Week 3 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 3 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Falcons at Packers (-5.5): The Packers will be without their two best offensive linemen in RT Zach Bako-Bewele and LG Aaron Banks, as well as starting WR Jayden Reed. Meanwhile, the Falcons will be starting Michael Penix after suffering through the first two games of the season with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. Penix isn't exactly a world-beater, but he's better than Cooper Rush.

The Packers are frauds, and they're also extremely banged up. The Falcons stink too, but this line shouldn't be 5.5 points. Packers to win, Falcons to cover.

(Side note: This could be one of those fun-but-bad Thursday night games.)

Seahawks (-7) at Commanders: There are a lot of backup quarterbacks starting games early on this season, and this will be a matchup between Marcus Mariota and Drew Lock. That's probably a wash, as Mariota has played OK when he has filled in for Jayden Daniels, and Lock has looked good so far for the Seahawks.

But, the Seahawks have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Commanders... don't. And the other difference here is that the Commanders' defense stinks, while the Seahawks' defense looks like it has 14 guys on the field.

Bengals (-3.5) at Steelers: Aaron Rodgers has been washed for years, and now he's mega-washed.

Meanwhile, the Bengals look like they finally have a decent defense to go along with their high-powered offense.

Jets at Lions (-6.5): Clock management incompetence aside, the Jets have been kind of frisky so far this season. But ultimately, the Lions are going to put points on the board, and Geno Smith isn't going to match them.

Titans at Giants (-3): The Titans aren't a good team, but I thought they played their asses off last Sunday against the Eagles. Watching from the press box, I don't know if the fact that the stands were at least 80 percent Eagles fans had something to do with it, but their sideline was going apeshit every time they made a play. They were extremely hungry to win that game. I kinda respect them.

The Giants, on the other hand, looked totally defeated after Jaxson Dart left with his injury. I've seen people on Twitter and other social media outlets suggest that the Giants should trade for this quarterback or that quarterback to save their season. Lol, seriously? This team isn't a contender now, nor were they a contender before Dart got hurt.

The Giants are going to be a rollercoaster ride the rest of the way. One week Jameis Winston will throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs. The next week he'll throw 5 INTs. So, beware that when picking them, or picking against them.

But I like the Titans' intangibles, so I'm going to ride them until they burn me (which of course could be immediately).

Patriots at Jaguars (-3): In my opinion, the Jags remain a sneaky-underrated team, and they're healthy. They are still flying a little under the radar, and their loss in Denver Week 2 is going to keep them out of the spotlight. But they're better than the Patriots, who conversely are overrated and have some key injuries.

Chiefs (-11.5) at Dolphins: This matchup is a pretty obvious survivor pick play, as the Chiefs figured out how to win again, and the Dolphins are tanking.

Texans (-2.5) at Colts: The Texans were a weirdly overhyped team heading into this season, as a lot of people picked them to win the Super Bowl. I'm not sure what those folks saw in C.J. Stroud and their offensive line the last two seasons to have confidence in this team, but whatever 🤷‍♂️.

They do at least look better than the Colts, whose defense has been atrocious the first two weeks of the season.

Panthers (-2.5) at Browns: I think I like this Panthers team. Their offense is legit.

Chargers at Bills (-7): Justin "Not His Fault" Herbert and the Chargers are 0-2.

I'm excited to see what wasn't his fault when they're 0-3.

Vikings (-1.5) at Buccaneers: Kyler Murray is back at quarterback for the Vikings. I don't trust him, or any of the other Vikings' quarterbacks, and generally view them as non-contenders. BUT... they're a good team otherwise, especially on defense, while Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have been careless with the football and bad in the red zone without Mike Evans.

Cardinals at 49ers (-8): The Niners have looked good so far, starting their season 2-0 with an impressive win over the Rams Week 1, and a blowout win over the Dolphins Week 2. They also lead the NFL in point differential at +42. The Cardinals give the Niners trouble sometimes, but the Niners should take care of business.

Raiders at Saints (-3): This line suggests that the Raiders and Saints are evenly matched. Ehhhh, the Raiders are off to an impressive 2-0 start, but I don't see that. The Saints have been legitimately explosive at times in their first two games this season.

Ravens (-3.5) at Cowboys: This game will be played in Rio, and one thing to be mindful of is that there are concerns about the playing surface. If the field is sloppy, I think that favors the Ravens, who employ Derrick Henry and a running quarterback. And if it's not a sloppy field, I like the Ravens anyway, since they simply are a better football team.

Rams (-2.5) at Broncos: The Broncos had a brutally bad Week 1 debut that everyone saw, and then a Week 2 bounce-back game against a really good Jaguars team that most people did not see. The Rams, on the other hand, spanked an overrated Giants team in front of a national audience Monday night after looking very pedestrian Week 1 in Australia against the Niners. My perception is that the public sentiment believes that the Rams' Dream Team season is back on, while the Broncos are just another decent-ish team for them to conquer.

I like the Broncos here. Their offensive line can handle the Rams' pass rush, and the Rams will be playing at altitude on a short week after some already weird travel to start the season.

Eagles (-5) at Bears: The Eagles were gifted a pair of bad opponents in the Commanders and Titans to begin their season, and they'll catch another break Week 3, as budding star QB Caleb Williams almost certainly won't play, and QB2 Tyson Bagent might not either. That leaves QB3 Case Keenum, the 38-year-old journeyman who the Eagles wrecked in the NFC Championship Game preceding their first franchise Super Bowl win.

In our Eagles-Bears preview, we cut up all of Keenum's dropbacks in his last two NFL starts, from way back in 2023. And, spoiler, it's ugly.

The Bears' offense looked like a potential juggernaut Week 1 against the Panthers, when they put 59 points on the board. And then hopes that they might be the next great offense fizzled when they were only able to muster 3 points Week 2 against the Vikings.

Still, the Bears' offense is dangerous. They have a physical offensive line, some promising young receivers, and a pair of running backs in D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai who complement each other well. They also have one of the league's top offensive schemers in Ben Johnson.

But ultimately, it's just not going to be the same without Williams, who is an elite scrambler with a big-time NFL arm who makes a ton of off-schedule plays. He and Keenum really couldn't be any more different, as Keenum is not blessed with great arm talent or running ability, and his game is predicated on getting the ball out quickly. His game more resembles a quarterback like Jared Goff, who, of course, Johnson coached in Detroit.

The Bears' defense is clearly the weaker of their two main units. They don't have a scary pass rush, and their corners have not had a good start to the 2026 season. If Jalen Hurts can make some plays like he has the first two weeks of the season, he should be able to out-score a Bears offense that is going to have to change up what they do to some degree to fit Keenum's limited skill set.

Survivor pick ☠️

Week 1: Chargers ☠️

Week 2: 49ers

Week 3: Chiefs

Technically, I was out Week 1. However, in the survivor pool I'm in you're allowed to buy back in if you get knocked out Week 1. With that in mind — and because "survivor pool" is in the headline and it would be weird for it to just not exist here all season — I'm just going to keep on going.

I did not make a survivor pick here last week, but I took the Niners in my personal life pool, so that's why that appears above. Cool? Cool. 👍

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