Shocker could spark late change; NSW’s ‘biggest fear’: Keary and Cronk’s Origin verdict

The State of Origin shield goes on the line on Wednesday as the NSW Blues, up 1-0 in the series, face a desperate Queensland Maroons side at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

So desperate that Billy Slater could pull a surprise move involving Reece Walsh?

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Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary aren’t ruling it out as the pair of premiership-winning playmakers went through the key selections that could decide Game 2 on the latest episode of ‘Matty & Cronk’.

WHY THE CLEARY-MOSES COMBINATION HAS CRONK ‘WORRIED’

That, of course, started with the halves where Mitchell Moses appears ready to go after missing the series opener with a hamstring strain.

It means impressive Origin rookie Ethan Strange drops back to the bench, which will present an entirely different dynamic for Queensland with both Moses and Nathan Cleary traditionally being dominant halfbacks in club land.

One school of thought is that Cleary had his best performance in the Origin arena in Game 1 before his role was simplified alongside the inexperienced Strange, where there was no doubting his place in the team and he took control accordingly.

With that in mind, is there a risk that Moses and Cleary could get in each other’s way?

Potentially. But Cronk doesn’t see it that way. Instead, he is “worried”.

“I’m worried that the Moses-Cleary combination is just going to complement one another, and it’s going to be hard to stop,” Cronk said.

Cronk played a similar role during his own representative career alongside Johnathan Thurston, who was more than comfortable controlling the game at North Queensland but shifted to five-eighth for Queensland.

“You can see things unfold before it happens, as opposed to Strange just locking in there and waiting for Nathan,” Cronk said.

“We played left and right. He (Thurston) was left, I was right, but having Slater there to complement both. But once the field position was set and we saw something, I would join first receiver on Johno’s side and let him go second.

“But he would swing and be the second receiver on my side.”

Cronk wasn’t necessarily saying that every halfback will be a perfect complement to each other, but that this specific combination between Cleary and Moses should work because they are both “instinctive” players.

“Let’s say Mitch Moses is sitting on the left-hand side and sees an opportunity to swing right, he’s not going to stay there. He’s actually going to push out to the right-hand side, because he sees it,” Cronk added.

Keary agreed that he sees the Cleary-Mose connection as a strength for the Blues, predicting the Panthers halfback will “run the ball more than he ever has” in Origin.

That was a point Keary landed on after watching back Game 1 from last year’s series, when Cleary partnered Moses, who has one of the best long-range kicking games in the NRL.

“He ran the ball a lot in that first game, because he knows he doesn’t have to be there for the last tackle,” Keary said of Cleary.

“I go back to the Grand Final, where Jarome Luai had to go off when they beat Brisbane. Cogger comes on. Nathan played like a five-eighth for the back-end. He still kicked the ball a lot. I think he’s just as dangerous playing out the back of a seven as he is up on ball.

“I’ve got the feeling Nathan’s as comfortable as he’s ever been having Mitch there. Like we said before, he doesn’t have to worry about controlling the game like he does with an Ethan Strange there. With Ethan there, he has to kind of really pull the strings on every play. He can go out and just be free and express himself.”

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The only real question mark both had over the Moses-Cleary combination actually centred around fullback James Tedesco, who prefers to play around the middle of the ruck.

It is obviously a good thing to have a fullback as heavily involved as Tedesco and few are better at support play than the Roosters veteran.

But Cronk warned Tedesco “needs to complement” Moses and Cleary and “not get in the road”. Keary agreed.

“That’s the one for Teddy,” he said.

“He’s transformed his game into an on-ball fullback. He’s the best in the game at it. As soon as the ruck starts to quicken up, he gets the ball. He attacks the ruck.

“I feel like James needs to step back, because these two are genuine sevens. They want the ball. When it gets quick, I want the ball in Nathan and Mitch’s hands, and I want Teddy playing out the back of them.”

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THE MOMENT SLATER COULD TURN TO WALSH

Moving to Queensland, one of the biggest X-factors is how Slater could use Reece Walsh — if he uses him at all.

It’s not like Walsh is the ideal candidate to come and play through the middle of the field like Strange could for the Blues. He isn’t a big enough body.

That’s part of the reason why Keary wouldn’t be surprised if Walsh spends the entire 80 minutes on the bench.

“I honestly think he’s just there for cover. He’s in that Ezra Mam role,” Keary said.

But if the Maroons are trailing, Keary said he could see Walsh coming on at fullback with Kalyn Ponga shifting to the middle.

“I think if Queensland are chasing points with between 20 and 30 minutes to go, we definitely see him,” he added.

“Billy will keep that in the change up his sleeve like he did in Game 1. Loiero, he won’t use him until really late. I think if they’re winning, Loiero comes on and tries to tackle them to a victory.”

Cronk agreed that Walsh may only figure if the Maroons are chasing points, but said Slater needs to be sure of the moment he makes that decision or otherwise he risks wasting the Broncos fullback.

“You can’t just play that card when you’re going to tackle for the next 10 minutes because it’ll be ineffective,” Cronk said.

“You need to get it when you feel like you’re getting that big chunk of possession.”

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BIG NAWAQANITAWASE QUESTION FOR THE BLUES

Going back to the Blues, injury has once again disrupted their preparations with Casey McLean a late scratching and replaced by debutant Mark Nawaqanitawase.

Nawaqanitawase is expected to slot in on the wing with Tolu Koula moving into the centres, barring a surprise call to promote Strange into the backline.

The bigger decision, however, is which side of the field to play Nawaqanitawase on. Keary and Cronk were split on it.

For Keary, it makes sense to put Nawaqanitawase on the right. He plays there for the Roosters and has his whole career, while he also lined up there alongside Kotoni Staggs on the Ashes tour.

“There’s an argument for the other side, but I know he’s spoken about Kotoni on tour and the relationship that they formed, “ Keary said.

“He spoke about his defensive habits and how he had to adjust on that tour. I’ve had this conversation with him. I think it’s an easy slot in for him, just to go to that right.”

Keary also said it would give the Blues a better aerial threat to match up with Selwyn Cobbo.

Cronk though believes Nawaqanitawase will play on the left because it’s the side Roosters teammate Sam Walker runs around on.

“He knows all the cues as soon as that little kick comes out,” Cronk said.

“It puts Mark in an advantage to understand when that kick is coming. Because that’s the threat of Sam Walker once they get in the red zone. I would play him on the left, because he’s got the footy smarts and awareness to be able to see Sam’s kick.

“That’s reps that you need to know. That gives you a lot of cues when someone’s going to do something. That’s intel that you’re not going to get anywhere else.”

On the flipside of what Keary argued, Cronk also saw the benefit of having Nawaqanitawase’s height advantage against Jojo Fifita.

Keary could see the logic in Cronk’s argument, his only hesitation was that it meant Nawaqanitawase would be lining up on a new-look left edge that featured Koula, Moses and fellow debutant Dylan Lucas.

“I’m coming there as a Queenslander,” Cronk warned.

“You’ve got a debutant on the wing, a one-gamer at centre, Mitch who has just come to the team, barely trained and then a debutant at back row... that’s a very raw edge.”

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CHANGE THAT COULD BE A QUEENSLAND ‘HALFBACK’S DREAM’

Queensland have made a few changes to its starting line-up too, with Reuben Cotter starting at lock in place of Max Plath while Briton Nikora has been promoted to the second row.

Both Cronk and Keary are a fan of the change, believing Cotter will be able to get through a “bucket load of work” as Keary put it while Nikora offers Walker “the best line-running back rower” in the competition to target close to the line.

“He’s going to add a lot of pressure,” added Keary.

“That is going to be a brand new edge for New South Wales. Dylan Lucas is going to have to do a lot of work on Sam. He’ll test out Mitch, who hasn’t played in a month. Nikora will be at him and he is one of the best line-running back rowers we’ve got.”

Add in Kulikefu Finefeuiaki off the bench and it is a “halfback’s dream” according to Cronk, but only if the Maroons use their back rowers correctly.

He said that as soon as one of Koula, Moses, Cleary or Kotoni Staggs “start hesitating”, either when playing to Ponga out the back or the back rowers running through, Queensland needs to pounce.

WHY PONGA HOLD THE ‘KEY’ FOR THE MAROONS

Speaking of Ponga, Cronk said he and Cameron Munster are the “key” for the Maroons.

It seems obvious right, but both he and Keary pinpointed one particular weakness for the Blues that Ponga in particular could exploit.

“That first 20 minutes, they were very dangerous down that left-hand side of the field. You saw Staggs struggle a little bit,” Keary said.

“Ponga looked like he was at his absolute peak when they got field possession. That is the side of the field for me. If Queensland are going to break him down, it’s through Munster and Ponga.”

Cronk said Ponga had Staggs “worried” in Game 1, regardless of whether he was attacking off set pieces, out of structure or near the try-line. But he said it was around the halfway mark of the field where Ponga looked particularly dangerous with the ball in hand.

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“The reason why I say you should attack from this field position is when you attack around midfield, defensively you don’t know whether to come outside in and be aggressive or be passive,” Cronk explained.

“And once Kotoni Staggs and Koula start second-guessing decisions, someone like Kalyn Ponga’s got the speed and the skills to pass and get on the outside.”

“This is where he’s had all his joy for Newcastle this year too,” added Keary.

“Dylan Brown, Sandon Smith, Fletcher Hunt, they’ve been getting him ball out wide. I’d love to see James get the ball like this for New South Wales with Mitch and Nathan, but I think Queensland are going to attack from the very start.

“They’re going to go after this New South Wales team, and it’ll be through Kalyn. He’ll be both sides of the field, he’ll be roaming around, and he’ll be challenging both of these centres.”

WHY QUEENSLAND’S ‘WILDCARD’ IS KEARY’S ‘BIGGEST FEAR’

Of course, there is an added wrinkle to Origin this year with the six-man benches and Keary said he believes it is going to be a “massive part” in determining who wins Wednesday’s game.

Looking at Queensland’s bench, Keary predicted Plath and Lindsay Collins would come on for Tom Flegler and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui in the middle while Finefeuiaki would replace Nikora at some stage, meaning Cotter will likely go the full 80 minutes.

“It’s not a bench that can chase points, unless is injected into it,” Keary added.

But what about Walsh?

He is the “wildcard” according to Cronk, while Keary said Slater is the kind of coach who is brave enough to “take a punt” on a player like Walsh and not only use him but “use him early”.

Slater may have no choice if the Blues jump out to an early lead, and that is Keary’s “biggest fear” because of what it may force Slater to do.

“That New South Wales get to a lead and Billy just goes I’m rolling the dice and Reece comes on,” he added.

“Because I think if you’ve got Kalyn, Reece, Munster and Sam on the field at the same time, it’ll be a nightmare to defend. You’ve got to get the balance right with possession. But I just think if they come on like we’ve seen with the Broncos, it can just go from 0 to 100 really, really quickly.”

Cronk though said he wouldn’t be overly concerned as a Blues fan in that scenario, because he has that much trust in Cleary and Moses to control the game if NSW gets an early lead.

In fact, that combination is his “fear” as a Queensland supporter.

“That’s the thing that scares me for Queensland. The fear that they will start well,” he said.

“They’ll be confident they’re up 1-0. And then Mitch and Cleary get, let’s say, 55-60% possession in the first half. They’re not going to miss their mark.”

With Moses and Cleary expected to see out the full 80 minutes unless there is injury, it begs the question: what is Daley’s plan for the impressive Strange?

Both Cronk and Keary agreed the final Blues interchange will be between Strange and Fonua-Blake.

Like they said with Walsh, they expect Daley to wait until deep in the game before deciding.

“I think he leaves that change. They wait for a HIA, a sin bin or something to happen to make that decision, like they did with Jacob Saifiti,” Keary said.

“Honestly, I don’t know if Addin gets on, depending how the game goes.”

But equally, where would Strange play? He’s best suited in the middle should he play in the forwards but the Blues already have Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray and Victor Radley.

Keary predicted all three could feature on the field at the same time for NSW, which he believes is “very dangerous” for Queensland, but adding another mobile, ball-playing option in Strange?

“I think chasing the game we might see Ethan,” Keary added.

Where exactly remains to be seen.

WHY STARTLING NUMBERS COULD SPARK BIG BLUES CHANGE

Putting the selections aside, the simple reality is the Blues need to start better.

Under Laurie Daley, NSW has been outscored 104 points to 48 in the opening 20 minutes of his 19 games in charge.

More recently, NSW has conceded 20-plus first half points in each of the past three Origins and only scored 12. As a reminder, Queensland led at halftime 26-6 in Game 2 and 20-0 in Game 3 last year while going up 20-6 in Game 1 this year.

So, what’s going on?

“There is a big gap from when the coach speaks to when you run out in the field to the anthem and to the first touch. I think the New South Wales coaching staff would have addressed these starts and they’ll change it slightly,” Cronk said.

“It’s also up to the players to start the game with the right mindset. I don’t think New South Wales miss this start.

I think if you look at the starts, Queensland through Billy get the intensity, the emotion and the key parts to starting the game with a good balance. I think he speaks in a way that you must have them humming.

“Whereas I think Laurie Daley may be focused too much on emotion, may be focused too much on the fundamentals or whatever. He just doesn’t get that balance right.

“Whenever you lose a game or win a game, you review your performance within an inch of your life. I think the New South Wales coaching staff will address their starts and they’ll tweak a couple of things, but they’ll put a lot of responsibility on the players.”

Keary, meanwhile, said the Blues just “cannot afford” to miss another start and said he would not be surprised if NSW finally pulled the trigger on the much-discussed Yeo-Murray swap.

“A lot of people have said Cam Murray should start the game. He may do that, just to stoke a reaction,” Keary added.

SO, HOW DO NSW WIN?

“I think they’ve got to attack the game,” Keary said.

“We see a lot of these Game 2 when a team’s one up in the series and they don’t attack it as much. They have to attack it... even Mitch just getting the ball to Koula early in yardage... move the ball out of yardage.

“I think it’s the halves. They’ve got a start well, which they’ve missed these last three games, but I want to see them go after the game, move the ball, attack, get it to these speed guys.

“Get Staggs early ball, get Koula early ball, get Tedesco out on the edges rather than around the ruck and I think they really, really trouble this Queensland side.”

AND HOW ABOUT QLD?

“I think for Queensland to win, I don’t think they can chase points,” Cronk said.

“I think they need to do exactly what happened in Game 1, get a big chunk of possession, good start, tick that scoreboard over and get the confidence, because then that bench can come on and rotate through defence and get in protecting that lead a little bit.

“I think Queensland have to back themselves in the emotion part, because Billy’s just got this good balance between intensity, emotion and execution. That’s the thing that’s let New South Wales down, so Queensland need to double down on that in the start.

“But I think one of the things for Queensland is get the start right, get that scoreboard ticking over, because they need to put New South Wales on the back foot and the back foot early. If New South Wales get to a lead, I think Queensland are going to struggle to chase them down.”

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