Our 5/1 fouls flutter for Wednesday night

Wednesday night brings an evening the likes of which many Villains fans will have been dreaming of for decades. Having not tasted Champions League football at Villa Park since 1983, a visit from German giants Bayern Munich would have been the stuff of distant fantasy until Unai Emery took over.

Top tipster Oli Nixon weighs up this titanic tussle and thinks he’s found a bit of value in the Player Foul Involvement market. So, with the Aston Villa v Bayern Munich kick off fast approaching, let’s get stuck in.

Aston Villa v Bayern Munich tips

Youri Tielemans to have 5+ foul involvements

WHEN: Wednesday 2nd of October, 8pm

WHERE: Villa Park, Birmingham

TV: TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate

Tielemans 5+ foul involvements

With fixtures such as this one now a reality under the Holte End lights, what remains to be seen is how well Aston Villa make the most of their moment in the spotlight. The task in front of them couldn’t be more daunting; a side who’ve won this competition six times and who opened their European campaign by scoring nine (yes, NINE) goals last time out.

Villa, meanwhile, had a comfortable victory of their own on matchday one, seeing off Young Boys 3-0 and so will come into this game confident in their capabilities of causing an upset.

We’re not concerned with the result at all though, we’re eyeing up a tasty looking clash in the middle of the park where Belgian midfielder Youri Tielemans should be in the thick of the action.

We’re delving in to the foul involvements market which means we’re looking for Tielemans to either commit fouls or be fouled himself, either will do, we’re not fussy!

The data on this selection looks enticing as Tielemans has so far been involved in at least three fouls in every appearance this season across all competitions, including landing this bet in both of his last two games with six against Ipswich and five against Wolves.

He’s averaging 3.91 foul involvements per 90 minutes and when we look further into where these involvements are coming from, there’s a nice even split between fouls won and fouls committed too.

He’s committed 1.88 fouls per 90 having made at least two in five of his seven games and each of his last four. He’s also drawn 2.03 fouls per 90 and again has drawn two or more in five or seven games but has been felled three times in both of his last two.

The point here is that we’re not reliant on him just committing or drawing fouls alone, his data for both is consistent enough to contribute for our required total of five involvements.

Whilst Youri’s data is eye-catching, it’s only been enough to land this line in two of seven appearances this season. So what makes this a value pick I hear you say?

The answer lies in the data of his opponents in the middle of the park: Aleksandar Pavlovic and the much more household name of Jamal Musiala. The midfield pair have combined for a massive 7.07 foul involvements between them this season per 90 minutes and so it’s safe to say Tielemans is going to be busy.

Musiala is very much the foul magnet of the pair and we will be looking for Youri to bring him down at least a couple of times, in keeping with his average of 2.29 fouls drawn per game.

Pavlovic meanwhile is much more likely to be the one fouling Tielemans having committed 10 offences this season at an average of 1.83 per game.

Foul involvements for opposition central midfielders up against Bayern have been strong this season with seven separate players having had three or more and with Tielemans data this season and the pressure of the occasion, this could well be the perfect setup to see him involved in at least five.

Aston Villa v Bayern betting tips

Youri Tielemans to have 5+ foul involvements

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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