Explained: Why South Africa-Sri Lanka Is A Virtual World Test Championship Final Playoff

The ongoing Test series between South Africa and Sri Lanka may determine one or more World Test Championship 2023-25 finalist.

At global tournaments, a Sri Lanka-South Africa clash is expected to throw up one memorable moment or the other. Whether the ongoing Test series – it is part of the World Test Championship, after all – throws up something like that is yet to be seen, but one thing is for sure: this one will almost certainly provide a finalist.

Before explaining, here is how the teams stand at this point.

What lies ahead for Sri Lanka and South Africa?

If we go by PCT, Sri Lanka hold a slight advantage over South Africa (55.56 to 54.17), but as hosts here, South Africa are well placed to overcome that deficit.

Sri Lanka are placed third on the WTC points table and South Africa fifth. After the current two-Test contest in South Africa, both sides will have one two-match home series left in this cycle – South Africa against Pakistan, Sri Lanka against Australia.

If they sweep these home series 2-0, Sri Lanka reach 63.64 and South Africa 63.33 – but that is without taking into account the ongoing series. If that ends in 1-1, Sri Lanka will finish on 61.11 and South Africa on 61.11 (at par with India’s current PCT).

But what if the series is not shared? If South Africa win 2-0, they will reach 69.54 and Sri Lanka 53.85. On the other hand, if Sri Lanka win 2-0 (they have done that before), they will get to 69.23 and South Africa to 52.78. In other words, as long as they sweep the other series, a 2-0 win here will be enough for a side to qualify. On the other hand, a 0-2 defeat will as good as guarantee their elimination.

What about 1-0 margins? The home side winning will take South Africa to 63.89 and Sri Lanka to 56.41. On the other hand, if the hosts lose, the corresponding numbers will read 55.56 and 64.10. As before, these will more or less help them qualify or get knocked out. And finally, a 0-0 will put Sri Lanka at 58.97 and South Africa at 58.33.

So what makes this series a playoff?

We have seen the potential final PCTs for Sri Lanka and South Africa. However, India, Australia, and New Zealand are also in contention for a final berth.

Of course, Pakistan are also in the hunt, but the most they can reach is 52.38, and that will involve a 2-0 win in South Africa. It is mathematically possible to qualify from even there... but too many low-probability events need to take place for that.

We have already assumed Sri Lanka would beat Australia 2-0. It is best for the sake of both teams that Australia win their ongoing series against India, and that too by a margin as narrow as possible.

For example, a 3-2 win will help Australia finish on 55.26 and India on 53.51. However, if Australia win 4-1, the PCTs will read 60.53 (Australia) and 48.25 (India). On the other hand, a 3-2 win will enable India to reach 58.77 and Australia 50.00. A draw or two thrown in the mix will help Sri Lanka and South Africa even more. If Australia win 2-1, their PCT will be 53.51 and India’s 51.75. It is not difficult to see that the narrower the margin in an Australian win, the likelier it is for Sri Lanka and/or South Africa to finish above one or both the sides.

It is also important for the two sides to back England, who cannot exceed 48.86, against New Zealand. A 0-3 defeat will take New Zealand to 42.86, 1-2 to 50.00 (the same as a 0-0 draw), 0-1 to 47.62, and 0-2 to 45.24. However, if New Zealand start winning, they will pose a threat to Sri Lanka and South Africa. A 1-0 win will take them to 54.76, 2-0 to 59.52, 2-1 to 57.14, and 3-0 to 64.29.

At least one of the two berths of the WTC final will, thus, be determined by the South Africa-Sri Lanka series.

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