Fantasy Football: Defenses to exploit in Week 5

• Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pass and Run Defense: Green Bay faces Los Angeles’ fantasy-friendly pass defense and error-prone run defense.

• Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pass and Run Defense: Baltimore gets to pick on Cincinnati’s injury-weakened defensive line.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

Identifying exploitable defensive units allows for creative re-draft and daily fantasy sports (DFS) roster constructions, particularly in circumstances where a plus matchup is not readily apparent. The article below breaks down three defenses with exploitable pass- and/or run-defense units for fantasy managers to target in both half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats.

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pass and Run Defense

The Los Angeles Rams’ 198 zone coverage, defensive snaps rank seventh-most in the NFL. Among NFL zone coverage units, Los Angeles owns the sixth-highest explosive pass plays allowed rate (16.7%), the third-highest yards allowed per coverage snap average (7.80) and ranks second-worst in both expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.315) and positive EPA allowed rate (58.3%). Among NFL run defenses, Los Angeles ranks sixth-worst in EPA allowed per play (0.029), fifth-worst in average depth of tackle (4.72) and has missed the second-most tackles (30).

PFF Greenline implies Green Bay will score 25.25 points as a 3.0-point road favorite. Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 265 dropbacks against zone coverage from Week 1, 2023 through Week 4, 2024, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love ranks sixth in yards per passing attempt (8.2). Among Green Bay pass catchers with at least nine receiving snaps against zone coverage, wide receivers Bo Melton (33.3%), Dontayvion Wicks (26.2%) and Jayden Reed (21.3%) are the three most efficient target earners. In Weeks 3-4, Green Bay's No. 1 running back Josh Jacobs (50.0% rushing share, 76.7 PFF rushing grade and 0.13 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt) holds only a slight running back rushing share edge over No. 2 running back Emanuel Wilson (43.5% rushing share, 79.1 PFF rushing grade and 0.25 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt), though Wilson grades out as the superior rusher and more efficient tackle breaker.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pass and Run Defense

The Baltimore Ravens face a struggling Cincinnati Bengals defense that is likely to be without its most consequential player, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who suffered a Week 4 neck stinger and was spotted sporting a sling post-game. Among 64 NFL defensive linemen with at least 85 pass-rushing snaps, Hendrickson ranks 11th in both pass-rush win rate (18.3%) and quarterback pressure rate (16.1%), grading out as the 19th-best player (73.6 PFF pass-rush grade). Hendrickson is the only Cincinnati defensive lineman to produce a double-digit rate in either aforementioned category, among qualifying players with at least 10 pass-rushing snaps. All three remaining defensive line starters are either sidelined or playing through multi-week injuries. Among NFL defenses, Cincinnati ranks bottom 12 in catch rate allowed (73.6%), EPA allowed per pass (0.125) and run (0.039) play and average depth of run-defense tackle (4.36).

PFF Greenline implies Baltimore will score 26.5 points as a 2.5-point road favorite in Week 5’s highest-totaled game (50.5 points). Cincinnati’s passing game components make for smart stacking partners, facing a Baltimore pass defense allowing the seventh-most yards per coverage snap (6.80).

Chicago Bears vs. Panthers Pass and Run Defense

The Chicago Bears offense has winnable matchups against the Carolina Panthers’ pass- and run-defense units. Among NFL pass defenses, Carolina ranks in the bottom six in quarterback pressure rate (25.4%), catch rate allowed (75.2%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (6.81). In Week 4, Carolina lost its second stalwart starter for the year, linebacker Shaq Thompson. Thompson’s 73.2 PFF run-defense grade ranks ninth among 36 NFL linebackers with at least 85 run-defense snaps. He ranks top-two in tackles (21), stops (13) and tackles for loss or no gain (six). Carolina’s run defense ranks 19th in average depth of tackle (4.29) and 20th in explosive run plays allowed rate (13.1%). Their 14.3% explosive pass plays allowed rate, 36.1% success rate allowed and 0.058 EPA allowed per play all rank in the bottom 12.

Chicago’s Week 4 usage suggests running backs D’Andre Swift (16 rushing attempts, seven targets, 63.9% touch rate) and Roschon Johnson (seven rushing attempts, zero targets, 38.9% touch rate) have consolidated running back snaps and touches, sidelining the remaining Chicago running backs. Johnson hogged 75.0% of third- and fourth-down running back snaps but Swift took 71.4% of the higher-valued two-minute drill snaps. Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has yet to produce a ceiling game but he has promisingly run the ball five times in three-of-four games. He also managed to produce a 3.6% big-time-throw rate over the last two weeks, ranking 18th among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks in Weeks 3-4. Williams registered a 0.0% rate in Weeks 1-2. PFF Greenline lists Chicago as a 4.0-point home favorite, which bodes positively for Chicago’s rushing volume, though the pass-defense matchup should be outright ignored.

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