Packers vs. Bears: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 11

The Green Bay Packers (6-3) are making the short trip south to Chicago to take on the Bears (4-5) coming out of the bye on Sunday at Soldier Field.

The Packers have won 10 straight games in the series and are preparing to play a Bears team that has lost three straight games after a 4-2 start. Can the Packers continue the win streak and keep the Bears reeling?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 11:

First-year vs. first overall

Sunday will be the first of potentially many matchups between Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. The rookie has struggled over the last month and is now dealing with a mid-week playcaller change. Can Hafley find ways of disrupting Williams — an improvisor who is struggling to find completions and running himself into sacks — or will the first overall pick embrace the move away from Shane Waldron and show signs of life in his first taste of the Packers-Bears rivalry? Don’t be surprised if Hafley sends athletic linebackers Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper after Williams in obvious passing situations.

Red zone spotlight

The Packers spent the bye week trying to figure out what has gone wrong in the red zone. Their first test coming out of the bye? The Bears’ No. 1 ranked red zone defense. Chicago has allowed only 10 red-zone touchdowns this season. It will be interesting to see if Jordan Love — who was a full participant at practice this week — can move around better and create a big moment or two in the red zone this week. Extending plays inside the 20 is usually important for creating touchdowns in condensed areas. The Packers must avoid the self-inflicted errors — think penalties and drops — in the red zone on Sunday.

Protecting the football

Much has been made of Jordan Love’s 10 interceptions in seven starts before the bye. It’s a multi-faceted problem, but one that needs to be corrected over the second half of the season. The Bears — with eight interceptions and 16 total takeaways this season — should provide a decent test of Love’s ability to protect the football. And he needs to pass the test for the Packers to get out of Soldier Field with a win — all four of Chicago’s victories this season came when the defense produced at least two takeaways. Playing a clean game has to be one of the keys to victory for LaFleur’s team on Sunday.

Run game vs. Bears front

The Bears will be without massive run-stuffing defensive tackle Andrew Billings, and edge rusher Montez Sweat is dealing with an ankle injury. Teams are averaging 4.8 yards per rush against the Bears defense this season, so expect to see Matt LaFleur throw the kitchen sink at Chicago in the run game on Sunday. While Jordan Love caught fire down the stretch last season, don’t forget how important the run game was to the offense’s hot streak. In the season finale win over the Bears in January, Aaron Jones rushed for 111 yards This could be a heavy Josh Jacobs game on Sunday.

Passing game

The easiest way for the Packers to go from good to great down the stretch is improvement in the passing game. Will Jordan Love be more accurate and more mobile with knee and groin injuries behind him? Will the Packers start catching passes at a higher percentage? Can the play-action passing game take off? Can Dontayvion Wicks rebound and become a reliable weapon again? Will Christian Watson get more involved? Little improvements in all these areas would create the type of big progression that could turn the Packers into a powerhouse. The first chance for on-field progression coming out of the bye is Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 22, Bears 13 (4-5)

Like the past 10 games in this series, I’m going with the Packers to win straight up and cover the spread. Matt LaFleur’s team has the look of a contender and is mostly healthy coming out of the bye, while the Bears are making big, desperate changes to revive what could be a dead first season under a rookie quarterback. This is a game the Packers need to take control of early and finish off late. I won’t be surprised if it’s a grind, considering the strength of the Bears passing and red zone defense, but the Packers should be able to run the football and pressure the rookie quarterback into a few sacks or mistakes. The guess here is the Packers move the ball consistently but have to settle for a few short field goals, keeping the Bears in the game. And it wouldn’t be a Packers-Bears game if a late interception didn’t seal the deal.

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