Predicting the 8 Biggest Surprises of the 2026 NFL Season

If there's one thing you can expect in the NFL, it's the unexpected.

The 2025 season was proof of that. If you said at this time a year ago that the Seattle Seahawks would win in dominant fashion in Super Bowl LX over the New England Patriots, you would have been laughed at. Neither team made the postseason in 2024, and the Patriots won all of four games two years ago.

It happens every year. There are teams who wildly exceed expectations and make a deep playoff run, while others fall flat and disappoint (a la the Baltimore Ravens a year ago). There are players who come from nowhere to have career seasons, and stars who take "career season" to the next level and make history.

Every year, the NFL is chock full of surprises, and the 2026 campaign will be no different.

Kyler Murray Will Make the Pro Bowl and Win Comeback Player of the Year

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AP Photo/Jessica Tobias

The 2025 season was the nadir of Kyler Murray's NFL career. In a Week 5 loss to the lowly Tennessee Titans, he injured his foot. He would not play again that season, and after seven years in the desert the Redbirds decided they had seen enough.

They released their $230.5 million quarterback in March, eating a massive dead cap hit in the process.

Now, Arizona is paying Murray $35 million to attempt to resurrect his career in Minnesota after the 28-year-old signed with the Vikings for the veteran minimum.

In order to do so he'll first have to beat out J.J. McCarthy to start in the Twin Cities. Then he'll have to try to recapture the form that saw him win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019 and make the Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2021.

Beating out McCarthy shouldn't be especially difficult—Murray has shown exponentially more upside in the pros than McCarthy has over two injury-marred years.

The tools are there for Murray in Minnesota—the Vikes have a decent offensive line and run game and Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings are one of the better wide receiver trios in the league. Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell has already brought one quarterback back to life in Sam Darnold in 2024.

O'Connell will scheme his offense to Murray's strengths. The team around him is playoff-caliber. And Murray has shown he can play—he has completed over 67 percent of his passes and has twice as many touchdown throws as interceptions.

Add it all up, and it will be time for another Lazarus act, with Murray leading the Vikings to the postseason, making his third Pro Bowl and winning Comeback Player of the Year.

New York Giants Will Win the NFC East

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AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Giants QB Jaxson Dart

It has been a while since the New York Giants won the NFC East. A long while. Big Blue's last division crown came back in their last Super Bowl season in 2011—and that team went just 9-7.

Despite that long drought, new Giants head coach John Harbaugh told reporters that he expects the G-Men to compete for a playoff spot now.

"I think the Giants roster is strong and it's our job to make it stronger," he said. "We are going to compete for the playoffs and for championships. I expect and want to make the playoffs next year."

There are legitimate reasons for Harbaugh to be confident in his new team. In quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Cam Skattebo and wide receiver Malik Nabers, the Giants have a young core of skill-position players. Pro Football Focus ranked New York's offensive line inside the top 10 last year, and that line added the best guard in this year's draft class in Miami's Francis Mauigoa.

Defensively, the Giants added linebackers Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds to a front-seven that already included edge-rushers Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. Even with defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence gone, New York's defense should be significantly improved in 2026.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won three of the last four division titles, but there's seemingly always some kind of drama in the City of Brotherly Love. The Dallas Cowboys were awful defensively a year ago. The Washington Commanders are a team with far more questions than answers in 2026.

As things stand, the Giants have the longest odds in the NFC East to capture the division. But with a proven coach and the team's best roster in some time, that's exactly what New York is going to do, engineering the biggest turnaround in terms of wins in the league in 2026.

Derrick Henry Will Lead the NFL in Rushing in His Age-33 Season

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AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Generally speaking, running backs tend to start to decline at about the age of 28. The wear-and-tear of multiple NFL seasons takes its toll. They lose a little explosiveness and tend to become more injury-prone.

Someone forgot to tell that to Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens.

Henry turned 32 last January, but it didn't show in his performance last year—his 1,595 yards was second in the league behind only James Cook of the Buffalo Bills. He was fourth in the NFL in carries and only Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts had more scores on the ground.

Since joining the Ravens in 2024, Henry leads the league in carries (632), rushing yards (3,516), yards per carry (5.6), rushing touchdowns (32) and yards after contact (2,585), per the NFL's NextGen Stats, as noted by Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic.

New Ravens head coach Jesse Minter told Zrebiec that he has been impressed by Henry since arriving in Baltimore:

"Just to see a guy like that with the experience and success that he's had sort of go about his process of getting better, he's an unbelievable example for everybody else on the team—offense, defense, whatever—of how you operate when you want to learn, and you want to be the best. It's just unbelievable the way he goes about his business. It's really cool to see. Thankful that he's on our side, and we're handing the ball to him."

Henry hasn't matched his 2,000‑yard dominance from 2020 in Tennessee, but that will change in 2026.

Father Time is about to get stiff-armed.

New York Jets Will be the First 0-17 Team in NFL History

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AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Jets WR Garrett Wilson

The New York Jets have been a bad team for a long time. Their last winning season came way back in 2010—also the last time Gang Green made the postseason. This is a team that lost seven of its last eight games in 2025, finished 3-14 and somehow still managed to avoid getting the first pick in this year's draft.

While addressing the media, second-year head coach Aaron Glenn allowed that the Jets have a ways to go before they are contenders, but he believes progress is being made:

"We're still a long ways away. I mean, obviously, when you finish a season 3-14 and you go into this year and you feel good about some of the things that you've done, you want to see how all those things come together. We still have a long way to go, but I do like the direction that we're going right now."

It's not especially easy to see where that progress is, though.

An offense that finished last season 29th in both yards per game and points per game will be led in 2026 by journeyman Geno Smith, who struggled badly in Las Vegas. A defense that allowed more points than any team in the AFC also has significant questions at all three levels.

New York was the last team in the league to secure a win last year, losing seven straight before getting past the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. This year, the Jets won't only be the last team to win a game. They won't—becoming the NFL's first-ever 0-17 team in the process.

Look on the bright side: a winless season would give the Jets their pick of a loaded 2027 quarterback class, without having to spend draft capital to move up.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Will Become the First WR to Catch 150 Passes in a Season

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AP Photo/Ben VanHouten

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a massive way last season—the fourth-year pro led the league with 1,793 receiving yards in 2025 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year honors. Smith Njigba played a big part in Seattle's march to victory in Super Bowl LX and was rewarded handsomely—a four-year, $168.6 million contract extension.

While speaking to reporters, Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald stated the obvious—Smith-Njigba is one of the most important players in the Emerald City.

"He's going to be here and he's a foundational piece, he's a cornerstone of our team," he said. "Just being able to see his growth over the two years that we've been here. I mean, the sky's the limit. This is the beginning. This is another iteration of our football team, and Jax is obviously going to be a huge part of it and where we want to go and where we want to take our team, and I know it's early in his career, but he's already a leader on our team and will be for a long time. So, we're really excited."

Smith-Njigba is the unquestioned No. 1 target in the passing game for a Seahawks team with its eyes set on a repeat. With Kenneth Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet rehabbing an ACL tear, there are significant questions facing the Seattle ground game. If the Seahawks are forced to go to the air more in 2026, most of those targets will be headed Smith Njigba's way.

The result will be the first 150-catch season ever.

And a 2026 season that will make that massive contract look positively reasonable.

Chicago Bears Will Lose 10 Games After Winning the NFC North in 2025

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AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski

The Chicago Bears were one of the NFL's most surprising teams in 2025, coming from nowhere to win 11 games and the NFC North. It was the team's best record and first division title since 2018.

However, in that dream season, everything that could go right did.

And as Frank Schwab noted for Yahoo Sports, many of those factors are likely unsustainable:

"Start with turnover differential. The Bears were +22 last season, five better than any other team and nine better than third place. That's likely unsustainable. There's also the difference between the Bears' 11-6 record and their Pythagorean win total, which calculates what a team's record should have been based on their point differential. The Bears, who had a +26 point differential, had a three-win gap between their adjusted Pythagorean win total and actual win total, according to TheOddsBreakers.com, the most fortunate mark in the NFL. Eight wins in one-score games, including one in the playoffs, helped. Also, the Bears go from the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL (calculated by DVOA) to the sixth toughest this season (calculated by SharpFootball.com, using oddsmakers' win totals)."

It's not just the Bears, either. The team plays in one of the league's harder divisions. The Green Bay Packers were a playoff team last year. The Detroit Lions were the NFC's No. 1 seed two years ago. The Minnesota Vikings won 14 games in 2024 and could be formidable this year if they get capable quarterback play.

Chicago also has concerns on defense, both on the edge and in the secondary. That sets the stage for a significant step back in 2026—and a real chance the Bears tumble from NFC North champs to the bottom of the division.

Myles Garrett Will Record 20-Plus Sacks in Back-to-Back Seasons

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AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Calling the play of edge-rusher Myles Garrett the high point of the 2025 season for the Cleveland Browns is hardly an exaggeration. In fact, it may be an understatement. Garrett broke the NFL's single-season sack record with 23 and won his second Defensive Player of the Year award in three years.

Garrett has been the subject of rampant trade speculation all offseason long--speculation that has ramped back up after new head coach Todd Monken admitted to reporters that he has yet to meet Garrett while downplaying the 30-year-old's absence from voluntary OTAs.

"This is voluntary," Monken said. "We're making a big deal out of this. We really are. It's voluntary. We have other guys besides Myles that aren't here. I wish they were here. They'll be ready. We expect them to be ready, and we'll be fired up when they're here."

Frankly, where this prediction is concerned it doesn't matter if the Browns trade Garrett or not. It's not like he was getting a lot of help or seeing a lot of positive game scripts last year, and he still set the record. Garrett is a force of nature. It doesn't matter if he's double-teamed. Or chipped. Garrett's going to eat. It's like Godzilla vs. the Japanese military.

That's the latest record Garrett will claim in 2026 on the way to his third Defensive Player of the Year award—which would tie Watt and Lawrence Taylor for the most ever.

Joe Burrow Will Win NFL MVP and Lead the Bengals to Super Bowl LXI

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AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Since the Cincinnati Bengals lost to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI, the team has made the playoffs just once and missed the postseason in three straight years. There have been a number of reasons for that slide, from offensive line issues to injuries and a defense that was among the league's worst last year.

That defense underwent a massive overhaul in the offseason, and while talking to reporters quarterback Joe Burrow said he believes this is the best team he has been on since entering the NFL.

"I think this is the most talented roster that we've had since I've been here," Burrow said. "We got guys that work really hard to put themselves in position to perform well, perform to our standard. We haven't necessarily done that for a couple of years, so we brought some guys in who have been there and done that and have their own standard of play and are going to live up to that. We're going to go win a lot of games this year and play great and win a Super Bowl."

Now, this is all contingent on Burrow staying healthy—something he has struggled to do in two of the past three seasons. But with Burrow under center, the Bengals are as lethal offensively as any team in the NFL. If Cincinnati fields even an average defense in 2026, they are the best team in the AFC North on paper.

We'll take it even farther than that—the AFC is loaded this season, but the Bengals have already shown they can run the playoff gauntlet—playing in a Super Bowl and two AFC Championship Games with Burrow.

Burrow will get his better defense this year and make it all the way to SoFi Stadium and Super Bowl LXI, picking up his first MVP award along the way.

Then he'll cap off 2026 with the franchise's first championship.

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