Match Preview - West Indies vs Australia, Australia tour of West Indies 2025, 3rd Test

Big picture: Starc's milestone match carries significance for both sides

Although it will be played nearly 15,000km from his home in Sydney, it is fitting in some respects that Mitchell Starc's 100th Test match is a pink-ball game under lights in Jamaica. No bowler has been more prolific with the pink ball, and it seems very likely that Starc will celebrate a second major landmark at Sabina Park, as he is just five wickets away from 400 Test wickets.

If Australia's bowlers continue to share the spoils this week as they have done throughout the series, then there could be further milestones celebrated. Josh Hazlewood needs eight wickets to pass 300, which would make Australia's bowling quartet the first in history to play together with 300 wickets apiece. Nathan Lyon needs just two wickets to pass Glenn McGrath's tally of 563 on Australia's all-time list and move to second behind Shane Warne.

However, in a potential twist, Pat Cummins left the door ajar for a rare all-pace attack. Lyon bowled just one over in Australia's previous day-night Test last December against India. Australia have never played with a pink Dukes before in a Test, but the prospect of a well-grassed Sabina Park pitch will have the quicks licking their chops as West Indies desperately search for the required runs to avoid a series sweep.

The first day-night Test in Jamaica, and just second in the Caribbean, will be a significant occasion but it is also a key moment in the evolution of this new-look West Indies team. Coach Daren Sammy has been left torn between praising the outstanding bowling by his team while lamenting the batting displays. He has urged his batting group to adjust their techniques and temperaments depending on what the situation demands.

But the reality is that the batting challenge might only get harder in Jamaica unless the surface provides some relief during the daylight hours or when the pink Dukes balls soften. Sammy has been encouraged by the effort of his team overall so far in this series to keep pace with Australia, but a win would go a long way to boosting confidence both within the dressing room, and throughout the Caribbean, and reassuring all that the revamped team is on the right path.

Beau Webster celebrates back-to-back fifties AFP/Getty Images

Australia's batting will be under equal pressure, despite the middle-order having done more than enough to secure the Frank Worrell Trophy in the first two Tests. The nature of the World Test Championship means there are no dead rubbers anymore and a third victory will be vital for Australia in a cycle that includes a home Ashes, an away series in South Africa and an away five-Test series in India.

But there are also significant ramifications for the here and now for a top order that has been described as "muddled". Cameron Green's half-century in Grenada aside, it has been a difficult series for the trio against a pacey and skilled West Indies attack on some difficult pitches. While Cummins, coach Andrew McDonald, and batting coach Michael Di Venuto have all been strong in their defence and support of the struggling openers in particular, twin failures this week for Sam Konstas, Usman Khawaja and even Green would spark a four-month public referendum on the make-up of the top three for the Ashes in November.

A substantial score from any or all of them, especially in difficult batting conditions, would calm the debate significantly. But it would take three outstanding performances from all of them to completely quell any questions over their spots given the amount of time that will pass between now and when England arrive in Australia.

Form guide

West Indies LLWLL (last five Tests, most recent first)

Australia WWLWW

Usman Khawaja with his trademark pull through midwicket Associated Press

In the spotlight: John Campbell and Usman Khawaja

John Campbell has arguably looked as comfortable and fluent as any opener in the series but he has only two starts to show for it. He made a breezy 23 in the second innings in Barbados before falling attempting to scoop-sweep Hazlewood. He played an equally poor shot in the first innings in Grenada having done the hard part to reach 40 and lay a decent foundation for West Indies.

His Test record does not reflect his talent, and he does deserve more time than just three Tests on difficult pitches against an all-time attack to settle back into Test cricket after three years. But West Indies would want to see a more balanced approach to his batting in Jamaica, and a conversion of a start, to be assured that he is the right long-term option at the top of the order for this new-look team.

Usman Khawaja has a lot of credits in the bank and there have been reasonably strong backings from Australia's hierarchy that his place for the Ashes is safe. But those credits are dwindling at an alarming rate. He said at the start of the series that his stats speak for themselves. Right now, they are saying he has passed 50 just four times in 33 innings since the 2023 Ashes, with his 232 in Sri Lanka doing a lot of heavy lifting as his lone century. Worse than that, he is averaging 18.93 against pace bowling in his last ten Tests.

That is worse than the axed Marnus Labuschagne and fractionally better than lower-order batters Starc and Cummins. His Jasprit Bumrah problem has spread. The repetitive nature of his dismissals is also of concern. He has been pinned lbw by full inswingers from around the wicket three times in a row in this series while sitting deep in the crease on each occasion. He may bemoan two umpire's calls, but he's had one successful review to overturn a decision in his last 10 tries in Test cricket, having lost six for his team and retained three through umpire's calls. The last time he walked off without reviewing an lbw decision was 2018. He is equal fourth all-time for unsuccessful reviews, with only Steven Smith, Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root above him.

The pitches have been brutal for openers in this series, and he is not the only one struggling. It may not get any easier this week against the pink Dukes. He is the only Australian batter to have faced a pink Dukes previously in England in 2018 and he returned 0 and 19 for Glamorgan at No. 4 against Jofra Archer and Sussex in a game that lasted two days. A solid performance would quieten the questions that are growing louder.

Kraigg Brathwaite made 0 and 7 in his 100th Test AFP/Getty Images

Team news: Will Brathwaite survive?

Roston Chase didn't reveal West Indies' XI, saying discussions had yet to take place after their final training session. Given he did not confirm Kraigg Brathwaite's spot, it appears a chance that he would be dropped. Chase also said there was strong consideration to recalling left-arm spinner Jomel Warrican.

West Indies (possible): 1 Kraigg Brathwaite/Mikyle Louis, 2 John Campbell, 3 Keacy Carty/Kevlon Anderson, 4 Brandon King, 5 Roston Chase (capt), 6 Shai Hope (wk), 7 Justin Greaves, 8 Alzarri Joseph, 9 Shamar Joseph, 10 Anderson Phillip/Jomel Warrican, 11 Jayden Seales

Cummins said Australia wanted another day to consider their options, explaining they were factoring in the night-time session and how the practice pitches have behaved. However, it would appear unlikely there will be any changes to the top order. The workload of the bowlers hasn't been high, so any changes to the attack would be tactical.

Australia (probable): 1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Sam Konstas, 3 Cameron Green, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Beau Webster, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Josh Hazlewood

Pitch and conditions: Even grass coverage, fresh pink Dukes

Starc said it was the best-looking pitch of the series when he surveyed it two days out with a much more even covering of grass than was presented in Barbados or Grenada. The weather looks pretty good for the week, although the odd shower may pass through as it did in Grenada and some forecasts show Monday as considerably wetter. The pink Dukes balls and the new lights at Sabina Park would be the biggest challenge for both sides. Australia's top-order batters reported "swing and nip" during training and, albeit over a limited time span, the balls had retained their hardness. The red Dukes have been a problem throughout the series in terms of retaining their shape, as they have been in England. The new lights reach all the required levels but are potentially not as bright as what the players might be used to. Chase said they were a little lower than he would have liked but neither side has reported any significant issues.

Stats and trivia

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