Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 11-28-24 NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (5-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

November 28, 2024 8:20 pm EDT

The Line: Green Bay Packers -3; Over/Under: +49

(Get latest betting odds)

The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers meet Thursday in week 13 NFL action at Lambeau Field. Here’s a Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction. This article will include a Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Pick.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins beat the Raiders and Patriots, and they play the Jets next. The Dolphins have lost 3 of their last 5 road games. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 1,760 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 1,119 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Jonnu Smith has 48 receptions.

The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 116.8 yards per contest, and De’Von Achane leads the way with 562 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 21.5 points and 304.5 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Miami Dolphins with 95 tackles, Calais Campbell has 4 sacks and Jalen Ramsey has 2 interceptions.

Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

The Green Bay Packers beat the Bears and 49ers, and they play the Lions next. The Packers have won 4 of their last 6 home games. Jordan Love is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,244 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have combined for 1,152 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Tucker Kraft has 30 receptions.

The Green Bay Packers ground game is averaging 151.6 yards per contest, and Josh Jacobs leads the way with 944 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Green Bay is allowing 20.3 points and 319.3 yards per game. Quay Walker leads the Green Bay Packers with 79 tackles, Rashan Gary has 4.5 sacks and Xavier McKinney has 7 interceptions.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

The Dolphins have won each of their last four November games as underdogs against NFC opponents.

The Packers have lost each of their last two Thursday games as home favorites.

The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as favorites against AFC opponents.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six November games as underdogs.

The Packers have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven November games as favorites against AFC opponents.

The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games.

The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six games.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts Josh Jacobs has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four November appearances with his team as a home favorite.

Josh Jacobs has recorded 78+ rushing yards in each of his last six November home appearances.

Jordan Love has recorded 258+ passing yards in seven of his last nine home appearances.

Josh Jacobs has recorded 98+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his six previous November appearances with his team as a home favorite.

Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Packers’ last six games as home favorites.

Jordan Love has recorded 22+ completions in eight of his last nine home appearances.

Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in each of his four previous Thursday appearances.

Romeo Doubs has recorded 49+ receiving yards in each of the Packers’ last four games as favorites following a win.

Heading into Week 13, Xavier McKinney ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (7) this season. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts Jonnu Smith has scored the first touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last three games following a win.

Tyreek Hill has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four November appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Dolphins’ last two games.

Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 244+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four Week 13 games.

De’Von Achane has recorded 73+ rushing yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five games following a win.

Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in four of the Dolphins’ last five games.

Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his 35 previous appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.

Jaylen Waddle has recorded 85+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games against NFC North opponents.

Heading into Week 13, De’Von Achane is the only player in the NFL to record 3+ rushing and 3+ receiving TDs this season. Matchup/League Facts Heading into Week 13, the Packers rank 1st in the NFL in fumbles recovered (11) this season.

Heading into Week 13, the Packers rank 1st in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game (2.9) this season.

Heading into Week 13, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in 4th down percentage (27.8%) this season.

Heading into Week 13, the Dolphins have scored four or more touchdowns in two consecutive games – longest streak in the league.

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

The Green Bay Packers are getting the benefit of the doubt because they’re at home, and it’s going to be cold. The Dolphins have a long history of folding like a beach chair once the temperatures drop. However, the Dolphins are playing the better football and there’s always value in getting the hotter team and free points. The Dolphins have also been putting together these long drives that bleed the clock and that can be key to winning in brutal weather. Tagovailoa is playing some of the best ball of his career and the Packers have some key injuries on their defense in Edgerrin Cooper, Isaiah McDuffie and Jaire Alexander.

I’ll grab the free field goal with the Dolphins in a game they could win outright.

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