AFL 2026, Wildcard Finals Talking Points

Collingwood’s season-ending loss was proof of its glaring need.

Plus the nuance behind Luke Beveridge’s 89-minute gamble, fears for the winning teams and much more as the big issues from the first-ever Wildcard Round are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’sTalking Points!

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GLARING ISSUE THAT COST PIES WILDCARD … AND ONLY $3M FIX WILL SUFFICE

It’s no wonder Collingwood has desperately sought Lachie Neale’s signature.

Zak Butters always seemed like a pipe dream, but Brisbane’s dual Brownlow medallist is expected to join the club on a three-year, $3 million deal to bolster an area of the Pies’ game that needs immediate help in 2027.

Because if Neale played in Friday night’s wildcard final thriller against the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood isn’t lamenting a losing effort on Monday morning.

The Dogs eviscerated the Pies at the coalface, and particularly in the middle of the ground. It allowed Luke Beveridge’s charges the territory ascendancy from start to finish at the MCG.

Collingwood lost centre clearances 9-19, and the overall clearance count 35-54. It was -19 for inside-50s. It’ll surprise nobody to hear that’s not a winning formula.

The Bulldogs kicked 5.3 from their 19 centre clearances, and 6.7 from stoppage overall. It proved the indisputable difference in the game.

Not even the Pies’ threatening transition — outscoring the Dogs 7.6 to 1.1 from the defensive half — could get it over the line in a throw-the-kitchen-sink-style six-goal final quarter.

“The reality is, when you don’t get the inside-50s, you have to bounce from the back,” Collingwood coach Craig McRae conceded post-game.

“Our centre-bounce stuff … that part of our game has been a rock in the shoe for most of the year.

“In these big games, the big moments, those habits that we’ve created throughout the year, we just haven’t been able to quite get that right.

“Most of the other parts of our game were in good order tonight.”

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And they were. The Pies won the turnover battle, were at their high-pressuring best, and looked like scoring every time they linked with handballs in counterpunch mode.

But when beaten so comprehensively in a critical area of the game, it’s almighty difficult to cancel that out completely in other facets.

In his last media conference of the season, McRae was asked point-blank whether Nick Daicos — who leg-drove to his very limit on Friday night — needed more help in the middle of the ground.

“I’m not sure he could have done much more this year,” McRae said.

“At the appropriate time, I hope he gets a breath and appreciates what he’s just done … there aren’t too many in the history of the game who’ve played a season as good as he has.

“Those that sit on the outside judge our list heavily, but we had most of our leaders out tonight … so, there’s a level of comfort in that, that we’ve got Perryman, Maynard, Moore, Elliott (to come back in).

“But we’re in the business of getting better, and at what level, I’m not sure, but we’ll be pushing hard. We’ve put ourselves in a position to have a salary cap, for the first time, that’s got a healthy bank balance.”

And Neale, who raked in a ridiculous 16 clearances and 16 first-possessions against the Pies almost a fortnight ago, is set to cash in.

Because while the names McRae mentioned would have also likely collectively dragged Collingwood over the line on Friday night, they won’t plug the club’s biggest current hole.

At age 33, Neale’s inside work still moves the needle, and, truthfully, it’s gone under the radar at Brisbane this year.

His 30.0 disposals per game mark this year is his best home-and-away result since 2022, and he’s averaging one more clearance per game than last season.

The grunt work he does will alleviate some of the tremendous load Daicos continues to carry weekly in Collingwood’s engine room.

It’s a move that makes almost too much sense.

It’ll have fans wondering ‘what if’ they had him at their disposal this year, but his near-certain arrival in the offseason will go a long way to ensuring the Pies are around the mark again in 2027.

‘ONLY BEVO’: NUANCE BEHIND DOGS’ WILD 79-MINUTE GAMBLE THAT PAID OFF

Luke Beveridge has never been afraid to do things differently. But even by his standards, this was bold.

In a three-point wildcard final win over Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs effectively chose to play one man down for more than half the match, with Ryan Gardner remarkably spending the opening 79 minutes and 15 seconds on the interchange.

It was just Gardner’s fourth AFL appearance in the past three seasons, but the 29-year-old was handed one of, if not the most unusual assignment of the year — essentially operating as an old-school substitute a full season after the AFL scrapped the sub rule.

“I thought the sub rule had gone!” Fox Footy caller Anthony Hudson quipped during the first half.

Australian rules Hall of Fame Legend Jason Dunstall suggested Gardner was effectively being held back as insurance for returning ruckman Tim English and key forward Aaron Naughton — both of whom were under injury clouds heading into the blockbuster.

But with the Bulldogs fighting for their season against the Magpies, Melbourne great Garry Lyon was stunned by the magnitude of Beveridge’s gamble.

“It’s a massive call. It’s a massive call to go 22 v 23 in a final,” Lyon said on Fox Footy.

“To play one down in a big final; incredible.”

Hudson and Gerard Whateley could only laugh: “Only Bevo.”

Gardner was finally unleashed halfway through the third term and immediately made his presence felt, producing an athletic leap at his first ruck contest to the delight of Bulldogs fans.

He finished with just three disposals from 16 per cent game time, but his contribution evidently went well beyond the stat sheet.

Gardner’s introduction allowed English to get crucial rest after his recent knee issue, while also freeing Rory Lobb to remain permanently forward alongside Aaron Naughton as the Dogs searched for a way through Collingwood’s defence.

And in a game decided by just three points, the plan ultimately paid off.

A refreshed English produced two crucial taps late in the contest, with Beveridge adamant Gardner’s willingness to sacrifice his own game had helped make it possible.

“We could see that in the second half the turnover game was frenetic, I thought ‘Gardy’ came on and really gave us something,” Beveridge told journalists post-game.

“We were able to keep Lobby forward a bit, he was providing contest because Ryan was giving us a chip out in the ruck.”

Beveridge explained there was nothing preventing clubs from effectively recreating the old substitute role under the new 23-player system, with Gardner always aware he could spend a significant chunk of the game watching from the sidelines.

“There’s no paperwork if you’re going to tactically use a player like that,” said.

“You can bring them on and off whenever you want which is great. We don’t do it very often.

“Ryan is such a great team player, he was always ready. It’s probably the first time we’ve done it like that but we thought he really helped us last week. I thought he was exceptional when he went on and competed in the ruck for us.”

Captain Marcus Bontempelli revealed the unusual strategy had been planned before the opening bounce, with the Dogs deciding one player taking a significant hit to his game time could be preferable to spreading reduced minutes across the entire side.

“It’s a tough thing with the 23rd player now, you either have a bunch of guys who have to miss a bit of game time, or you have one guy who sort of just has to take a hit,” Bontempelli said.

“The plan was always to hold him to start with, see how the game unfolded, and then we get to use him late.

“He comes in, makes a great contest, Tim comes back on fresh and all of a sudden impacts the game. That’s the amazing thing about Gardner. He’ll do anything for the team.”

It continues a remarkable late-season revival for Gardner, who played just one senior match between Round 20, 2023 and Round 8 this year.

Six days prior, the Burnie Dockers product played only 35 per cent game time against Melbourne, when he was used as a relief ruckman for Lobb with English sidelined.

Now the Dogs have effectively turned him into their finals point of difference — a 197cm break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option whose versatility allows Beveridge to manipulate the workloads and positioning of his more bonafide talls.

There is also some irony in Gardner suddenly finding himself with a role to play in September, who was the heartbreak story of the Bulldogs’ run to the 2021 Grand Final, where he featured in all three lead-in finals before being dropped for the decider against Melbourne.

Five years later, and out of contract at season’s end, Gardner could hardly have imagined his next finals assignment would involve sitting on the bench for more than an hour before being asked to help save the Dogs’ season.

But after Beveridge’s gamble survived the ultimate test against Collingwood, the fascinating question is whether he will dare roll the dice again against Adelaide next week.

As Bontempelli put it: “That’s what you need this time of the year, guys who are willing to do it.”

FEARS UNDERMANNED DOGS CAN’T RECOVER FOR RECORD RUN

The Western Bulldogs were out on their feet in the final quarter of that incredible wildcard final win over Collingwood.

And now they’ll face Adelaide in another do-or-die clash - but the Crows come in off the back of a week off.

The new wildcard final format may have proved thrilling for fans, but for clubs like the Bulldogs and Blues they’ll now face a historic fight of five straight finals wins to claim the premiership.

Results from the VFL, which has used a top-10 finals system for the past four years, suggest the wildcard winners have little hope.

Seven of the eight VFL wildcard winners have lost their elimination final, and by an average of 10 goals. This year it was Sydney losing by 55 points (after winning their wildcard final by 68 points) and Williamstown falling by 45 points (after winning their wildcard final by 38 points).

While it’s not a massive sample, it suggests there is something particularly valuable in a bye this late in the season, with the wildcard teams having gone straight from the home and away campaign into the finals.

That also makes sense when you consider preliminary finalists have been less successful since the pre-finals bye was introduced at AFL level; their week off for winning a qualifying final is less valuable when everyone gets a bye after Round 24.

Carlton will have to try and beat Geelong off a six-day break while Luke Beveridge’s men are on the back foot as they look to replace Matt Kennedy, who was concussed in that win over the Pies.

Fox Footy’s Jon Ralph warned the Dogs had a big call to make on who comes into the team - especially considering they essentially played “22 vs 23” in the wildcard final by giving Ryan Gardner limited minutes.

“The issue for the Bulldogs right now is Tom Liberatore is not yet ready to come back from knee surgery,” Ralph reported.

“Adam Treloar is a couple of weeks away from a calf and you wouldn’t imagine he would play finals.

“The emergencies for the Western Bulldogs tonight were the likes of Jordan Croft, Luke Cleary and Lachie Carmichael — none of them real regulars in the AFL.

“And Ryan Gardner played 16% of game time — he was effectively there as cover for any of those injured players in terms of key position stocks.”

Croft has managed just 19 games at the Dogs — including 17 this season, while Cleary is marginally more experienced with 25 games across five years. But his two games this year were spread in the space of seven games.

Carmichael meantime has managed just two AFL games after debuting in the dramatic Round 23 draw with Carlton.

Ralph said given the “fatigue” Bulldogs players experienced, and the injury clouds hanging over the likes of Aaron Naughton and Tim English in the post-season, big selection calls had to be made.

“So many players were getting regular treatment on the bench,” he said after the win over Collingwood.

“Normally, (teams get) a pre-finals bye but both the Western Bulldogs and the players from Collingwood were really in uncharted territory as to how these players would pull up.

“A lot of players were extremely fatigued through this contest.

“Whoever plays the Western Bulldogs, it will be a watch this space for the Western Bulldogs how they can pull up after an extraordinary final with so many players out on their legs.”

You add in the fact the Bulldogs have already endured the toughest home and away fixture just to make it to the wildcard - with all six of their double ups against teams that made the top 10, and it’s been a long year.

But AFL great Nathan Buckley was adamant if there’s a coach who can draw on a fatigued team’s best, it’s Luke Beveridge.

“He’s the only coach that’s done it from an elimination game, from eighth,” he said on Fox Footy.

“They know what it feels like to win four in four — that’s difficult.

“So add another game to that.”

‘EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION’ FOR DEES IN OFF-SEASON CHECKLIST ‘CHALLENGE’

Melbourne is armed with two top 10 picks and eyeing two young forwards from rival clubs as the Dees sets their sights on the off-season after charging from 14th into finals under Steven King.

So, are they ready to go for it? Or should they be playing the longer game?

Demons fans will be licking their wounds after Saturday night’s finals loss to Carlton ended a Melbourne season filled with so much promise with an emerging core.

Injuries to key position players were part of their undoing in the end. Blake Howes (arm) Matt Jefferson (knee), Jake Lever (neck) and Mihocek (neck) were all sidelined for Saturday’s final and Jacob van Rooyen missed through suspension.

But it was ultimately still a largely successful season in King’s first campaign at the helm in a transformation of the club on and off the field.

They were among the most active clubs last off-season including the departures of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver and additions of Jack Steele, Changkuoth Jiath, Brody Mihocek and Max Heath.

And the Dees are again looking to be aggressive.

Young Hawthorn forward Calsher Dear and North Melbourne’s former No. 4 pick Zane Duursma are on their radar after King said the club is prepared to dangle its early draft selections to acquire rival talent.

Melbourne was also linked to Bailey Humphrey prior to the young gun re-signing with Gold Coast and there’s been murmurings of a possible Jesse Hogan reunion.

Though the 2026 draft is crucially the last to not be compromised by Tasmania for the next few years, so the Dees could be more inclined to hold their picks if the right player isn’t available.

Meanwhile, veterans Tom McDonald and Jake Melksham called time on their careers and Christian Salem is a free agent.

“It will be evolution rather than revolution,” Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said of Melbourne’s off-season checklist.

“The Demons are not takers on Jesse Hogan, there was talk of some sort of reunion. They’re very keen on Zane Duursma and Calsher Dear and there is a world where they can get both those players.

“They have Gold Coast’s Pick 6 and Pick 10 in a draft that is hugely even and hugely exciting.

“Next year, they’ll set their sights on a couple of free agents, in the likes of Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell.

“It’s a constant build. There’s a lot of excitement and a lot of young kids coming through.

“This is the challenge. They’d be saying: ‘We’ve got picks 6 and 10, do we need to go for a Jesse Hogan? We’re so close’. And their best football is capable, you’d imagine, to win a premiership in 12 months.

“But they’d also be saying: ‘Tasmania is coming through, there might be another tsunami’. So if you bring two young kids in, bring in two young kids from other lists, in Duursma and Dear, if they can get those guys, with later picks or future first-rounders. You’re basically bulletproofing your list for the next few years. But it doesn’t necessarily help you win the premiership next year.

“That’s the push and pull of list management.”

Former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon bemoaned Melbourne’s costly Round 24 loss to the Western Bulldogs that saw it drop out of the top six in what he described as a virtual straight-sets finals exit.

He implored the club to stay active in the trade space to keep topping up its list.

“They’ve had a great year. They’re one game off fifth — if they (won) Round 24 they could be in a really strong position. But they’re out of the finals race now,” Dixon said.

“They’ve got some picks, which are great, but they need players. They’ve got to sustain this.

“They got the sugar hit under Steven King, he came in and brought a great style. He’s come from down the road (Geelong), where they’ve maintained success. So, he’s got to build that up with players.

“He did say he’s got a lot of experience into that middle rung, which is exactly where your core players are.

“Pro scouting right now is at its best. Finding the gold from other clubs and what your needs are.

“Everyone thought clubs like Hawthorn were going to bottom out, they’ve come up and maintained. You can do it, you can go and find the players that are going to help you maintain your success.”

But Dixon suggested the “workload is too much for Max Gawn at times” in the “twilight of his career.”

Dixon said the 34-year old ruckman, who’s coming off a record ninth All-Australian blazer, “needs more support” and also thinks they’re a forward short.

Granted, Mihocek missed the second half of the season with a serious neck injury.

“(Gawn) has to push forward, he pushes back. He was setting for 100 per cent game time in the last quarter (against Carlton). You just can’t do that at that age and the game is too demanding,” Dixon added.

“He needs more support. I think they need another forward, to be brutally honest, you can’t rely on what’s up there at the moment.

“They’ve got a bit of work to do, like any other club, but some of these young players have tasted finals and that’s what you want in your first year under Steven King.”

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