on for a narrow win, it provided a real pathway for the Hawks to build upon for this week.

There's also sometimes a sense that the Cats can be too reactive to what other sides are doing instead of forging ahead with their own identity.

Rather than having something tried and tested to fall back on when in trouble, they seem to try to solve problems on the fly.

That may not hold up as well in September as it does in May.

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