Ruud awakenings: Van Nistelrooy returns to Manchester with Leicester and United worse off

Ruud van Nistelrooy has always had a grand old time at Old Trafford, something that will no doubt be on the Leicester manager’s mind as his side travel to Manchester United for their FA Cup fourth-round tie on Friday.

As a player, the Dutchman scored 150 goals in fewer than 200 starts during an astonishing five‑year period at United. After his return as Erik ten Hag’s assistant coach last year, he briefly replaced his compatriot in October for a successful four-game interim spell in which United won three matches (scoring 11 and conceding three) and drew at home to Chelsea.

Much was expected of Van Nistelrooy when he was appointed by Leicester shortly after and the same could be said of Ruben Amorim at Manchester United. But a quick glance at some key metrics shows that both clubs have got worse since Van Nistelrooy left Old Trafford.

Under Steve Cooper Leicester had struggled at both ends of the pitch. They had the lowest xG (13.72) according to Opta with the fewest shots per game (9.8) in the Premier League when Cooper was sacked on 24 November and had conceded the third-highest xG against (26.6). Only two teams had let in more goals than Leicester (23) or conceded more shots per game (17.6). In almost all key stats, from points per game (0.64 to Cooper’s 1.08) to xG, Leicester are inferior under Van Nistelrooy.

To make a bad situation worse, Leicester have not made significant improvement in terms of tactical style and their struggles cannot be attributed to getting to grips with a new system, an argument that has perhaps mitigated some of United’s recent form. Leicester are having even less possession under Van Nistelrooy than under Cooper, still heavily reliant on a low block and over-reliant on counterattacking and the ageing Jamie Vardy.

There have been few highlights and even in one of Van Nistelrooy’s two league wins – 3-1 at home to West Ham – Leicester were completely dominated. West Ham had 31 shots, with an xG of 3.1. No team have had more shots than West Ham and lost a Premier League game in more than seven years. Leicester’s goalkeeper Mads Hermansen was inspired as he made seven saves, West Ham’s Danny Ings hit a post, Crysencio Summerville had a shot cleared off the Leicester goalline and the visitors had a goal ruled out for a foul by Tomas Soucek. “It’s frustrating and hard to explain,” said the now former West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui.

One might argue that Leicester should be applauded for being clinical and defending stoutly against West Ham but anyone who watched would tell you fortune more than played a part.

View image in fullscreen Photograph: Opta

The blame by no means lies solely with Van Nistelrooy, with a club threatened by profitability and sustainability rules failing to address urgent issues in the January transfer market. Leicester sold Tom Cannon to Sheffield United for £10m but made only one signing: a back-up right-back in Woyo Coulibaly, a sensible but fairly uninspiring £3m purchase from Parma. Van Nistelrooy remains well short of quality and options in other key areas, particularly at centre-back, in attack (as backup to Vardy) and on the wing, with the team struggling for pace and creativity since the November injury to Abdul Fatawu. Every other relegation-threatened club spent more in January – Wolves splurged £42.6m, Ipswich £21.5m (plus the loan signings of Julio Enciso and Ben Godfrey) and Southampton £4.2m.

Amorim’s United tenure is more complicated to analyse, with the coach attempting to implement a new style under heightened pressure, compounded by the weight of midweek European fixtures, problematic off-field issues and transfer speculation. Now he must handle a season-ending injury to Lisandro Martínez. But when Amorim’s numbers are compared with Ten Hag’s, they are stark: this season United have earned fewer league points per game under the Portuguese (1.07) than Ten Hag (1.22) and have conceded more goals per game and had fewer shots on target.

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Amorim has made some missteps, tactically (for example, playing Kobbie Mainoo as a false 9 and persisting with Diogo Dalot at left wing-back in Sunday’s home defeat by Crystal Palace) and in his handling of the media. But while the league season is a write-off, with United almost as close to Leicester in the relegation zone as they are to another Europa League qualification, the narrative remains that United are moving towards a rebuild, albeit at a painful pace.

United’s only realistic routes to a trophy and European qualification remain in the Europa League (the winner of which qualifies for the Champions League) and the FA Cup (the winner of which qualifies for the Europa League). Friday’s tie is crucial to United’s season and Amorim will be desperately hoping that Van Nistelrooy does not have another fruitful night under the lights at Old Trafford.

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