2026 US Open Men’s Singles Roundtable Predictions: Champions, Dark Horses and Early Exits

Ahead of the 2026 US Open, five Last Word on Tennis writers – Ilemona Onekutu, Shane Black, Amanda Bergman, Zain Mustafa, Coby Spratte – made their US Open predictions. Let's dive in.

US Open Men's Singles Roundtable Predictions

Champion – Who will win the US Open?

Ilemona: [10] Arthur Fils (FRA)

I know picking a guy whose best US Open is R2 sounds risky, but Fils just won his first Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, crushing Tiafoe 6-3 1-6 6-0. His serve is a weapon (94.3% holds), paired with athleticism and a heavy forehand. He's 10-0 in deciding sets this year and 8-0 against Americans.

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At 22, he's the youngest French Masters 1000 champion ever—and peaking as the draw opens up. After missing eight months with a stress fracture, he's reached the Doha final, Miami and Madrid semis, and won Barcelona and Cincinnati. In a tournament where Sinner is out, Alcaraz is rusty, and Djokovic is 39, I'm not saying it's likely—but I'm saying it's possible, and that's more than you can say for almost anyone else.

Shane: [1] Alexander Zverev (GER)

All eyes are pointed on Carlos Alcaraz, and rightfully so. I don't believe his team would have him play this event if he wasn't 100 percent healthy (wrist injuries are no joke; look at Dominic Thiem). That said, just because he is healthy does not mean he will have the consistency to win 21 sets.

In steps Alexander Zverev. The 29-year-old German got the Grand Slam monkey off his back at the French Open. He followed that up with a Wimbledon runner-up. Even before his title in Paris, Zverev was a final eight mainstay at majors. With the pressure removed from looking for that elusive maiden slam, paired with his hunt for year-end No. 1, he is going to be very tough to beat in New York.

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Amanda: (8) Ben Shelton (USA)

Picking a champion on the men's side for the US Open is far from simple this year. With Jannik Sinner out and Carlos Alcaraz an unknown, the draw feels wide open. The title is anyone's for the taking, so no prediction feels certain, but this is a golden opportunity for a player like Ben Shelton, who has performed well at hard-court Grand Slams since the start of his career. In Shelton's best Grand Slams, he has run into Sinner, Alcaraz, or an extremely in-form Novak Djokovic, and right now those roadblocks are either weakened or absent. Shelton's run to the title in Montreal a few weeks ago showcased his very best tennis, and if he can bring that level to the US Open then there's no glaring reason he can't go all the way.

Zain: [2] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)

Don't say it… Don't say it… Okay, fine. Yeah, I think Carlos Alcaraz, coming practically off the couch in what will be his first tennis tournament in almost five months, will become the first man since 2008 to defend his US Open title. With no Sinner, it's an open field, and if the Spaniard navigates the first week without any physical setbacks and gets some draw luck, I think he can pull this off.

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Coby: [8] Ben Shelton (USA)

This tournament is almost begging for a first-time winner – the world no. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew, Alexander Zverev, who is ranked second and comes in as the top seed, is just 2-2 since Wimbledon, and the world no. 3 Carlos Alcaraz is competing for the first time since April.

That leaves the door open for Shelton to claim his first career Grand Slam. He won his fourth tournament of the season in Toronto, with five seeded wins en route to the trophy. Look for his monstrous serve and explosive athleticism to get him over the hump.

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Dark Horse – Which (other) player outside the Top 8 seeds will advance furthest?

Ilemona: Hubert Hurkacz (POL)

Hurkacz has climbed back into the top 50 and is always dangerous on hard courts, thanks to that missile serve that regularly reaches the high 130s. He's not far outside the seeds on paper, but at his current ranking he's unseeded – which makes him the nightmare first-round opponent that no seeded player wants to see next to their name. Hurkacz has been to the second week of majors before; he knows what it takes, and his game is perfectly suited to the fast hard courts of Flushing Meadows where that serve becomes even more of a weapon.

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If he finds his rhythm early, a quarterfinal isn't out of the question. The key for Hurkacz has always been his return game – when he's returning well, he's a threat to anyone because his serve gives him such a cushion in his own service games. We've seen flashes of that form this summer, including a run to the quarterfinals in Toronto where he pushed a top-ten player to three tight sets. If he brings that level to New York, watch out. The seeds in his section should be very nervous.

Shane: [16] Brandon Nakashima (USA)

The past few US Opens have produced exciting runs from at least one American man. This year, I think that player will be Brandon Nakashima.

Seemingly fully healthy, the 25-year-old is having the best season of his career. He comes to New York with a career-high ranking of world No. 17. He reached the finals in Montreal and the semis in Cincinnati, taking out five seeded players along the way. Nakashima does not lose to lower-ranked players and has the firepower to take down the top of the sport. Pair that with a favorable draw, and I have him taking down Novak in a Round of 16 blockbuster.

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Amanda: [16] Brandon Nakashima (USA)

Brandon Nakashima has never made a Grand Slam quarterfinal, but before Montreal he had never made a Masters 1000 quarterfinal. He went on to make the final of Montreal and the semifinals of Cincinnati, and there's no reason he can't translate that improvement to the Grand Slam level. Nakashima is flourishing in his new coaching partnership with Wayne Ferreira and has been playing his best tennis in the lead-up to his home Slam. This is the highest Nakashima has ever been seeded at a Grand Slam, and he feels poised for a big run.

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Zain: [21] Tommy Paul (USA)

Is it about time Tommy Paul makes another deep run at a Major? If the American doesn't dip physically, then why not? He has the game to do well on these courts, and with what should be a fairly concentrated tournament in terms of level, Paul could still be playing deep into the second week.

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Coby: [42] Thiago Agustin Tirante (ARG)

Tirante is in the best form of his professional career after beginning the season outside the top 100. He's coming off his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Cincinnati and a fourth-round showing in Toronto. He's proven he can show up in big situations, with wins over #3 Novak Djokovic, #7 Taylor Fritz, and #14 Jakub Mensik. Look for Tirante to make a push to the fourth round.

Early Exit – Which of the Top 8 seeds will suffer the earliest exit?

Ilemona: [2] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)

This is a risky pick—not against Alcaraz's talent, but his match fitness. The defending champion is returning after four months out with a wrist injury, with no competitive matches since April and no Cincinnati. Jumping straight into best-of-five sets is a huge ask.

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His game thrives on explosive movement, precise footwork, and split-second decisions—all of which need match reps. He might get through round one, but a seasoned hard-court player by the third round could expose the rust. History is full of champions who came back too soon.

Shane: [3] Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)

A back strain kept Felix Auger-Aliassime out of his home National Bank Open. He followed that up with a Round of 16 loss in Cincinnati. Since Wimbledon, the 26-year-old Canadian has played just three matches, spending no more than 100 minutes on-court. With a potential second-round matchup against Karen Khachanov looming, this may be a problem. I have FAA bowing out in Round 2, but even if he gets past Khachanov, I do not believe he has the form to make noise deep into the US Open's second week.

Amanda: (6) Alex de Minaur (AUS)

Throughout the season, Alex de Minaur's characteristic consistency has slowly been breaking down, and he is the most vulnerable top seed at the US Open. After a stellar start to the season that saw him reach the Australian Open quarterfinals and win Rotterdam, de Minaur has struggled to replicate that success, losing early in several big tournaments, including some after he had hefty leads. The US Open has historically been de Minaur's best Grand Slam, as he's made three quarterfinals. Still, it's hard to see him finding that level this year as several dangerous lower-seeded and unseeded players have a good chance to beat him.

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Zain: [1] Alexander Zverev

There are some obvious choices here in Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev. But while their early losses would be a seeding upset, given their form and confidence, it wouldn't be entirely shocking. So, my pick for a true upset is none other than the No. 1 seed, Alexander Zverev. The German has had a brutal hard-court summer so far, and we all know he doesn't fare well with pressure. Add those two factors together, and I won't be surprised if the men's field loses its top seed early in the tournament.

Coby: [7] Daniil Medvedev

Maybe Medvedev wasn't so far off when he jokingly teased the idea of starting a pickleball career with Jack Sock in doubles. The Russian has posted a lackluster 1-3 singles record since Wimbledon, with his only win coming against #83 Marco Trungelliti. He's coming off a straight-sets loss to #92 Martin Damm. I expect his poor form and competitive slump to persist at Flushing Meadows.

What are your predictions for the 2026 US Open? Let us know in the comments below!

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