US Open Quarterfinal Predictions

We have two amazing men’s quarterfinal matches scheduled at the US Open on Tuesday, including possibly the biggest match for an American man in New York in decades (well, second-biggest, as Taylor Fritz made the final in 2024). We are also a least guaranteed one American man in the semifinals, as the other match pits two Americans against each other. Our writers here at LWOT share their thoughts on both matches. Predicting these matches are Nurein Ahmed, Zain Mustafa, and Harsh Bhoot. Who do you think will reach the semis?

US Open Quarterfinal Predictions

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

Nurein:

What a tournament for Alex Michelsen at the US Open. He was barely mentioned as a projected quarterfinalist, but he’s been flawless. That said, Tiafoe is the better athlete, with better movement and more variety in his game. Moreover, Tiafoe has played at this stage of a Grand Slam before, so he knows what it takes to make the semis.

Prediction: Tiafoe in 4

Zain:

Frances Tiafoe showed exactly how dangerous he can be at this tournament in his last match, taking out 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. Now, for a place in the semifinals, he will go up against Alex Michelsen in an all-American clash.

Michelsen does have the firepower to do well on these courts, as he has shown over the past week or so. But Tiafoe has a superior serve and movement advantage in this match. From the baseline as well, Tiafoe can bring more consistency, along with his solid net play. While Michelsen should put up a fight here, Tiafoe has both the momentum and head-to-head on his side in this matchup. Expect him to reach yet another semifinal in New York.

Prediction: Tiafoe in 4

Harsh:

Tiafoe has looked very good. He has carried his form from Cincinnati here and a straight set win over Medvedev is not easy to achieve. Perhaps his next opponent, Michelsen, who is definitely more aggressive than Medvedev, should not be a bigger hurdle overall. Expect Tiafoe to dominate this matchup.

Prediction: Tiafoe in 3

Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton

Nurein:

Carlos Alcaraz has been getting better and better with each round at the US Open. We though Tommy Paul was the litmus test before quarterfinals, but the Spaniard was in complete control. Ben Shelton is dangerous enough to make this genuinely uncomfortable, especially after cruising past Tsitsipas 6-2 6-3 6-4. That said, Alcaraz looks frighteningly sharp and even if this match goes the full distance, I’ll tip him to win it.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 5

Zain:

In arguably the biggest match of his career, Ben Shelton takes on Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the US Open. The American, who had a pretty tough draw, has done quite well so far to manage that, with his best performance coming in the fourth round. While it has been business as usual for Alcaraz, who, in his first tournament back after an almost five-month layoff, is once again looking like the best player in the world.

Much has been made of how Alcaraz being rusty can aid his opponents in this tournament, and while that rust has shown up in his serve, the rest of his game looks as good as ever, more or less. Shelton, with his aggressive play and big serve himself, can stay in this match for stretches, but the Spaniard is just too good of a baseliner and returner not to win this match, given he has already shown that the wrist injury is behind him.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

Harsh:

Clinical displays from both in the Round of 16. Neither player gave their opponent any sniff of the match stretching to beyond straight sets. Shelton has dominated in his customary fashion, but Alcaraz is a bad match up for the home favorite. Alcaraz is adept at finding higher levels of tennis when needed and his injury seems to be holding up well. Expect Alcaraz to fight hard for the win.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

Main Photo Credit: REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

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